4 seats · estimated turnout 76.7 % (2023: 72.7 %)
Albacete
Preliminary forecast updated 20 October 2026, from 50,000 simulations.
Estimated vote
PP37.5 %29.0–46.3
PSOE27.1 %20.0–35.0
Vox23.3 %16.7–30.9
Frente Amplio4.5 %1.9–8.8
Podemos2.7 %0.9–6.2
Se Acabó La Fiesta2.2 %0.8–4.9
Dot: mean; bar: 95% of simulations. Share of valid votes.
Seats
| Party | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 95 % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PP | 8 | 91 | 2 (1–2) | |||
| PSOE | 93 | 7 | 1 (1–2) | |||
| Vox | 1 | 97 | 2 | 1 (1–1) |
Probability (%) of each seat count. 95%: median and 95% range of simulations.
The closest seat
2.º seat for PP: 92 %; challenger PSOE (7 %).
Senate
The Senate in Albacete
29N forecast
4 senators · joint PSOE + Frente Amplio list
| List | % vote | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | Mean (95%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PP | 38.0 29.5–46.8 | 1 | 13 | 15 | 71 | 2.6 (1–3) | |
| PSOE + Frente Amplio | 30.7 23.4–38.9 | 11 | 64 | 13 | 12 | 1.3 (0–3) | |
| Vox | 23.6 17.0–31.2 | 86 | 12 | 2 | 0.2 (0–1) | ||
| Podemos | 2.8 0.9–6.2 | >99 | 0.0 (0–0) | ||||
| Otros | 2.7 0.7–6.1 | >99 | 0.0 (0–0) | ||||
| Se Acabó La Fiesta | 2.2 0.8–4.9 | >99 | 0.0 (0–0) |
Most likely splits
- PP 3 · PSOE + Frente Amplio 162 %
- PP 2 · PSOE + Frente Amplio 213 %
- PSOE + Frente Amplio 3 · PP 111 %
- PP 3 · Vox 19 %
% vote: list estimate (mean and 95% interval), share of votes for lists. Columns 0, 1, 2…: probability (%) of each number of senators; Mean (95%): expected senators and 95% range.
Senators elected in 2023
| Senator | Party | Votes |
|---|---|---|
| Simón Valentín Bueno Vargas | PP | 91,216 |
| Miriam García Navarro | PP | 89,492 |
| Pilar Milagros Rojo Noguera | PP | 87,462 |
| Amparo Torres Valencoso | PSOE | 77,585 |
2023 result
| Party | % | 2023 seats | With 2026 seats |
|---|---|---|---|
| PP | 39.9 | 2 | 2 |
| PSOE | 34.5 | 2 | 2 |
| Vox | 16.6 | – | – |
| Frente Amplio | 7.2 | – | – |
The last seat, 2026 forecast
| Holds it | Just short | |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | PP · 74 % | PSOE · 58 % |
| 2 | Vox · 16 % | Vox · 22 % |
| 3 | PSOE · 10 % | PP · 19 % |
| 4 | Frente Amplio · <1 % | Frente Amplio · <1 % |
Votes the challenger would need: median 20,126 (interquartile range 11,098–29,339), 8.84 % of valid votes. Across the 50,000 forecast simulations.
The last seat, 2008–2023
| Election | Won by | Runner-up | Transfer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2008 | PSOE | PP | 20,366 |
| 2011 | PP | PSOE | 9,210 |
| 2015 | Cs | PSOE | 769 |
| 2016 | IU/UP/Sumar | Cs | 767 |
| 2019A | PSOE | VOX | 2,370 |
| 2019N | PSOE | PP | 5,507 |
| 2023 | PSOE | VOX | 941 |
Votes the runner-up would need to take from the winner to flip the seat.