Where the People's Party's seats will be decided on November 29

Lugo, Ávila and Madrid are the provinces where the conservative People's Party (PP) has the best chance of adding a seat above its central scenario; Pontevedra, Murcia, Málaga, Barcelona and Madrid, where it is most at risk of losing one, mostly to the hard-right Vox. Province by province and section by section, where its result will be decided, using the same method we applied to the Socialists (PSOE).

21 October 2026 · Miguel · Leer en español

The PP’s result on November 29 will not be decided the same way everywhere. In most provinces its seat count is fairly clear; in a few, a seat changes hands with small shifts in the vote. This analysis describes where those seats are, who the party is competing with, and in which municipalities and census sections the vote is most evenly split. We ran exactly the same exercise for the PSOE in “Where the Socialists’ seats will be decided on November 29”.

The provinces where a seat is in play

Where the vote is most contested

In those eight provinces, 1,794,146 voters live in census sections that are contested for the PP: sections where no party comes first in 60% of simulations and the PP does so in at least 20%. In 2023, 532,115 of them abstained. These are the municipalities with the most voters in such sections:

How to read it

• One more / one fewer is the probability, across the forecast’s simulations, that the PP wins one seat more or one fewer than in the central scenario, the allocation shown across the site. Above 50%, that seat is effectively a toss-up.
• At the expense of / in favor of is the party that, on average, gives up or gains the most seats in those simulations.
• Contested sections are census sections where no party comes first in 60% of simulations and the PP does so in at least 20%. Within a province every vote weighs the same for the seat allocation; sections show where the most evenly split electorate lives, not how seats are counted. Where the PP is competing with Vox, as in Pontevedra or Murcia, the PP usually comes first comfortably in individual sections, so that contest shows up better in the province table than in the municipality table.

What this analysis does not say

• It is not campaign advice. It describes the forecast; it does not say what any party should do.
• It knows nothing about candidates, campaigns or population changes since 2023, and the section-level picture starts from the 2023 vote.
• It carries the forecast’s uncertainty. The probabilities will move with the polls in the coming weeks.

How we calculated it

The altnalysis forecast of October 21 (50,000 simulations) and its central scenario by constituency; 2023 census sections with each one’s favorite in the simulations and its history of flips since 2008; 2023 abstention from Interior Ministry polling-station data. Code: articulo_donde_se_juega.py, the same for every party.

Correction (October 21, 2026): figures that depend on section history since 2008 were recomputed after fixing how party acronyms were assigned in the 2008 polling-station data. The swing-section voters column of the municipalities table changes; the rest of the article does not.