Forecast Update: the Socialists Rise to 108 Seats and the PP Falls to 134
Today's version of the forecast differs from the one published this morning: the Socialists (PSOE) gain three seats in the central scenario (from 105 to 108), and the conservative People's Party (PP) (from 135 to 134), Vox (from 66 to 65) and Frente Amplio (from 12 to 11) lose one each. The probability that the PP and Vox together reach an absolute majority falls from 99.0% to 98.5%.
22 October 2026 · Miguel · Leer en español
The forecast for Spain’s November 29 general election was updated today. These are the changes in the central scenario, the 350-seat split that summarizes the 50,000 simulations:
| Party | This morning | Now | 95% range |
|---|---|---|---|
| PP | 135 | 134 | 113–155 |
| PSOE | 105 | 108 | 88–128 |
| Vox | 66 | 65 | 47–84 |
| Frente Amplio (Broad Front) | 12 | 11 | 5–21 |
| ERC | 9 | 9 | 4–15 |
| EH Bildu | 7 | 7 | 2–12 |
| PNV | 5 | 5 | 2–9 |
| Junts | 4 | 4 | 1–9 |
| BNG | 3 | 3 | 0–7 |
| Adelante Andalucía | 2 | 2 | 0–6 |
| Podemos | 1 | 1 | 0–4 |
| Coalición Canaria | 1 | 1 | 0–3 |
In vote share, the PSOE moves from 26.3% to 26.9% and the PP from 31.6% to 31.5%; the rest barely move.
The majority picture does not change in substance: the PP and Vox together win 176 seats or more in 98.5% of simulations (99.0% this morning), with a median of 199 seats. The PSOE, Frente Amplio and Podemos reach a majority in practically none of them, with a median of 120.
The update includes no new polls. It reflects adjustments to the model, explained in the methodology. The full forecast, with every province, is on the home page.