altnalysis

An independent election model for 29 November

altnalysis is an independent, open election model. Its aim is to state honestly what may happen on 29 November, and with how much uncertainty.

Today's headlines

Updated 20 October 2026

95%Probability that PP wins the most votes

136PP seats: median, with a 95% interval from 115 to 158

—days to election day

See the headlines →

HeadlinesThe day's forecast: seats, map, polls and scenarios.SimulatorChange the votes and see how the seats change.Results by constituencyResults and forecast for each of the 52 constituencies.AnalysisAnalysis explaining the data and its limits.PollsPublished polls and how they evolve.MethodologyHow the model works, step by step.DataDownload the tables and model outputs.

Independence

It has no ties to, and receives no funding from, any political party, media outlet or polling firm. It does not commission polls: it works with public data and its own model and data.

Principles

Probabilities, not prophecies. Always with intervals and scenarios.
Neutrality. Results are described; parties are not judged.
Transparency. Explained methodology, cited sources and downloadable outputs.
Legality. No new estimates during the 24–28 November blackout.

Corrections

If you find an error, write to us. Corrections are noted with their date on the affected page.

Contact

[email protected]

Methodology →