6 seats · estimated turnout 71.1 % (2023: 62.9 %)
Almería
Preliminary forecast updated 20 October 2026, from 50,000 simulations.
Estimated vote
PP36.8 %29.2–44.9
Vox27.9 %20.9–35.5
PSOE22.2 %16.6–28.6
Por Andalucía3.6 %1.5–7.0
Se Acabó La Fiesta2.5 %0.9–5.4
Adelante Andalucía2.3 %1.0–4.5
Podemos1.8 %0.6–4.0
Dot: mean; bar: 95% of simulations. Share of valid votes.
Seats
| Party | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 95 % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PP | 30 | 69 | 1 | 3 (2–3) | ||||
| Vox | 10 | 86 | 5 | 2 (1–3) | ||||
| PSOE | 67 | 33 | 1 (1–2) |
Probability (%) of each seat count. 95%: median and 95% range of simulations.
The closest seat
3.º seat for PP: 70 %; challenger PSOE (33 %).
Senate
The Senate in Almería
29N forecast
4 senators · joint PSOE + Frente Amplio list
| List | % vote | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | Mean (95%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PP | 37.2 29.6–45.2 | 9 | 12 | 78 | 2.7 (1–3) | ||
| Vox | 28.2 21.2–35.8 | 27 | 57 | 9 | 7 | 1.0 (0–3) | |
| PSOE + Frente Amplio | 25.1 19.1–31.8 | 69 | 27 | 3 | 1 | 0.4 (0–2) | |
| Otros | 2.9 0.9–7.0 | >99 | 0.0 (0–0) | ||||
| Se Acabó La Fiesta | 2.5 0.9–5.4 | >99 | 0.0 (0–0) | ||||
| Adelante Andalucía | 2.3 1.0–4.6 | >99 | 0.0 (0–0) | ||||
| Podemos | 1.8 0.6–4.1 | >99 | 0.0 (0–0) |
Most likely splits
- PP 3 · Vox 155 %
- PP 3 · PSOE + Frente Amplio 124 %
- PP 2 · Vox 28 %
- Vox 3 · PP 16 %
% vote: list estimate (mean and 95% interval), share of votes for lists. Columns 0, 1, 2…: probability (%) of each number of senators; Mean (95%): expected senators and 95% range.
Senators elected in 2023
| Senator | Party | Votes |
|---|---|---|
| Miguel Ángel Castellón Rubio | PP | 129,806 |
| Juan José Matarí Sáez | PP | 125,559 |
| Carmen Belén López Zapata | PP | 124,493 |
| Antonio Martínez Rodríguez | PSOE | 91,868 |
2023 result
| Party | % | 2023 seats | With 2026 seats |
|---|---|---|---|
| PP | 40.9 | 3 | 3 |
| PSOE | 29.0 | 2 | 2 |
| Vox | 21.3 | 1 | 1 |
| Por Andalucía | 6.7 | – | – |
The last seat, 2026 forecast
| Holds it | Just short | |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | PP · 49 % | PSOE · 43 % |
| 2 | Vox · 27 % | PP · 32 % |
| 3 | PSOE · 24 % | Vox · 25 % |
| 4 | Por Andalucía · <1 % | Por Andalucía · <1 % |
Votes the challenger would need: median 10,313 (interquartile range 4,675–18,455), 2.97 % of valid votes. Across the 50,000 forecast simulations.
The last seat, 2008–2023
| Election | Won by | Runner-up | Transfer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2008 | PSOE | PP | 8,565 |
| 2011 | PP | PSOE | 23,824 |
| 2015 | IU/UP/Sumar | PP | 427 |
| 2016 | Cs | IU/UP/Sumar | 660 |
| 2019A | PP | PSOE | 4,802 |
| 2019N | PP | PSOE | 11,126 |
| 2023 | PP | VOX | 11,592 |
Votes the runner-up would need to take from the winner to flip the seat.