Analysis
In-depth pieces on the campaign, the forecast and one constituency in detail every day. Most articles are in Spanish.
Catalonia Without Aliança or the CUP on the Ballot: Who Inherits Their Votes, and What It Means for Vox, ERC and the Comuns
Aliança Catalana voters split between Junts and Vox, and one in five would not vote or is undecided; CUP voters lean toward ERC and the Comuns. Turnout is not on track to collapse: our model expects it to beat 2023. Vox nearly doubles its share, fed more by former PP voters and non-voters than by Aliança, and between the Comuns and ERC, votes are flowing in only one direction.
21 October 2026 · MiguelSpain's Public Pollster Under Review: Where the CIS Misses, Why, and How to Read It
We reviewed the nine elections since 2023 for which the CIS ran a pre-election survey. Its estimate overstated the Socialists (PSOE) by 2.3 points on average and fell short for the conservative PP (1.9) and Vox (1.4). The skew does not come from its modeling: it is already in the raw answers of its sample. Once adjusted, the CIS is still a useful source, and that is how we use it.
21 October 2026 · MiguelHuesca, the Province That Votes Like Spain: Its Third Seat Is a Coin Flip Between the PP and Vox
Since 2008, the party with the most votes in Huesca has always been the party with the most votes in Spain. For November 29, our model gives one seat to the conservative People's Party (PP) and one to the Socialists (PSOE), and leaves the third as a coin flip: Vox wins it in 49% of simulations and the PP in 47%. Town by town, the PP starts as the favorite in 158 of 202 municipalities.
21 October 2026 · MiguelLeader or Party? How Much Each Candidate Drives Their Own Party's Vote
Among Spaniards who voted for the Socialists in 2023, the score they give Pedro Sánchez almost decides whether they will do it again. For the People's Party, Alberto Núñez Feijóo's score matters much less; Santiago Abascal holds on to Vox voters, and Yolanda Díaz's score barely moves Sumar's. That is what 32,000 interviews by Spain's public polling institute show.
21 October 2026 · MiguelThe Neighborhoods That Could Flip on November 29: Spain's Electoral Map, Section by Section
We applied our forecast to each of Spain's 36,459 census sections. Nearly one in seven voters lives in a section whose favorite is no longer the party that won there in 2023, almost always a shift from the Socialists (PSOE) to the conservative People's Party (PP), and the hard-right Vox starts as the favorite in more than 1,200 sections, up from 65 three years ago. Here are the areas on the edge and the provinces where a local poll would move the most seats.
21 October 2026 · MiguelSwing Spain: Half of All Voters Live in Neighborhoods That Have Changed Sides Since 2008
We tracked 26,395 census sections through Spain's seven general elections since 2008. In the sections that are home to half of the electorate, the conservative People's Party (PP) and the Socialists (PSOE) have traded the lead at least twice. This swing Spain is middle class, with more education than income, and it weighs most exactly where the last seat will be decided on November 29: Tenerife, Huesca, the Balearic Islands, Ciudad Real, Cantabria, Valladolid and Asturias.