5 seats · estimated turnout 75.4 % (2023: 72.3 %)
Badajoz
Preliminary forecast updated 20 October 2026, from 50,000 simulations.
Estimated vote
PP36.3 %27.7–45.3
PSOE31.0 %23.0–39.7
Vox20.1 %14.1–27.3
Frente Amplio4.1 %1.8–8.0
Podemos2.5 %0.8–5.7
Se Acabó La Fiesta2.3 %0.8–5.2
Dot: mean; bar: 95% of simulations. Share of valid votes.
Seats
| Party | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 95 % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PP | 1 | 86 | 13 | 2 (2–3) | |||
| PSOE | 14 | 85 | 1 | 2 (1–2) | |||
| Vox | 2 | 96 | 3 | 1 (1–2) |
Probability (%) of each seat count. 95%: median and 95% range of simulations.
The closest seat
2.º seat for PSOE: 86 %; challenger PP (13 %).
Senate
The Senate in Badajoz
29N forecast
4 senators · joint PSOE + Frente Amplio list
| List | % vote | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | Mean (95%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PP | 36.7 28.2–45.7 | 28 | 20 | 52 | 2.2 (1–3) | ||
| PSOE + Frente Amplio | 34.1 26.0–42.8 | 1 | 51 | 19 | 28 | 1.7 (1–3) | |
| Vox | 20.4 14.3–27.5 | 98 | 2 | 0.0 (0–0) | |||
| Otros | 3.9 1.2–9.3 | >99 | 0.0 (0–0) | ||||
| Podemos | 2.5 0.9–5.7 | >99 | 0.0 (0–0) | ||||
| Se Acabó La Fiesta | 2.4 0.8–5.2 | >99 | 0.0 (0–0) |
Most likely splits
- PP 3 · PSOE + Frente Amplio 151 %
- PSOE + Frente Amplio 3 · PP 128 %
- PP 2 · PSOE + Frente Amplio 219 %
- PP 3 · Vox 11 %
% vote: list estimate (mean and 95% interval), share of votes for lists. Columns 0, 1, 2…: probability (%) of each number of senators; Mean (95%): expected senators and 95% range.
Senators elected in 2023
| Senator | Party | Votes |
|---|---|---|
| Rafael Damián Lemus Rubiales | PSOE | 151,087 |
| María Teresa Macías Mateos | PSOE | 150,764 |
| José Antonio Monago Terraza | PP | 148,448 |
| Carmen Pagador López | PP | 147,020 |
2023 result
| Party | % | 2023 seats | With 2026 seats |
|---|---|---|---|
| PSOE | 39.2 | 2 | 2 |
| PP | 37.8 | 2 | 2 |
| Vox | 13.7 | 1 | 1 |
| Frente Amplio | 6.8 | – | – |
The last seat, 2026 forecast
| Holds it | Just short | |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | PSOE · 58 % | PP · 55 % |
| 2 | PP · 31 % | PSOE · 30 % |
| 3 | Vox · 11 % | Vox · 14 % |
| 4 | Frente Amplio · <1 % | Frente Amplio · <1 % |
Votes the challenger would need: median 27,989 (interquartile range 12,944–45,164), 6.99 % of valid votes. Across the 50,000 forecast simulations.
The last seat, 2008–2023
| Election | Won by | Runner-up | Transfer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2008 | PP | PSOE | 6,185 |
| 2011 | PP | PSOE | 920 |
| 2015 | IU/UP/Sumar | PP | 1,116 |
| 2016 | IU/UP/Sumar | PSOE | 2,039 |
| 2019A | VOX | PP | 2,168 |
| 2019N | PP | PSOE | 14,391 |
| 2023 | VOX | PSOE | 1,751 |
Votes the runner-up would need to take from the winner to flip the seat.