Segovia: the third seat is a coin toss between the PP and Vox

Segovia elects three members of Congress and has almost always split them the same way: two for the conservative People's Party (PP) and one for the Socialists (PSOE). For November 29, the model keeps the PSOE's seat (93%) and leaves the third one up in the air: half of the PP's vote and the hard-right Vox's vote are tied at around 20%. Town by town, the PP starts as the favorite in 200 of 209 municipalities.

21 October 2026 · Miguel · Leer en español

Segovia, in Castile and León just north of Madrid, is one of the smallest districts in Spain’s Congress: three seats, 209 municipalities and about 116,000 voters, half of them in towns of fewer than 5,000 people. It is also one of the most stable: in five of the seven general elections since 2008 the split was the same, two seats for the PP and one for the PSOE. The exceptions were the two elections of 2019, which is why the question on November 29 is the same as then: who gets the third seat.

Seven elections: the PP, the PSOE and a third seat on the move

The PP has been the most-voted party in Segovia in six of the seven elections, by a wide margin in the early ones: 53% in 2008 and 56% in 2011. The only time the PSOE won was in April 2019 (28.2% to 26.9%), when the PP collapsed and the centrist Ciudadanos reached 20%: that third seat went to Ciudadanos. In November 2019, with Vox at 17%, it went to Vox. In 2023 the PP climbed to 45% and won back its second seat.

With three seats, the rule is simple: the first party takes one seat and the second another; the third goes to the first party if half of its vote is larger than the third party’s, and to that third party if not. In 2023, half of the PP’s vote (22.5%) comfortably beat Vox (14.1%).

The forecast: a tie at around 20%

The model gives the PP 41% of the vote in Segovia (between 32% and 50% with 95% probability), the PSOE 25% (19–33%) and Vox 20% (14–27%). Compared with 2023, the PP falls four points, the PSOE five and Vox rises six. Expected turnout is 79% (74–84%), four points higher than in 2023.

On those figures, half of the PP’s vote (20.7%) and Vox’s vote (20.3%) are practically tied. The PP wins its second seat in 58% of simulations and Vox gets in in 49%; the PSOE keeps its seat in 93%. The first two figures add up to more than 100 because in some simulations the PSOE loses its seat and both the PP’s second and Vox’s get in. In half of the simulations, the last seat is decided by fewer than 3,100 votes. In the site’s central scenario the split remains PP 2, PSOE 1.

Town by town

Segovia’s map is almost a single color. The PP won 197 of the 209 municipalities in 2008 and 207 in 2011; even in April 2019, its worst election, it won 147. In 2023 it won 187, the PSOE 20 and Vox 2. Between November 2019 and 2023, one municipality in five changed hands (38), and since 2008, 75 have done so at least once.

For 2026, the municipal estimate makes the PP the favorite in 200 municipalities (45 safe, 130 leaning and 25 toss-ups), the PSOE in 5 (2 leaning and 3 toss-ups) and Vox in 4 (1 leaning and 3 toss-ups). Compared with 2023, 16 would change hands, almost all from the PSOE to the PP (14).

Among the ten municipalities with the most voters, the PP is the favorite in all of them. It is so with more than 95% probability in the city of Segovia, La Lastrilla, Cantalejo and Carbonero el Mayor; leaning in El Espinar, Cuéllar, Palazuelos de Eresma, San Cristóbal de Segovia and Nava de la Asunción; and in Real Sitio de San Ildefonso (La Granja), the only one of the ten the PSOE won in 2023, by 0.9 points, the PP starts at 64%.

Lead: points over the runner-up in 2023. "First in": share of 4,000 simulations in which the favorite finishes first in the municipality.

These maps should be read as an estimate. It takes each municipality’s 2023 vote, shifts it as much as needed for the province as a whole to match the forecast, and adds its own error, larger the smaller the municipality. It knows nothing about local candidates, and in a town of a hundred voters a handful of votes changes the winner.

Who votes in Segovia

Segovia has 161,261 inhabitants spread over 6,791 km²: 24 per square kilometer, against 99 for Spain as a whole. One in four Segovians (24%) lives in a municipality of fewer than 1,000 inhabitants and almost half (47%) in one of fewer than 5,000; in Spain, 3% and 12%. There are 208 people aged 65 or over for every 100 under 15, against 171 in Spain, and 24% of the population is 65 or older (21% in Spain).

Three features help explain how it votes:

• More industry and farming than average. 18% of workers are in industry (14% in Spain) and 8% in agriculture (3.5%); services weigh less (67% against 76%).
• High employment, low unemployment. Census unemployment is 12%, against 17% in Spain, and the employment rate is 50% (47%). Income per person (€15,841) and the share of university graduates (32%) are at the Spanish average.
• A province of villages, with a capital that matters. The city of Segovia holds almost a third of the electorate (38,000 of about 116,000 voters); the rest is a province of small, ageing municipalities where the PP almost always wins.

How we calculated it

• History. Official Congress results (BOE) from 2008 to 2023, by party family. Municipal results come from the Interior Ministry’s polling-station data and, adding the overseas vote, exactly reproduce the BOE totals in all seven elections.
• Provincial forecast. The altnalysis forecast of October 21: 4,000 of its 50,000 simulations for Segovia.
• Municipal estimate. In each simulation, each municipality’s 2023 vote is shifted party by party on a logistic scale until the provincial total (excluding the overseas vote, kept as in 2023) matches the simulation; then a municipal error with variance a + b / voters is added, fitted on the changes between the 2015 and 2023 general elections. Safe: the favorite comes first in 95% of simulations or more; leaning, between 60% and 95%; toss-up, below 60%.
• Sociology. INE: Continuous Population Statistics (July 1, 2026, provisional), Household Income Distribution Atlas (2024), 2021 Census and Labour Force Survey (second quarter of 2026). Municipal boundaries: es-atlas (IGN).
• Code. articulo_circ.py 40, in the altnalysis repository.