Polling stations

Pick a province and a municipality: you will see each station's 2023 result, the 2026 estimate and turnout. Move the turnout sliders and the province recomputes its votes and seats.

• This is a scenario tool, not a per-station prediction.
• Within a section, stations split voters alphabetically by surname, not by street: differences between stations of the same section are largely chance.
• Each station's 2026 estimate is a uniform swing within the province (the same log-odds change in every station) until the section-level model is ready.
• More or less turnout also changes who votes: the voters added with higher turnout have the composition of the province's marginal voter according to the CIS (PP and Vox voters are already highly mobilised, so the extra votes come mostly from less mobilised electorates and 2023 abstainers). The station is treated as if its electorate behaved like the province's at that turnout level.
• The top controls push down (national and province turnout, to every station); municipality, section and station sliders are additional offsets and propagate up to the province and the national total. Loaded province: computed station by station; rest: provincial model.