7 seats · estimated turnout 72.8 % (2023: 62.9 %)
Asturias
Preliminary forecast updated 20 October 2026, from 50,000 simulations.
Estimated vote
PP34.3 %26.0–43.1
PSOE28.0 %20.6–36.1
Vox18.8 %13.1–25.5
Frente Amplio7.7 %3.4–14.5
Podemos5.5 %2.0–12.0
Se Acabó La Fiesta1.6 %0.6–3.6
Dot: mean; bar: 95% of simulations. Share of valid votes.
Seats
| Party | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 95 % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PP | 13 | 73 | 14 | 3 (2–4) | |||||
| PSOE | 2 | 63 | 35 | 2 (2–3) | |||||
| Vox | 62 | 38 | 1 (1–2) | ||||||
| Frente Amplio | 82 | 17 | 0 (0–1) | ||||||
| Podemos | 94 | 6 | 0 (0–1) |
Probability (%) of each seat count. 95%: median and 95% range of simulations.
The closest seat
2.º seat for Vox: 38 %; challenger PSOE (36 %).
Senate
The Senate in Asturias
29N forecast
4 senators · joint PSOE + Frente Amplio list
| List | % vote | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | Mean (95%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PSOE + Frente Amplio | 34.9 26.8–43.6 | 39 | 21 | 40 | 2.0 (1–3) | ||
| PP | 34.8 26.6–43.6 | 39 | 21 | 39 | 2.0 (1–3) | ||
| Vox | 19.1 13.3–25.8 | 99 | 1 | 0.0 (0–0) | |||
| Podemos | 5.6 2.0–12.2 | >99 | 0.0 (0–0) | ||||
| Otros | 4.0 1.2–9.4 | >99 | 0.0 (0–0) | ||||
| Se Acabó La Fiesta | 1.7 0.6–3.7 | >99 | 0.0 (0–0) |
Most likely splits
- PSOE + Frente Amplio 3 · PP 139 %
- PP 3 · PSOE + Frente Amplio 139 %
- PP 2 · PSOE + Frente Amplio 221 %
- PSOE + Frente Amplio 3 · Vox 11 %
% vote: list estimate (mean and 95% interval), share of votes for lists. Columns 0, 1, 2…: probability (%) of each number of senators; Mean (95%): expected senators and 95% range.
Senators elected in 2023
| Senator | Party | Votes |
|---|---|---|
| Pablo González Menéndez | PP | 216,691 |
| María Fernández Álvarez | PSOE | 215,066 |
| María Teresa Mallada de Castro | PP | 213,858 |
| José Manuel Fernández Díaz (Chami) | PP | 209,295 |
2023 result
| Party | % | 2023 seats | With 2026 seats |
|---|---|---|---|
| PP | 35.7 | 3 | 3 |
| PSOE | 34.3 | 2 | 2 |
| Frente Amplio | 14.9 | 1 | 1 |
| Vox | 12.5 | 1 | 1 |
The last seat, 2026 forecast
| Holds it | Just short | |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | PP · 36 % | PSOE · 32 % |
| 2 | PSOE · 29 % | PP · 31 % |
| 3 | Vox · 24 % | Vox · 26 % |
| 4 | Frente Amplio · 8 % | Frente Amplio · 9 % |
Votes the challenger would need: median 12,507 (interquartile range 5,205–25,453), 2.04 % of valid votes. Across the 50,000 forecast simulations.
The last seat, 2008–2023
| Election | Won by | Runner-up | Transfer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2008 | PP | PSOE | 15,625 |
| 2011 | PSOE | PP | 10,056 |
| 2015 | PP | IU/UP/Sumar | 7,455 |
| 2016 | PP | PSOE | 30,856 |
| 2019A | PSOE | PP | 15,727 |
| 2019N | PSOE | IU/UP/Sumar | 20,904 |
| 2023 | PP | PSOE | 3,884 |
Votes the runner-up would need to take from the winner to flip the seat.