3 seats · estimated turnout 78.4 % (2023: 72.5 %)
Ávila
Preliminary forecast updated 20 October 2026, from 50,000 simulations.
Estimated vote
PP38.5 %27.5–48.7
PSOE21.9 %14.9–29.5
Vox20.0 %13.2–27.6
Se Acabó La Fiesta2.8 %1.0–6.3
Frente Amplio2.7 %1.1–5.5
Podemos2.3 %0.7–5.2
Dot: mean; bar: 95% of simulations. Share of valid votes.
Seats
| Party | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 95 % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PP | 47 | 53 | 2 (1–2) | ||
| PSOE | 16 | 84 | 1 (0–1) | ||
| Vox | 38 | 62 | 1 (0–1) |
Probability (%) of each seat count. 95%: median and 95% range of simulations.
The closest seat
1.º seat for Vox: 62 %; challenger PP (53 %).
Senate
The Senate in Ávila
29N forecast
4 senators · joint PSOE + Frente Amplio list
| List | % vote | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | Mean (95%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PP | 38.8 28.0–48.9 | 2 | 4 | 94 | 2.9 (2–3) | ||
| PSOE + Frente Amplio | 23.9 16.6–31.7 | 28 | 68 | 3 | 1 | 0.8 (0–2) | |
| Vox | 20.1 13.4–27.7 | 80 | 19 | 0.2 (0–1) | |||
| Otros | 12.1 4.7–30.8 | 91 | 9 | 0.1 (0–1) | |||
| Se Acabó La Fiesta | 2.8 1.0–6.3 | >99 | 0.0 (0–0) | ||||
| Podemos | 2.3 0.7–5.3 | >99 | 0.0 (0–0) |
Most likely splits
- PP 3 · PSOE + Frente Amplio 167 %
- PP 3 · Vox 118 %
- PP 3 · Otros 19 %
- PP 2 · PSOE + Frente Amplio 23 %
% vote: list estimate (mean and 95% interval), share of votes for lists. Columns 0, 1, 2…: probability (%) of each number of senators; Mean (95%): expected senators and 95% range.
Senators elected in 2023
| Senator | Party | Votes |
|---|---|---|
| Juan Pablo Martín Martín | PP | 42,755 |
| Alicia García Rodríguez | PP | 41,693 |
| Piedad Sánchez García | PP | 40,692 |
| Jesús Caro Adanero | PSOE | 25,946 |
2023 result
| Party | % | 2023 seats | With 2026 seats |
|---|---|---|---|
| PP | 43.3 | 2 | 2 |
| PSOE | 27.4 | 1 | 1 |
| Vox | 15.4 | – | – |
| XAV | 7.5 | – | – |
| Frente Amplio | 5.1 | – | – |
The last seat, 2026 forecast
| Holds it | Just short | |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vox · 36 % | PP · 48 % |
| 2 | PP · 35 % | Vox · 36 % |
| 3 | PSOE · 29 % | PSOE · 16 % |
| 4 | Se Acabó La Fiesta · <1 % | Se Acabó La Fiesta · <1 % |
Votes the challenger would need: median 2,858 (interquartile range 1,250–5,627), 2.87 % of valid votes. Across the 50,000 forecast simulations.
The last seat, 2008–2023
| Election | Won by | Runner-up | Transfer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2008 | PP | PSOE | 13,513 |
| 2011 | PSOE | PP | 1,809 |
| 2015 | PSOE | Cs | 2,142 |
| 2016 | PSOE | PP | 1,725 |
| 2019A | Cs | PP | 2,068 |
| 2019N | VOX | PP | 700 |
| 2023 | PP | VOX | 4,078 |
Votes the runner-up would need to take from the winner to flip the seat.