The overseas vote (CERA)
CERA voters cast their ballot in the province where they were last registered. The requested-vote system ended in 2023 and turnout has recovered; meanwhile the overseas roll has grown sharply. This is what is known before the model estimates it.
Overseas turnout, 2008–2023
Between 2011 and 2019 overseas voters had to apply for a ballot (voto rogado) and turnout fell from about 32% to 5–7%. In 2023, without that step, it rose again.
How the vote splits, election by election
Share of valid CERA votes, national total. Frente Amplio (key SUMAR) groups the IU / Podemos / Sumar lineage; UPN is counted with the PP; Cs is shown separately only for 2015–2019.
Galicia: where the overseas vote weighs most
In Ourense CERA electors are 30.9% of the provincial roll; in Lugo, 22.6%. Historical emigration to the Americas and Europe and recent nationality acquisition by descendants sustain that weight.
By province
Select a header to sort. The census share is CERA electors over all electors in the province (CER plus CERA) on the 2026 consultation roll. The winner is the 2023 leader among the main parties, excluding "Others" and blank votes.
| Province | CERA % of roll | Electors 2026 | Change since 2023 | Turnout 2023 | 2023 winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ourense | 30.9 | 111,124 | +8.0 % | 5.7 % | PP |
| Lugo | 22.6 | 76,919 | +11.3 % | 5.4 % | PP |
| Pontevedra | 16.2 | 150,148 | +9.8 % | 7.2 % | PP |
| Coruña (A) | 16.1 | 178,478 | +9.2 % | 6.4 % | PP |
| Zamora | 14.9 | 24,104 | +15.7 % | 8.4 % | PP |
| Asturias | 14.7 | 143,588 | +16.3 % | 7.1 % | PP |
| Santa Cruz de Tenerife | 13.5 | 125,100 | +16.7 % | 4.3 % | PP |
| León | 12.9 | 55,080 | +13.2 % | 8.2 % | PSOE |
| Salamanca | 12.0 | 36,586 | +15.6 % | 8.0 % | PSOE |
| Soria | 11.8 | 9,060 | +24.0 % | 9.3 % | PP |
| Melilla | 10.8 | 6,879 | +15.3 % | 3.0 % | PP |
| Almería | 9.9 | 53,278 | +19.2 % | 6.7 % | PSOE |
| Cantabria | 9.5 | 49,873 | +21.0 % | 8.4 % | PP |
| Madrid | 9.0 | 498,874 | +32.5 % | 11.9 % | PP |
| Rioja (La) | 8.2 | 21,307 | +20.3 % | 8.4 % | PP |
| Granada | 7.9 | 62,425 | +17.1 % | 8.7 % | PSOE |
| Burgos | 7.4 | 22,373 | +18.6 % | 11.4 % | PSOE |
| Palmas (Las) | 7.1 | 66,235 | +19.0 % | 4.7 % | PSOE |
| Ávila | 7.0 | 9,602 | +14.7 % | 10.6 % | PSOE |
| Navarra | 6.9 | 36,781 | +22.8 % | 9.4 % | PP |
| Lleida | 6.7 | 21,909 | +19.9 % | 9.6 % | PSOE |
| Palencia | 6.4 | 8,737 | +16.3 % | 10.3 % | PSOE |
| Barcelona | 6.0 | 265,687 | +22.1 % | 9.9 % | PSOE |
| Gipuzkoa | 6.0 | 35,927 | +20.6 % | 14.6 % | PSOE |
| Málaga | 5.7 | 74,033 | +21.7 % | 9.2 % | PP |
| Teruel | 5.5 | 5,891 | +15.4 % | 8.7 % | PSOE |
| Huesca | 5.5 | 9,675 | +18.8 % | 11.8 % | PSOE |
| Cáceres | 5.5 | 18,535 | +10.8 % | 9.2 % | PSOE |
| Bizkaia | 5.3 | 50,401 | +18.8 % | 8.5 % | PSOE |
| Girona | 5.2 | 30,162 | +25.6 % | 9.7 % | PSOE |
| Ceuta | 5.1 | 3,357 | +12.8 % | 3.0 % | PSOE |
| Balears (Illes) | 4.8 | 42,115 | +28.2 % | 7.3 % | PSOE |
| Tarragona | 4.3 | 26,598 | +23.3 % | 9.2 % | PSOE |
| Alicante/Alacant | 4.1 | 55,464 | +22.4 % | 9.9 % | PSOE |
| Zaragoza | 4.1 | 30,903 | +16.4 % | 15.3 % | PSOE |
| Valencia/València | 4.0 | 83,234 | +18.2 % | 10.7 % | PSOE |
| Valladolid | 4.0 | 17,741 | +20.4 % | 14.7 % | PSOE |
| Murcia | 3.9 | 44,626 | +18.2 % | 9.4 % | PSOE |
| Araba/Álava | 3.9 | 10,330 | +26.7 % | 13.5 % | PSOE |
| Segovia | 3.4 | 4,178 | +14.6 % | 15.5 % | PSOE |
| Cádiz | 3.4 | 35,052 | +12.7 % | 9.2 % | PP |
| Córdoba | 3.2 | 20,911 | +9.1 % | 11.1 % | PSOE |
| Guadalajara | 3.0 | 6,227 | +20.1 % | 14.6 % | PSOE |
| Castellón/Castelló | 2.9 | 13,116 | +20.0 % | 13.2 % | PSOE |
| Albacete | 2.9 | 8,961 | +11.1 % | 10.7 % | PSOE |
| Jaén | 2.9 | 14,964 | +10.5 % | 11.5 % | PSOE |
| Toledo | 2.8 | 15,686 | +18.3 % | 12.9 % | PSOE |
| Sevilla | 2.7 | 43,565 | +13.1 % | 12.2 % | PSOE |
| Cuenca | 2.5 | 3,703 | +13.7 % | 11.4 % | PSOE |
| Badajoz | 2.4 | 13,090 | +7.9 % | 12.5 % | PSOE |
| Huelva | 2.3 | 9,245 | +12.8 % | 8.4 % | PSOE |
| Ciudad Real | 2.0 | 7,808 | +11.3 % | 13.6 % | PSOE |
Sources: INE, Oficina del Censo Electoral, Elecciones a Cortes Generales 2026, tabla 3 (censo de consulta); 2008–2023 electors and votes: Oficina del Censo Electoral and Ministry of the Interior. The consultation roll may change until the final roll is closed.
Context: the 2011 reform of the electoral law introduced the requested vote; it was abolished in 2022 and 2023 was the first general election without it. Since then the Democratic Memory Law (2022) has let descendants of exiles acquire nationality, and many now appear on the CERA roll. This block describes data; the 2026 overseas-vote estimate will be added with the model.