The last seat
In each constituency the last seat allocated is the easiest to flip. Here, by election, the votes the runner-up would need to take directly from the winner to flip it, in votes and as a share of valid votes.
Last seat across the 50,000 forecast simulations: who wins it, who falls just short and how many votes they would need. It is the figure most sensitive to small changes.
Ceuta 1 seatsPP 71 %Vox 56 %2,0946 %
Who wins the last seat
Who falls just short
Votes the challenger would need (median; interquartile range 971–3,592): 5.58 % of valid votes; 6 % of a seat (3–10).
Lleida 4 seatsPSC 34 %Vox 23 %3,2516 %
Who wins the last seat
Who falls just short
Votes the challenger would need (median; interquartile range 1,428–6,262): 1.53 % of valid votes; 6 % of a seat (3–12).
Ávila 3 seatsVox 36 %PP 48 %2,8589 %
Who wins the last seat
Who falls just short
Votes the challenger would need (median; interquartile range 1,250–5,627): 2.87 % of valid votes; 9 % of a seat (4–17).
Navarra 5 seatsPSOE 34 %PP 29 %7,22110 %
Who wins the last seat
Who falls just short
Votes the challenger would need (median; interquartile range 3,052–14,785): 1.96 % of valid votes; 10 % of a seat (4–20).
Segovia 3 seatsPP 49 %Vox 51 %3,12310 %
Who wins the last seat
Who falls just short
Votes the challenger would need (median; interquartile range 1,464–5,640): 3.39 % of valid votes; 10 % of a seat (5–18).
Huesca 3 seatsVox 46 %PP 44 %4,29710 %
Who wins the last seat
Who falls just short
Votes the challenger would need (median; interquartile range 1,931–8,249): 3.46 % of valid votes; 10 % of a seat (5–20).
Palencia 3 seatsPP 58 %Vox 52 %3,48511 %
Who wins the last seat
Who falls just short
Votes the challenger would need (median; interquartile range 1,630–6,245): 3.51 % of valid votes; 11 % of a seat (5–19).
Teruel 3 seatsVox 55 %PP 58 %2,75911 %
Who wins the last seat
Who falls just short
Votes the challenger would need (median; interquartile range 1,168–5,528): 3.58 % of valid votes; 11 % of a seat (5–22).
Zamora 3 seatsPP 61 %Vox 60 %3,78311 %
Who wins the last seat
Who falls just short
Votes the challenger would need (median; interquartile range 1,831–6,521): 3.67 % of valid votes; 11 % of a seat (5–19).
Gipuzkoa 6 seatsEH Bildu 32 %EAJ-PNV 26 %7,60911 %
Who wins the last seat
Who falls just short
Votes the challenger would need (median; interquartile range 3,106–16,413): 1.87 % of valid votes; 11 % of a seat (5–24).
Pontevedra 7 seatsPP 37 %PSOE 26 %9,37111 %
Who wins the last seat
Who falls just short
Votes the challenger would need (median; interquartile range 3,727–22,033): 1.60 % of valid votes; 11 % of a seat (5–26).
Tarragona 6 seatsPSC 48 %PP 18 %8,58212 %
Who wins the last seat
Who falls just short
Votes the challenger would need (median; interquartile range 3,623–16,950): 2.03 % of valid votes; 12 % of a seat (5–24).
Araba/Álava 4 seatsEAJ-PNV 33 %PSOE 34 %5,67012 %
Who wins the last seat
Who falls just short
Votes the challenger would need (median; interquartile range 2,258–11,808): 3.10 % of valid votes; 12 % of a seat (5–26).
Barcelona 32 seatsPSC 35 %PP 19 %11,76912 %
Who wins the last seat
Who falls just short
Votes the challenger would need (median; interquartile range 4,744–25,135): 0.39 % of valid votes; 12 % of a seat (5–27).
Bizkaia 8 seatsEAJ-PNV 30 %EH Bildu 24 %10,32613 %
Who wins the last seat
Who falls just short
Votes the challenger would need (median; interquartile range 4,215–21,950): 1.56 % of valid votes; 13 % of a seat (5–27).
Coruña (A) 8 seatsPP 41 %PSOE 28 %11,72414 %
Who wins the last seat
Who falls just short
Votes the challenger would need (median; interquartile range 4,418–27,220): 1.70 % of valid votes; 14 % of a seat (5–32).
Rioja (La) 4 seatsVox 47 %PP 36 %6,30214 %
Who wins the last seat
Who falls just short
Votes the challenger would need (median; interquartile range 2,541–13,278): 3.45 % of valid votes; 14 % of a seat (6–29).
Girona 6 seatsVox 26 %PSC 41 %8,81014 %
Who wins the last seat
Who falls just short
Votes the challenger would need (median; interquartile range 3,190–20,053): 2.31 % of valid votes; 14 % of a seat (5–32).
Sevilla 12 seatsPP 32 %PSOE 28 %13,42714 %
Who wins the last seat
Who falls just short
Votes the challenger would need (median; interquartile range 5,105–28,468): 1.17 % of valid votes; 14 % of a seat (5–30).
Asturias 7 seatsPP 36 %PSOE 32 %12,50714 %
Who wins the last seat
Who falls just short
Votes the challenger would need (median; interquartile range 5,205–25,453): 2.04 % of valid votes; 14 % of a seat (6–29).
Ourense 4 seatsPP 63 %PSOE 38 %6,79514 %
Who wins the last seat
Who falls just short
Votes the challenger would need (median; interquartile range 3,105–12,898): 3.63 % of valid votes; 14 % of a seat (7–28).
Córdoba 6 seatsPP 43 %Vox 39 %11,35015 %
Who wins the last seat
Who falls just short
Votes the challenger would need (median; interquartile range 4,930–21,769): 2.43 % of valid votes; 15 % of a seat (6–28).
Málaga 11 seatsPP 37 %Vox 25 %11,53515 %
Who wins the last seat
Who falls just short
Votes the challenger would need (median; interquartile range 4,320–25,174): 1.34 % of valid votes; 15 % of a seat (6–32).
Cuenca 3 seatsVox 62 %PP 58 %5,69515 %
Who wins the last seat
Who falls just short
Votes the challenger would need (median; interquartile range 2,331–11,275): 4.96 % of valid votes; 15 % of a seat (6–29).
Balears (Illes) 8 seatsPP 35 %PSOE 30 %10,51715 %
Who wins the last seat
Who falls just short
Votes the challenger would need (median; interquartile range 4,147–22,112): 1.92 % of valid votes; 15 % of a seat (6–32).
Palmas (Las) 8 seatsPSOE 32 %PP 32 %11,04015 %
Who wins the last seat
Who falls just short
Votes the challenger would need (median; interquartile range 4,547–21,907): 1.92 % of valid votes; 15 % of a seat (6–31).
Lugo 4 seatsPP 66 %PSOE 43 %7,65316 %
Who wins the last seat
Who falls just short
Votes the challenger would need (median; interquartile range 3,538–14,173): 3.89 % of valid votes; 16 % of a seat (7–29).
Castellón/Castelló 5 seatsPSOE 50 %PP 33 %10,60616 %
Who wins the last seat
Who falls just short
Votes the challenger would need (median; interquartile range 4,553–20,375): 3.21 % of valid votes; 16 % of a seat (7–31).
Melilla 1 seatsPP 99 %Vox 72 %5,75017 %
Who wins the last seat
Who falls just short
Votes the challenger would need (median; interquartile range 4,207–7,312): 17.43 % of valid votes; 17 % of a seat (13–22).
Cáceres 4 seatsPP 47 %PSOE 59 %10,55618 %
Who wins the last seat
Who falls just short
Votes the challenger would need (median; interquartile range 4,411–19,308): 4.40 % of valid votes; 18 % of a seat (7–32).
Valladolid 5 seatsPSOE 45 %PP 41 %11,70018 %
Who wins the last seat
Who falls just short
Votes the challenger would need (median; interquartile range 5,295–21,419): 3.52 % of valid votes; 18 % of a seat (8–32).
Almería 6 seatsPP 49 %PSOE 43 %10,31318 %
Who wins the last seat
Who falls just short
Votes the challenger would need (median; interquartile range 4,675–18,455): 2.97 % of valid votes; 18 % of a seat (8–32).
Santa Cruz de Tenerife 7 seatsPP 40 %PSOE 36 %13,65618 %
Who wins the last seat
Who falls just short
Votes the challenger would need (median; interquartile range 5,298–29,060): 2.54 % of valid votes; 18 % of a seat (7–38).
Soria 2 seatsPSOE 87 %PP 70 %4,56718 %
Who wins the last seat
Who falls just short
Votes the challenger would need (median; interquartile range 2,322–7,459): 8.92 % of valid votes; 18 % of a seat (9–29).
Cádiz 8 seatsPP 36 %PSOE 27 %15,35518 %
Who wins the last seat
Who falls just short
Votes the challenger would need (median; interquartile range 5,869–31,280): 2.24 % of valid votes; 18 % of a seat (7–37).
Zaragoza 7 seatsVox 32 %PP 35 %14,17618 %
Who wins the last seat
Who falls just short
Votes the challenger would need (median; interquartile range 5,731–29,561): 2.57 % of valid votes; 18 % of a seat (7–37).
Toledo 6 seatsVox 34 %PP 46 %12,71618 %
Who wins the last seat
Who falls just short
Votes the challenger would need (median; interquartile range 5,547–24,178): 3.03 % of valid votes; 18 % of a seat (8–35).
Valencia/València 16 seatsPP 36 %PSOE 30 %18,21919 %
Who wins the last seat
Who falls just short
Votes the challenger would need (median; interquartile range 7,601–35,698): 1.19 % of valid votes; 19 % of a seat (8–38).
León 4 seatsPP 43 %PSOE 60 %13,60920 %
Who wins the last seat
Who falls just short
Votes the challenger would need (median; interquartile range 5,626–24,644): 4.88 % of valid votes; 20 % of a seat (8–35).
Alicante/Alacant 12 seatsPP 38 %PSOE 30 %15,86520 %
Who wins the last seat
Who falls just short
Votes the challenger would need (median; interquartile range 6,263–30,814): 1.64 % of valid votes; 20 % of a seat (8–39).
Ciudad Real 5 seatsPSOE 51 %PP 44 %11,39720 %
Who wins the last seat
Who falls just short
Votes the challenger would need (median; interquartile range 5,112–20,747): 3.94 % of valid votes; 20 % of a seat (9–36).
Cantabria 5 seatsPSOE 47 %PP 45 %14,46120 %
Who wins the last seat
Who falls just short
Votes the challenger would need (median; interquartile range 6,504–25,936): 3.98 % of valid votes; 20 % of a seat (9–36).
Madrid 38 seatsPP 41 %PSOE 28 %20,87720 %
Who wins the last seat
Who falls just short
Votes the challenger would need (median; interquartile range 8,090–41,572): 0.53 % of valid votes; 20 % of a seat (8–40).
Huelva 5 seatsPSOE 61 %PP 46 %11,10320 %
Who wins the last seat
Who falls just short
Votes the challenger would need (median; interquartile range 4,919–20,223): 4.07 % of valid votes; 20 % of a seat (9–37).
Murcia 10 seatsPP 44 %Vox 35 %18,01822 %
Who wins the last seat
Who falls just short
Votes the challenger would need (median; interquartile range 7,470–33,817): 2.22 % of valid votes; 22 % of a seat (9–42).
Jaén 5 seatsPSOE 63 %PP 52 %17,46423 %
Who wins the last seat
Who falls just short
Votes the challenger would need (median; interquartile range 7,738–30,675): 4.63 % of valid votes; 23 % of a seat (10–41).
Granada 7 seatsVox 35 %PP 38 %20,26527 %
Who wins the last seat
Who falls just short
Votes the challenger would need (median; interquartile range 8,201–35,617): 3.79 % of valid votes; 27 % of a seat (11–46).
Burgos 4 seatsPP 46 %PSOE 59 %14,38727 %
Who wins the last seat
Who falls just short
Votes the challenger would need (median; interquartile range 6,513–23,293): 6.80 % of valid votes; 27 % of a seat (12–44).
Badajoz 5 seatsPSOE 58 %PP 55 %27,98935 %
Who wins the last seat
Who falls just short
Votes the challenger would need (median; interquartile range 12,944–45,164): 6.99 % of valid votes; 35 % of a seat (16–56).
Albacete 4 seatsPP 74 %PSOE 58 %20,12635 %
Who wins the last seat
Who falls just short
Votes the challenger would need (median; interquartile range 11,098–29,339): 8.84 % of valid votes; 35 % of a seat (20–52).
Guadalajara 3 seatsVox 51 %PP 76 %19,99739 %
Who wins the last seat
Who falls just short
Votes the challenger would need (median; interquartile range 11,691–27,605): 12.90 % of valid votes; 39 % of a seat (23–53).
Salamanca 4 seatsVox 45 %PP 49 %24,10047 %
Who wins the last seat
Who falls just short
Votes the challenger would need (median; interquartile range 14,281–32,688): 11.78 % of valid votes; 47 % of a seat (28–64).
Challenger: the party with the highest D'Hondt quotient among those not winning the last seat, other than the holder. '% of a seat': votes needed divided by the average price of a seat (valid votes ÷ seats), so constituencies of different size are comparable (residents and CERA).
| Constituency | M | Last seat | Runner-up | Transfer | % valid | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Madrid | 37 | PP | PSOE | 794 | 0.02 | |
| Cantabria | 5 | VOX | PP | 101 | 0.03 | |
| Girona | 6 | CiU/Junts | PP | 190 | 0.06 | |
| Tarragona | 6 | CiU/Junts | PSOE | 312 | 0.09 | |
| Málaga | 11 | PP | PSOE | 1,349 | 0.17 | |
| Santa Cruz de Tenerife | 7 | PSOE | IU/UP/Sumar | 1,174 | 0.24 | |
| Murcia | 10 | PSOE | PP | 2,767 | 0.37 | |
| Albacete | 4 | PSOE | VOX | 941 | 0.43 | |
| Gipuzkoa | 6 | PNV | IU/UP/Sumar | 1,622 | 0.43 | |
| Coruña (A) | 8 | BNG | PSOE | 3,016 | 0.45 | |
| Badajoz | 5 | VOX | PSOE | 1,751 | 0.45 | |
| Salamanca | 4 | PP | PSOE | 897 | 0.45 | |
| Granada | 7 | IU/UP/Sumar | PSOE | 2,460 | 0.49 | |
| Sevilla | 12 | IU/UP/Sumar | PP | 5,200 | 0.49 | |
| Palmas (Las) | 8 | PP | PSOE | 2,917 | 0.55 | |
| Navarra | 5 | PSOE | IU/UP/Sumar | 1,904 | 0.56 | |
| Asturias | 7 | PP | PSOE | 3,884 | 0.65 | |
| Guadalajara | 3 | VOX | PP | 1,019 | 0.72 | |
| Castellón/Castelló | 5 | VOX | IU/UP/Sumar | 2,364 | 0.77 | |
| Valencia/València | 16 | PP | PSOE | 11,059 | 0.77 | |
| Cádiz | 9 | PP | PSOE | 5,252 | 0.82 | |
| Córdoba | 6 | IU/UP/Sumar | PP | 3,702 | 0.83 | |
| Barcelona | 32 | PSOE | IU/UP/Sumar | 22,957 | 0.86 | |
| Pontevedra | 7 | PSOE | PP | 5,140 | 0.90 | |
| Valladolid | 5 | VOX | PP | 3,669 | 1.16 | |
| Cuenca | 3 | PP | PSOE | 1,364 | 1.20 | |
| Lleida | 4 | PSOE | PP | 2,339 | 1.27 | |
| Alicante/Alacant | 12 | PP | IU/UP/Sumar | 11,665 | 1.30 | |
| Bizkaia | 8 | Bildu | PNV | 9,845 | 1.62 | |
| Teruel | 3 | PP | Teruel Existe | 1,297 | 1.71 | |
| Jaén | 5 | VOX | PP | 6,396 | 1.74 | |
| Araba/Álava | 4 | PNV | PSOE | 3,125 | 1.85 | |
| Huelva | 5 | VOX | PP | 4,788 | 1.86 | |
| Lugo | 4 | PP | PSOE | 3,810 | 1.92 | |
| Ourense | 4 | PP | PSOE | 3,652 | 1.96 | |
| Balears (Illes) | 8 | PSOE | PP | 9,891 | 1.97 | |
| Ciudad Real | 5 | VOX | PP | 5,858 | 2.07 | |
| Huesca | 3 | PP | PSOE | 2,739 | 2.28 | |
| Ceuta | 1 | PP | PSOE | 794 | 2.38 | |
| Zaragoza | 7 | PP | PSOE | 13,460 | 2.60 | |
| León | 4 | PSOE | VOX | 7,226 | 2.63 | |
| Toledo | 6 | PP | PSOE | 10,231 | 2.64 | |
| Rioja (La) | 4 | PSOE | PP | 5,508 | 3.15 | |
| Cáceres | 4 | PP | VOX | 8,494 | 3.60 | |
| Almería | 6 | PP | VOX | 11,592 | 3.61 | |
| Palencia | 3 | PP | PSOE | 3,549 | 3.66 | |
| Ávila | 3 | PP | VOX | 4,078 | 4.16 | |
| Burgos | 4 | PSOE | PP | 8,934 | 4.41 | |
| Soria | 2 | PSOE | SY | 2,635 | 5.19 | |
| Zamora | 3 | PP | PSOE | 6,298 | 6.09 | |
| Segovia | 3 | PP | PSOE | 6,391 | 7.21 | |
| Melilla | 1 | PP | PSOE | 3,252 | 11.89 |
| Constituency | M | Last seat | Runner-up | Transfer | % valid | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bizkaia | 8 | PP | PNV | 101 | 0.02 | |
| Huelva | 5 | PSOE | IU/UP/Sumar | 123 | 0.05 | |
| Málaga | 11 | PP | VOX | 449 | 0.06 | |
| Balears (Illes) | 8 | VOX | PSOE | 286 | 0.06 | |
| Cuenca | 3 | PSOE | VOX | 152 | 0.14 | |
| Zamora | 3 | VOX | PP | 193 | 0.19 | |
| Alicante/Alacant | 12 | VOX | IU/UP/Sumar | 1,839 | 0.22 | |
| Valencia/València | 15 | PP | PSOE | 3,459 | 0.25 | |
| Madrid | 37 | PP | PSOE | 8,963 | 0.25 | |
| Girona | 6 | IU/UP/Sumar | CUP | 1,004 | 0.28 | |
| Córdoba | 6 | PP | PSOE | 1,295 | 0.29 | |
| Melilla | 1 | PP | CpM | 91 | 0.29 | |
| Barcelona | 32 | PSOE | ERC | 9,705 | 0.33 | |
| Burgos | 4 | PP | VOX | 691 | 0.35 | |
| Segovia | 3 | VOX | PP | 361 | 0.43 | |
| Granada | 7 | PP | VOX | 2,633 | 0.55 | |
| Araba/Álava | 4 | Bildu | PP | 974 | 0.57 | |
| Murcia | 10 | PSOE | Cs | 4,388 | 0.61 | |
| Coruña (A) | 8 | BNG | VOX | 3,905 | 0.64 | |
| Santa Cruz de Tenerife | 7 | PP | PSOE | 3,054 | 0.66 | |
| Ávila | 3 | VOX | PP | 700 | 0.75 | |
| Zaragoza | 7 | PSOE | Cs | 4,331 | 0.84 | |
| León | 4 | VOX | PP | 2,366 | 0.90 | |
| Castellón/Castelló | 5 | IU/UP/Sumar | PP | 2,776 | 0.94 | |
| Huesca | 3 | PSOE | VOX | 1,210 | 1.07 | |
| Cádiz | 9 | Cs | PSOE | 6,738 | 1.09 | |
| Tarragona | 6 | PSOE | ERC | 4,672 | 1.21 | |
| Palencia | 3 | PP | PSOE | 1,174 | 1.23 | |
| Cantabria | 5 | PP | PSOE | 4,278 | 1.31 | |
| Toledo | 6 | VOX | PSOE | 5,117 | 1.41 | |
| Cáceres | 4 | VOX | PP | 3,363 | 1.51 | |
| Ceuta | 1 | VOX | PSOE | 649 | 1.94 | |
| Jaén | 5 | PSOE | PP | 7,462 | 2.04 | |
| Lleida | 4 | PSOE | CiU/Junts | 4,398 | 2.12 | |
| Navarra | 5 | PP | PSOE | 7,672 | 2.29 | |
| Sevilla | 12 | PSOE | VOX | 24,637 | 2.34 | |
| Palmas (Las) | 8 | PSOE | IU/UP/Sumar | 11,643 | 2.41 | |
| Valladolid | 5 | PP | IU/UP/Sumar | 7,744 | 2.49 | |
| Albacete | 4 | PSOE | PP | 5,507 | 2.57 | |
| Salamanca | 4 | PP | PSOE | 5,117 | 2.62 | |
| Pontevedra | 7 | PP | PSOE | 15,531 | 2.97 | |
| Ciudad Real | 5 | PP | PSOE | 8,083 | 3.01 | |
| Gipuzkoa | 6 | Bildu | PNV | 12,667 | 3.31 | |
| Almería | 6 | PP | PSOE | 11,126 | 3.68 | |
| Asturias | 7 | PSOE | IU/UP/Sumar | 20,904 | 3.74 | |
| Badajoz | 6 | PP | PSOE | 14,391 | 3.89 | |
| Lugo | 4 | PSOE | PP | 7,111 | 3.95 | |
| Ourense | 4 | PSOE | PP | 7,129 | 4.16 | |
| Guadalajara | 3 | PP | PSOE | 6,573 | 4.97 | |
| Rioja (La) | 4 | PP | PSOE | 10,876 | 6.59 | |
| Teruel | 3 | PP | Teruel Existe | 5,093 | 6.87 | |
| Soria | 2 | PP | PSOE | 4,817 | 10.38 |
| Constituency | M | Last seat | Runner-up | Transfer | % valid | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zaragoza | 7 | PSOE | Cs | 33 | 0.01 | |
| Alicante/Alacant | 12 | PP | Cs | 683 | 0.07 | |
| Huelva | 5 | IU/UP/Sumar | VOX | 239 | 0.09 | |
| Balears (Illes) | 8 | PSOE | Cs | 476 | 0.09 | |
| Navarra | 5 | PSOE | Bildu | 341 | 0.09 | |
| Araba/Álava | 4 | Bildu | PP | 181 | 0.10 | |
| Palencia | 3 | Cs | PSOE | 159 | 0.15 | |
| Salamanca | 4 | PP | PSOE | 412 | 0.20 | |
| Girona | 6 | ERC | IU/UP/Sumar | 798 | 0.21 | |
| Málaga | 11 | IU/UP/Sumar | VOX | 2,170 | 0.27 | |
| Toledo | 6 | PP | IU/UP/Sumar | 1,089 | 0.27 | |
| Bizkaia | 8 | IU/UP/Sumar | PNV | 2,522 | 0.37 | |
| Palmas (Las) | 8 | PP | Cs | 2,150 | 0.39 | |
| Córdoba | 6 | VOX | PSOE | 1,940 | 0.41 | |
| Badajoz | 6 | VOX | PP | 2,168 | 0.53 | |
| Cádiz | 9 | IU/UP/Sumar | PSOE | 3,828 | 0.57 | |
| Barcelona | 32 | IU/UP/Sumar | ERC | 18,724 | 0.60 | |
| Murcia | 10 | PSOE | PP | 5,189 | 0.68 | |
| Madrid | 37 | PSOE | PP | 26,104 | 0.69 | |
| Valencia/València | 15 | Cs | PSOE | 10,962 | 0.75 | |
| Jaén | 5 | PSOE | VOX | 3,033 | 0.78 | |
| Zamora | 3 | Cs | PSOE | 944 | 0.85 | |
| Cantabria | 5 | PSOE | VOX | 3,419 | 0.95 | |
| Castellón/Castelló | 5 | IU/UP/Sumar | VOX | 3,053 | 0.97 | |
| Tarragona | 6 | IU/UP/Sumar | PSOE | 4,103 | 0.98 | |
| Valladolid | 5 | VOX | IU/UP/Sumar | 3,330 | 0.99 | |
| Albacete | 4 | PSOE | VOX | 2,370 | 1.01 | |
| Santa Cruz de Tenerife | 7 | CC | PSOE | 5,234 | 1.01 | |
| Coruña (A) | 8 | PP | PSOE | 7,601 | 1.12 | |
| Guadalajara | 3 | Cs | VOX | 1,659 | 1.16 | |
| Ciudad Real | 5 | VOX | PP | 3,689 | 1.26 | |
| Burgos | 4 | PSOE | IU/UP/Sumar | 3,139 | 1.43 | |
| Almería | 6 | PP | PSOE | 4,802 | 1.46 | |
| Sevilla | 12 | PP | PSOE | 18,033 | 1.61 | |
| Melilla | 1 | PP | PSOE | 549 | 1.63 | |
| Ávila | 3 | Cs | PP | 2,068 | 2.03 | |
| Huesca | 3 | Cs | PSOE | 2,594 | 2.07 | |
| Teruel | 3 | Cs | PSOE | 1,695 | 2.17 | |
| Gipuzkoa | 6 | Bildu | PNV | 9,952 | 2.42 | |
| Pontevedra | 7 | PSOE | IU/UP/Sumar | 13,986 | 2.43 | |
| Granada | 7 | PSOE | PP | 13,039 | 2.49 | |
| Asturias | 7 | PSOE | PP | 15,727 | 2.51 | |
| Cuenca | 3 | PSOE | VOX | 3,049 | 2.55 | |
| Rioja (La) | 4 | PSOE | PP | 4,681 | 2.59 | |
| León | 4 | PSOE | IU/UP/Sumar | 8,444 | 2.90 | |
| Cáceres | 4 | Cs | PSOE | 8,585 | 3.45 | |
| Segovia | 3 | Cs | PSOE | 3,611 | 3.90 | |
| Lleida | 4 | PSOE | ERC | 9,288 | 4.12 | |
| Soria | 2 | PP | Cs | 2,694 | 5.17 | |
| Ourense | 4 | PSOE | PP | 11,175 | 5.81 | |
| Ceuta | 1 | PSOE | VOX | 2,355 | 6.20 | |
| Lugo | 4 | PSOE | PP | 12,989 | 6.50 |
| Constituency | M | Last seat | Runner-up | Transfer | % valid | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Madrid | 36 | PP | Cs | 1,460 | 0.04 | |
| Murcia | 10 | Cs | PP | 694 | 0.10 | |
| Araba/Álava | 4 | PSOE | IU/UP/Sumar | 312 | 0.19 | |
| Barcelona | 31 | Cs | PSOE | 5,121 | 0.19 | |
| Toledo | 6 | PSOE | Cs | 775 | 0.21 | |
| Almería | 6 | Cs | IU/UP/Sumar | 660 | 0.22 | |
| Salamanca | 4 | PP | Cs | 510 | 0.25 | |
| Tarragona | 6 | Cs | IU/UP/Sumar | 946 | 0.28 | |
| Santa Cruz de Tenerife | 7 | Cs | PSOE | 1,344 | 0.28 | |
| Bizkaia | 8 | IU/UP/Sumar | PNV | 2,026 | 0.33 | |
| Alicante/Alacant | 12 | IU/UP/Sumar | PSOE | 2,890 | 0.33 | |
| Albacete | 4 | IU/UP/Sumar | Cs | 767 | 0.35 | |
| Sevilla | 12 | IU/UP/Sumar | PSOE | 3,864 | 0.37 | |
| Cantabria | 5 | Cs | PP | 1,407 | 0.42 | |
| Coruña (A) | 8 | PP | Cs | 3,294 | 0.51 | |
| Badajoz | 6 | IU/UP/Sumar | PSOE | 2,039 | 0.54 | |
| Lleida | 4 | PP | ERC | 1,161 | 0.64 | |
| Córdoba | 6 | Cs | PP | 2,999 | 0.67 | |
| Ourense | 4 | PP | IU/UP/Sumar | 1,283 | 0.69 | |
| Huesca | 3 | IU/UP/Sumar | PP | 843 | 0.72 | |
| Ciudad Real | 5 | PP | IU/UP/Sumar | 2,274 | 0.81 | |
| Lugo | 4 | IU/UP/Sumar | PP | 1,685 | 0.87 | |
| Girona | 6 | CiU/Junts | PP | 3,128 | 1.02 | |
| Guadalajara | 3 | PP | IU/UP/Sumar | 1,427 | 1.09 | |
| Valencia/València | 16 | IU/UP/Sumar | PSOE | 16,473 | 1.16 | |
| Valladolid | 5 | Cs | PP | 3,956 | 1.25 | |
| Burgos | 4 | IU/UP/Sumar | Cs | 2,673 | 1.29 | |
| Gipuzkoa | 6 | PNV | PP | 4,798 | 1.31 | |
| Jaén | 5 | IU/UP/Sumar | PSOE | 5,277 | 1.42 | |
| Balears (Illes) | 8 | PSOE | PP | 7,894 | 1.70 | |
| Ávila | 3 | PSOE | PP | 1,725 | 1.74 | |
| Cáceres | 4 | PSOE | IU/UP/Sumar | 4,147 | 1.76 | |
| Pontevedra | 7 | PSOE | PP | 9,571 | 1.76 | |
| Castellón/Castelló | 5 | Cs | IU/UP/Sumar | 5,321 | 1.78 | |
| Zaragoza | 7 | PP | IU/UP/Sumar | 9,166 | 1.79 | |
| Málaga | 11 | Cs | PP | 13,487 | 1.81 | |
| Rioja (La) | 4 | IU/UP/Sumar | PP | 3,152 | 1.82 | |
| Granada | 7 | PP | PSOE | 10,639 | 2.17 | |
| Soria | 2 | PSOE | PP | 1,087 | 2.19 | |
| Cádiz | 9 | PSOE | PP | 15,052 | 2.44 | |
| Teruel | 3 | PP | IU/UP/Sumar | 1,933 | 2.58 | |
| Segovia | 3 | PSOE | Cs | 2,710 | 3.06 | |
| León | 4 | IU/UP/Sumar | PP | 8,933 | 3.18 | |
| Huelva | 5 | IU/UP/Sumar | PSOE | 7,993 | 3.25 | |
| Palmas (Las) | 8 | IU/UP/Sumar | PP | 18,732 | 3.73 | |
| Navarra | 5 | IU/UP/Sumar | PP | 14,193 | 4.23 | |
| Asturias | 8 | PP | PSOE | 30,856 | 5.19 | |
| Palencia | 3 | PP | IU/UP/Sumar | 5,271 | 5.24 | |
| Zamora | 3 | PSOE | PP | 6,395 | 5.87 | |
| Cuenca | 3 | PP | PSOE | 9,290 | 8.02 | |
| Melilla | 1 | PP | PSOE | 3,359 | 12.39 | |
| Ceuta | 1 | PP | PSOE | 4,509 | 14.62 |
| Constituency | M | Last seat | Runner-up | Transfer | % valid | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Granada | 7 | PP | PSOE | 334 | 0.07 | |
| Madrid | 36 | PP | PSOE | 3,908 | 0.11 | |
| Almería | 6 | IU/UP/Sumar | PP | 427 | 0.14 | |
| Jaén | 5 | PSOE | IU/UP/Sumar | 648 | 0.17 | |
| Lleida | 4 | PSOE | CiU/Junts | 349 | 0.18 | |
| León | 5 | Cs | PSOE | 559 | 0.19 | |
| Sevilla | 12 | Cs | IU/UP/Sumar | 2,182 | 0.20 | |
| Ciudad Real | 5 | PP | IU/UP/Sumar | 704 | 0.24 | |
| Barcelona | 31 | PP | PSOE | 7,353 | 0.26 | |
| Badajoz | 6 | IU/UP/Sumar | PP | 1,116 | 0.28 | |
| Guadalajara | 3 | Cs | IU/UP/Sumar | 389 | 0.29 | |
| Albacete | 4 | Cs | PSOE | 769 | 0.33 | |
| Málaga | 11 | PP | IU/UP/Sumar | 2,732 | 0.35 | |
| Rioja (La) | 4 | IU/UP/Sumar | Cs | 631 | 0.36 | |
| Santa Cruz de Tenerife | 7 | Cs | IU/UP/Sumar | 1,860 | 0.39 | |
| Araba/Álava | 4 | PSOE | IU/UP/Sumar | 750 | 0.42 | |
| Toledo | 6 | IU/UP/Sumar | PP | 2,080 | 0.54 | |
| Zaragoza | 7 | PP | IU/UP/Sumar | 3,108 | 0.58 | |
| Murcia | 10 | PP | IU/UP/Sumar | 4,984 | 0.69 | |
| Valencia/València | 15 | IU/UP/Sumar | Cs | 10,268 | 0.70 | |
| Alicante/Alacant | 12 | PSOE | PP | 6,539 | 0.72 | |
| Burgos | 4 | IU/UP/Sumar | Cs | 1,630 | 0.76 | |
| Coruña (A) | 8 | Cs | PP | 5,567 | 0.83 | |
| Palmas (Las) | 8 | PP | IU/UP/Sumar | 4,395 | 0.85 | |
| Bizkaia | 8 | PNV | IU/UP/Sumar | 5,938 | 0.91 | |
| Córdoba | 6 | Cs | PSOE | 4,397 | 0.94 | |
| Navarra | 5 | IU/UP/Sumar | Bildu | 3,780 | 1.07 | |
| Huesca | 3 | IU/UP/Sumar | PP | 1,380 | 1.13 | |
| Asturias | 8 | PP | IU/UP/Sumar | 7,455 | 1.20 | |
| Girona | 6 | ERC | Cs | 4,169 | 1.25 | |
| Tarragona | 6 | PP | IU/UP/Sumar | 4,734 | 1.27 | |
| Gipuzkoa | 6 | PNV | Bildu | 5,052 | 1.30 | |
| Pontevedra | 7 | PSOE | IU/UP/Sumar | 7,538 | 1.32 | |
| Segovia | 3 | PP | Cs | 1,618 | 1.76 | |
| Balears (Illes) | 8 | PSOE | IU/UP/Sumar | 8,530 | 1.76 | |
| Teruel | 3 | PP | IU/UP/Sumar | 1,498 | 1.93 | |
| Salamanca | 4 | Cs | PP | 4,088 | 1.95 | |
| Cáceres | 4 | PSOE | IU/UP/Sumar | 5,100 | 2.05 | |
| Ávila | 3 | PSOE | Cs | 2,142 | 2.10 | |
| Ourense | 4 | IU/UP/Sumar | PP | 4,100 | 2.13 | |
| Cantabria | 5 | Cs | PP | 7,725 | 2.21 | |
| Valladolid | 5 | IU/UP/Sumar | PP | 7,323 | 2.23 | |
| Cádiz | 9 | PP | Cs | 14,751 | 2.28 | |
| Castellón/Castelló | 5 | Cs | IU/UP/Sumar | 7,308 | 2.36 | |
| Huelva | 5 | PP | PSOE | 6,357 | 2.45 | |
| Soria | 2 | PSOE | PP | 1,544 | 2.98 | |
| Lugo | 4 | IU/UP/Sumar | PP | 7,730 | 3.80 | |
| Palencia | 3 | PP | Cs | 4,185 | 4.00 | |
| Zamora | 3 | PP | IU/UP/Sumar | 5,477 | 4.84 | |
| Cuenca | 3 | PP | PSOE | 6,859 | 5.66 | |
| Melilla | 1 | PP | PSOE | 2,714 | 9.67 | |
| Ceuta | 1 | PP | PSOE | 3,594 | 10.88 |
| Constituency | M | Last seat | Runner-up | Transfer | % valid | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Girona | 6 | ERC | PSOE | 109 | 0.04 | |
| Navarra | 5 | Geroa Bai | PP | 183 | 0.06 | |
| Madrid | 36 | UPyD | PP | 2,844 | 0.08 | |
| Alicante/Alacant | 12 | PSOE | IU/UP/Sumar | 1,723 | 0.19 | |
| Badajoz | 6 | PP | PSOE | 920 | 0.23 | |
| Barcelona | 31 | PSOE | CiU/Junts | 8,521 | 0.33 | |
| Gipuzkoa | 6 | Bildu | PNV | 1,801 | 0.48 | |
| Cádiz | 8 | PP | IU/UP/Sumar | 3,432 | 0.55 | |
| Cantabria | 5 | PP | PSOE | 1,999 | 0.57 | |
| Bizkaia | 8 | Bildu | PP | 4,698 | 0.73 | |
| Zaragoza | 7 | IU/UP/Sumar | PSOE | 4,637 | 0.90 | |
| Málaga | 10 | PP | PSOE | 6,554 | 0.91 | |
| Cáceres | 4 | PSOE | PP | 2,826 | 1.11 | |
| Sevilla | 12 | PSOE | PP | 16,111 | 1.52 | |
| Pontevedra | 7 | BNG | PP | 8,676 | 1.55 | |
| Asturias | 8 | PSOE | PP | 10,056 | 1.59 | |
| Córdoba | 6 | PSOE | PP | 7,753 | 1.65 | |
| Valladolid | 5 | PSOE | PP | 5,457 | 1.67 | |
| Huelva | 5 | PP | PSOE | 4,409 | 1.67 | |
| Ávila | 3 | PSOE | PP | 1,809 | 1.71 | |
| Santa Cruz de Tenerife | 7 | PP | CC | 8,040 | 1.76 | |
| Valencia/València | 16 | PP | PSOE | 27,395 | 1.93 | |
| Tarragona | 6 | PP | CiU/Junts | 6,848 | 1.98 | |
| Castellón/Castelló | 5 | PSOE | PP | 6,211 | 2.10 | |
| Coruña (A) | 8 | PP | PSOE | 14,942 | 2.24 | |
| Murcia | 10 | PP | PSOE | 16,524 | 2.25 | |
| Soria | 2 | PSOE | PP | 1,357 | 2.66 | |
| Balears (Illes) | 8 | PSOE | PP | 11,899 | 2.72 | |
| Palmas (Las) | 8 | PP | PSOE | 13,158 | 2.79 | |
| Ciudad Real | 5 | PSOE | PP | 8,658 | 2.90 | |
| Rioja (La) | 4 | PP | PSOE | 5,611 | 3.23 | |
| Araba/Álava | 4 | PNV | PP | 5,943 | 3.51 | |
| Jaén | 6 | PSOE | PP | 15,911 | 3.94 | |
| Albacete | 4 | PP | PSOE | 9,210 | 3.96 | |
| Lleida | 4 | PP | CiU/Junts | 8,173 | 4.25 | |
| Burgos | 4 | PP | PSOE | 10,497 | 4.90 | |
| Granada | 7 | PP | PSOE | 25,960 | 5.10 | |
| León | 5 | PSOE | PP | 15,916 | 5.43 | |
| Lugo | 4 | PP | PSOE | 11,755 | 5.43 | |
| Ourense | 4 | PP | PSOE | 11,915 | 5.83 | |
| Segovia | 3 | PSOE | PP | 5,542 | 5.99 | |
| Huesca | 3 | PP | PSOE | 8,857 | 7.35 | |
| Almería | 6 | PP | PSOE | 23,824 | 7.61 | |
| Toledo | 6 | PP | PSOE | 30,165 | 7.84 | |
| Salamanca | 4 | PP | PSOE | 17,757 | 8.27 | |
| Teruel | 3 | PP | PSOE | 7,284 | 9.43 | |
| Cuenca | 3 | PP | PSOE | 14,324 | 11.45 | |
| Palencia | 3 | PP | PSOE | 12,716 | 11.94 | |
| Guadalajara | 3 | PP | PSOE | 17,387 | 13.16 | |
| Zamora | 3 | PP | PSOE | 16,585 | 14.04 | |
| Melilla | 1 | PP | PSOE | 5,532 | 20.70 | |
| Ceuta | 1 | PP | PSOE | 7,262 | 22.83 |
| Constituency | M | Last seat | Runner-up | Transfer | % valid | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Barcelona | 31 | PP | CiU/Junts | 522 | 0.02 | |
| Bizkaia | 8 | PSOE | PP | 384 | 0.06 | |
| Córdoba | 6 | PSOE | PP | 1,455 | 0.30 | |
| Melilla | 1 | PP | PSOE | 149 | 0.47 | |
| Pontevedra | 7 | BNG | PP | 2,899 | 0.47 | |
| Madrid | 35 | PSOE | PP | 16,724 | 0.47 | |
| Ciudad Real | 5 | PP | PSOE | 1,570 | 0.51 | |
| Lleida | 4 | PP | CiU/Junts | 1,088 | 0.51 | |
| Girona | 6 | PSOE | PP | 2,458 | 0.74 | |
| Coruña (A) | 8 | PP | PSOE | 6,146 | 0.83 | |
| Tarragona | 6 | PSOE | CiU/Junts | 3,349 | 0.89 | |
| Murcia | 10 | PP | PSOE | 10,434 | 1.36 | |
| Badajoz | 6 | PP | PSOE | 6,185 | 1.45 | |
| Alicante/Alacant | 12 | PP | PSOE | 19,223 | 2.06 | |
| Málaga | 10 | PP | PSOE | 15,878 | 2.08 | |
| Asturias | 8 | PP | PSOE | 15,625 | 2.25 | |
| Cuenca | 3 | PP | PSOE | 3,088 | 2.32 | |
| Castellón/Castelló | 5 | PP | PSOE | 7,623 | 2.40 | |
| Teruel | 3 | PSOE | PP | 2,116 | 2.44 | |
| Salamanca | 4 | PSOE | PP | 5,833 | 2.47 | |
| Cádiz | 9 | PP | PSOE | 15,970 | 2.48 | |
| Toledo | 6 | PSOE | PP | 10,157 | 2.59 | |
| Almería | 6 | PSOE | PP | 8,565 | 2.63 | |
| Gipuzkoa | 6 | PNV | PSOE | 9,322 | 2.84 | |
| Jaén | 6 | PSOE | PP | 12,103 | 2.92 | |
| Sevilla | 12 | PSOE | PP | 31,973 | 2.96 | |
| Valencia/València | 16 | PP | PSOE | 44,925 | 3.01 | |
| Palencia | 3 | PP | PSOE | 3,612 | 3.06 | |
| Palmas (Las) | 8 | PP | PSOE | 15,900 | 3.14 | |
| Santa Cruz de Tenerife | 7 | PSOE | PP | 15,561 | 3.16 | |
| Cantabria | 5 | PP | PSOE | 11,788 | 3.19 | |
| Valladolid | 5 | PP | PSOE | 11,604 | 3.32 | |
| León | 5 | PSOE | PP | 11,227 | 3.38 | |
| Araba/Álava | 4 | PNV | PSOE | 6,618 | 3.88 | |
| Burgos | 4 | PSOE | PP | 9,476 | 4.07 | |
| Cáceres | 4 | PP | PSOE | 11,491 | 4.23 | |
| Zamora | 3 | PP | PSOE | 5,742 | 4.33 | |
| Granada | 7 | PSOE | PP | 23,551 | 4.44 | |
| Ourense | 4 | PSOE | PP | 10,816 | 4.47 | |
| Balears (Illes) | 8 | PP | PSOE | 22,603 | 4.77 | |
| Huelva | 5 | PP | PSOE | 12,825 | 4.78 | |
| Guadalajara | 3 | PP | PSOE | 6,466 | 4.84 | |
| Zaragoza | 7 | PSOE | PP | 27,273 | 4.97 | |
| Huesca | 3 | PSOE | PP | 6,604 | 4.99 | |
| Navarra | 5 | PSOE | PP | 17,529 | 5.17 | |
| Rioja (La) | 4 | PSOE | PP | 11,978 | 6.37 | |
| Lugo | 4 | PSOE | PP | 17,491 | 7.06 | |
| Segovia | 3 | PP | PSOE | 7,189 | 7.19 | |
| Ceuta | 1 | PP | PSOE | 2,663 | 7.32 | |
| Albacete | 4 | PSOE | PP | 20,366 | 8.49 | |
| Ávila | 3 | PP | PSOE | 13,513 | 11.77 | |
| Soria | 2 | PSOE | PP | 6,611 | 11.80 |
Cálculo propio sobre los resultados del BOE 2008–2023.