Conditional scenario
Simulator
Conditional scenario: you set the national vote and turnout; the range only reflects how the vote is spread across provinces. The controls below start from the model forecast. This is not a prediction: it is what would happen if your assumptions held.
Assumptions
National vote (% of residents' valid votes)
By province
The offset shifts each province's turnout (in points) from what the national scenario implies; who votes changes with it.
| Province | Seats | Turnout | Offset | Seats by party |
|---|