Cádiz: one seat fewer, Adelante Andalucía's debut and a last seat contested by four parties
Cádiz elects 8 members of Congress, one fewer than in 2023. The model gives three to the conservative People's Party (PP), two to the Socialists (PSOE), two to the hard-right Vox and one to Adelante Andalucía, the Andalusian left-regionalist party making its general-election debut in its strongest province, where it wins a seat in 63% of simulations. Frente Amplio, which held a seat in 2023, keeps it in only 3%. And the last seat is contested by four parties.
21 October 2026 · Miguel · Leer en español
Few Spanish provinces have changed hands as often as Cádiz, on Andalusia’s southern Atlantic coast. In 2008 the PSOE won 51% of the vote here; in April 2019 the PP came fourth; in November 2019 Vox came second; and in 2023 the PP won by a point and a half. November 29 brings three new elements: one seat fewer (8 instead of 9, after seats were reallocated to population), the debut of Adelante Andalucía, whose strongest province this is, and a last seat more open than in almost any other district.
Seven elections, a map that keeps changing
| Election | Seats | Top parties (% of valid votes) | Turnout | Like Spain |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2008 | PSOE 51.1%PP 38.2%IU/Podemos/Sumar 4.8% | 67.4% | ✓ | |
| 2011 | PP 47.1%PSOE 32.8%IU/Podemos/Sumar 8.7% | 63.8% | ✓ | |
| 2015 | PSOE 28.0%PP 27.7%IU/Podemos/Sumar 26.2% | 65.7% | ✗ | |
| 2016 | PP 32.3%PSOE 28.5%IU/Podemos/Sumar 21.2% | 62.6% | ✓ | |
| Apr. 2019 | PSOE 31.5%Cs 19.7%IU/Podemos/Sumar 16.6% | 67.6% | ✓ | |
| Nov. 2019 | PSOE 30.6%Vox 21.3%PP 18.0% | 62.3% | ✓ | |
| 2023 | PP 34.8%PSOE 33.2%Vox 15.2% | 63.3% | ✓ | |
| 2026 forecast | PP 31.5% (24.2–39.2)PSOE 24.0% (17.7–30.8)Vox 21.7% (15.7–28.4) | 68.5% | – |
2026: PSOE seat no. 1, 100% · PP seat no. 1, 100% · PP seat no. 2, 100% · Vox seat no. 1, 100% · PSOE seat no. 2, 98% · PP seat no. 3, 92% · Vox seat no. 2, 91% · ADELANTE seat no. 1, 63%; the striped seat is a toss-up.
- 2008: the PSOE wins with 51% and takes 5 of 9 seats.
- 2011: a swing to the PP (47%), which takes 5 of 8.
- 2015: a three-way tie between the PSOE (28.0%), the PP (27.7%) and Podemos and its allies (26.2%), with the centrist Ciudadanos at 15%.
- April 2019: the PSOE wins (31.5%) and the PP drops to fourth (14.9%), behind Ciudadanos and Unidas Podemos.
- November 2019: Vox comes second with 21% and wins two seats.
- 2023: the PP regains first place (34.8% against the PSOE’s 33.2%) and takes 4 of 9 seats.
The forecast: 3, 2, 2 and 1
The model gives the PP 32% of the vote in Cádiz (between 24% and 39% with 95% probability), the PSOE 24% (18–31%), Vox 22% (16–28%) and Adelante Andalucía 10% (5–19%); Frente Amplio stays at 5% and Podemos at 2%. Expected turnout is 69% (63–74%), five points higher than in 2023.
In the central scenario the split is PP 3, PSOE 2, Vox 2 and Adelante Andalucía 1:
- The PP wins three seats in 75% of simulations and four in 17%.
- The PSOE wins two in 74% and three in 23%.
- Vox wins two in 83%, repeating its November 2019 result.
- Adelante Andalucía gets in in 63% of simulations. This is its best province: in the Andalusian regional election of May 17 it won 14.4% here.
- Frente Amplio keeps the seat Sumar won in 2023 in only 3% of simulations.
The last seat is shared among four: the PP wins it in 36% of simulations, the PSOE in 24%, Vox in 23% and Adelante in 17%. In half of the cases it is decided by fewer than 15,000 votes.
Town by town
Cádiz is a province of cities: 45 municipalities, whose ten largest hold three in four voters. In 2008 the PSOE won 41 of them and in April 2019 it won 44; in 2023 it won 25, against 19 for the PP and one for Sumar. Between November 2019 and 2023, 19 changed hands.
For 2026, the municipal estimate makes the PP the favorite in 33 municipalities (21 leaning and 12 toss-ups), the PSOE in 11 (8 and 3) and Vox in one, leaning. None is rated safe and 15 are toss-ups: the province is more open than its provincial total suggests. Compared with 2023, 16 would change hands, almost all from the PSOE to the PP (14).
Among the ten largest cities, the PP is the favorite in nine:
- Leaning: in Jerez (77%), El Puerto de Santa María (80%), Sanlúcar (65%) and Chiclana (61%), and also in Arcos de la Frontera (61%) and the city of Cádiz itself (62%), which the PSOE won in 2023.
- Toss-up: in Algeciras and La Línea, which the PP won in 2023, and in San Fernando, which the PSOE won by four tenths of a point.
- The PSOE is the favorite only in Puerto Real (77%).
| Municipality | Voters | 2023 | Lead | 2026 favorite | First in | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jerez de la Frontera | 169,493 | PP | 4.4 pts | PP | 77% | Leaning |
| Cádiz | 94,658 | PSOE | 2.0 pts | PP | 62% | Leaning |
| Algeciras | 90,678 | PP | 6.9 pts | PP | 48% | Toss-up |
| San Fernando | 76,608 | PSOE | 0.4 pts | PP | 58% | Toss-up |
| Puerto de Santa María, El | 70,634 | PP | 9.2 pts | PP | 80% | Leaning |
| Chiclana de la Frontera | 68,318 | PP | 5.5 pts | PP | 61% | Leaning |
| Sanlúcar de Barrameda | 55,612 | PP | 1.7 pts | PP | 65% | Leaning |
| Línea de la Concepción, La | 49,215 | PP | 3.4 pts | PP | 58% | Toss-up |
| Puerto Real | 33,694 | PSOE | 18.7 pts | PSOE | 77% | Leaning |
| Arcos de la Frontera | 25,055 | PSOE | 1.6 pts | PP | 61% | Leaning |
Lead: points over the runner-up in 2023. "First in": share of 4,000 simulations in which the favorite finishes first in the municipality.
Two caveats. The municipal estimate starts from the 2023 vote and shifts it until the province matches the forecast, with an error of its own in each municipality. And because Adelante Andalucía did not run in the 2023 general election, its vote is counted with the other parties on these maps: there is no municipal starting point to allocate it.
Who votes in Cádiz
Cádiz has 1,267,916 inhabitants on 7,442 km²: 170 per square kilometer, against 99 in Spain. Almost nobody lives in small villages: only 2.6% live in municipalities of fewer than 5,000 people (12% in Spain). It is also somewhat younger than average: 20% are 65 or older (21% in Spain) and there are 157 people over 65 for every 100 under 15, against 171.
| Indicator | Cádiz | Spain | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Densidad | 170.4 | 98.6 | INE, Continuous Population Statistics (table 59591) and census tracts, July 1, 2026 |
| Municipios | 45 | 8,132 | INE, municipal register via the Household Income Atlas, 2024 |
| Población en municipios de menos de 5.000 habitantes | 2.6% | 11.8% | INE, municipal register via the Household Income Atlas, 2024 |
| Índice de envejecimiento (65 y más por cada 100 menores de 15) | 157 | 171 | INE, Continuous Population Statistics (table 59591), July 1, 2026 |
| Población de 65 años o más | 20.1% | 21.2% | INE, Continuous Population Statistics (table 59591), July 1, 2026 |
| Población de nacionalidad extranjera | 6.0% | 14.9% | INE, Continuous Population Statistics (table 59591), July 1, 2026 |
| Renta neta media por persona | €13,077 | €15,948 | INE, Household Income Distribution Atlas, 2024 |
| Renta neta media por hogar | €33,964 | €40,605 | INE, Household Income Distribution Atlas, 2024 |
| Con estudios superiores completados | 26.0% | 31.9% | INE, 2021 Population and Housing Census (via ineAtlas.data), 2021 |
| Tasa de paro | 31.6% | 17.2% | INE, 2021 Population and Housing Census (via ineAtlas.data), 2021 |
| Tasa de empleo | 37.7% | 46.8% | INE, 2021 Population and Housing Census (via ineAtlas.data), 2021 |
| Ocupados en industria | 11.9% | 13.6% | INE, Labor Force Survey (table 79337), 2026T2 |
| Ocupados en construcción | 8.0% | 7.1% | INE, Labor Force Survey (table 79337), 2026T2 |
| Ocupados en servicios | 76.9% | 75.8% | INE, Labor Force Survey (table 79337), 2026T2 |
Three features help explain how it votes:
- Unemployment. According to the 2021 Census, the unemployment rate is 32%, almost double Spain’s (17%), and only 38% of people aged 16 and over have a job (47% in Spain). It is the province’s most distinctive trait.
- Lower income and fewer graduates. Income per person (€13,077) is 18% below the Spanish level, and university graduates are 26% of the adult population, against 32%.
- Few foreign residents. Only 6% of residents hold a foreign nationality, against 15% in Spain: the electoral roll closely resembles the population.
How we calculated it
- History. Official Congress results (BOE) from 2008 to 2023, by party family. Municipal results come from the Interior Ministry’s polling-station data and, adding the overseas vote, exactly reproduce the BOE totals in all seven elections. San Martín del Tesorillo, split from Jiménez de la Frontera in 2018, has results of its own only since 2019.
- Provincial forecast. The altnalysis forecast of October 21: 4,000 of its 50,000 simulations for Cádiz, with the 8 seats of 2026 (Royal Decree 806/2026).
- Municipal estimate. In each simulation, each municipality’s 2023 vote is shifted party by party on a logistic scale until the provincial total (excluding the overseas vote, kept as in 2023) matches the simulation; then a municipal error with variance a + b / voters is added, fitted on the changes between the 2015 and 2023 general elections. Safe: the favorite comes first in 95% of simulations or more; leaning, between 60% and 95%; toss-up, below 60%.
- Sociology. INE: Continuous Population Statistics (July 1, 2026, provisional), Household Income Distribution Atlas (2024), 2021 Census and Labour Force Survey (second quarter of 2026). Municipal boundaries: es-atlas (IGN).
- Code.
articulo_circ.py 11, in the altnalysis repository.