12 seats · estimated turnout 74.3 % (2023: 69.6 %)
Alicante/Alacant
Preliminary forecast updated 20 October 2026, from 50,000 simulations.
Estimated vote
PP35.8 %27.6–44.3
PSOE26.4 %19.5–34.0
Vox23.7 %17.1–31.1
Compromís-Front Valencià8.9 %4.1–16.1
Se Acabó La Fiesta2.0 %0.7–4.4
Dot: mean; bar: 95% of simulations. Share of valid votes.
Seats
| Party | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 95 % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PP | 2 | 31 | 55 | 11 | 5 (4–6) | |||||||||
| PSOE | 4 | 56 | 37 | 3 | 3 (2–5) | |||||||||
| Vox | 16 | 68 | 15 | 3 (2–4) | ||||||||||
| Compromís-Front Valencià | 24 | 69 | 6 | 1 (0–2) |
Probability (%) of each seat count. 95%: median and 95% range of simulations.
The closest seat
5.º seat for PP: 67 %; challenger PSOE (40 %).
Senate
The Senate in Alicante/Alacant
29N forecast
4 senators · joint PSOE + Frente Amplio list
| List | % vote | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | Mean (95%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PP | 36.2 28.0–44.7 | 2 | 30 | 21 | 47 | 2.1 (1–3) | |
| PSOE + Frente Amplio | 34.3 26.6–42.9 | 4 | 46 | 20 | 30 | 1.8 (0–3) | |
| Vox | 24.0 17.4–31.3 | 91 | 7 | 1 | 0.1 (0–1) | ||
| Otros | 3.5 1.0–8.3 | >99 | 0.0 (0–0) | ||||
| Se Acabó La Fiesta | 2.0 0.7–4.5 | >99 | 0.0 (0–0) |
Most likely splits
- PP 3 · PSOE + Frente Amplio 144 %
- PSOE + Frente Amplio 3 · PP 128 %
- PP 2 · PSOE + Frente Amplio 219 %
- PP 3 · Vox 13 %
% vote: list estimate (mean and 95% interval), share of votes for lists. Columns 0, 1, 2…: probability (%) of each number of senators; Mean (95%): expected senators and 95% range.
Senators elected in 2023
| Senator | Party | Votes |
|---|---|---|
| Eva Ortiz Vilella | PP | 338,386 |
| Agustín Almodóbar Barceló | PP | 326,809 |
| María Dolores Esteve Juan | PP | 322,094 |
| Ana Martínez Zaragoza | PSOE | 300,586 |
2023 result
| Party | % | 2023 seats | With 2026 seats |
|---|---|---|---|
| PP | 36.7 | 5 | 5 |
| PSOE | 32.0 | 4 | 4 |
| Vox | 16.3 | 2 | 2 |
| Compromís-Front Valencià | 12.9 | 1 | 1 |
The last seat, 2026 forecast
| Holds it | Just short | |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | PP · 38 % | PP · 35 % |
| 2 | PSOE · 27 % | PSOE · 30 % |
| 3 | Vox · 25 % | Vox · 25 % |
| 4 | Compromís-Front Valencià · 10 % | Compromís-Front Valencià · 10 % |
Votes the challenger would need: median 15,865 (interquartile range 6,263–30,814), 1.64 % of valid votes. Across the 50,000 forecast simulations.
The last seat, 2008–2023
| Election | Won by | Runner-up | Transfer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2008 | PP | PSOE | 19,223 |
| 2011 | PSOE | IU/UP/Sumar | 1,723 |
| 2015 | PSOE | PP | 6,539 |
| 2016 | IU/UP/Sumar | PSOE | 2,890 |
| 2019A | PP | Cs | 683 |
| 2019N | VOX | IU/UP/Sumar | 1,839 |
| 2023 | PP | IU/UP/Sumar | 11,665 |
Votes the runner-up would need to take from the winner to flip the seat.