32 seats · estimated turnout 73.4 % (2023: 63.4 %)
Barcelona
Preliminary forecast updated 20 October 2026, from 50,000 simulations.
Estimated vote
PSC32.0 %23.7–40.0
PP16.6 %11.5–22.3
ERC15.4 %9.2–25.1
Vox13.4 %9.0–18.5
Frente Amplio8.4 %4.0–15.1
Junts7.8 %4.1–13.6
Se Acabó La Fiesta1.2 %0.4–2.6
Dot: mean; bar: 95% of simulations. Share of valid votes.
Seats
| Party | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 95 % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PSC | 2 | 6 | 16 | 27 | 26 | 15 | 5 | 1 | 11 (9–14) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| PP | 1 | 9 | 33 | 37 | 16 | 3 | 6 (4–8) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ERC | 1 | 6 | 23 | 34 | 21 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 5 (3–9) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Vox | 11 | 40 | 36 | 11 | 2 | 4 (3–6) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Frente Amplio | 10 | 39 | 34 | 12 | 3 | 1 | 3 (1–5) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Junts | 10 | 50 | 30 | 7 | 2 | 2 (1–5) |
Probability (%) of each seat count. 95%: median and 95% range of simulations.
In Catalonia the PSOE runs as the PSC (same colour).
The closest seat
5.º seat for Vox: 49 %; challenger PSC (49 %).
Senate
The Senate in Barcelona
29N forecast
4 senators
| List | % vote | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | Mean (95%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PSC | 32.4 24.2–40.3 | 2 | 2 | 96 | 2.9 (2–3) | ||
| PP | 16.8 11.7–22.5 | 44 | 55 | 0.6 (0–1) | |||
| ERC | 15.6 9.3–25.3 | 68 | 30 | 1 | 2 | 0.4 (0–2) | |
| Vox | 13.6 9.2–18.7 | 91 | 9 | 0.1 (0–1) | |||
| Frente Amplio | 8.5 4.0–15.2 | 98 | 2 | 0.0 (0–0) | |||
| Junts | 7.9 4.2–13.8 | 99 | 0.0 (0–0) | ||||
| Otros | 4.0 1.4–11.9 | >99 | 0.0 (0–0) | ||||
| Se Acabó La Fiesta | 1.2 0.4–2.6 | >99 | 0.0 (0–0) |
Most likely splits
- PSC 3 · PP 155 %
- PSC 3 · ERC 130 %
- PSC 3 · Vox 19 %
- ERC 3 · PSC 12 %
% vote: list estimate (mean and 95% interval), share of votes for lists. Columns 0, 1, 2…: probability (%) of each number of senators; Mean (95%): expected senators and 95% range.
Senators elected in 2023
| Senator | Party | Votes |
|---|---|---|
| MANUEL CRUZ RODRÍGUEZ | PSC | 858,698 |
| ELENA VILA GÓMEZ | PSC | 829,562 |
| GABRIEL COLOMÉ GARCÍA | PSC | 769,248 |
| Joan Queralt i Jiménez | ERC | 488,137 |
2023 result
| Party | % | 2023 seats | With 2026 seats |
|---|---|---|---|
| PSC | 35.7 | 13 | 13 |
| Frente Amplio | 15.2 | 5 | 5 |
| PP | 13.8 | 5 | 5 |
| ERC | 12.3 | 4 | 4 |
| Junts | 9.7 | 3 | 3 |
| Vox | 7.6 | 2 | 2 |
| CUP-PR | 2.5 | – | – |
| PACMA | 1.1 | – | – |
The last seat, 2026 forecast
| Holds it | Just short | |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | PSC · 35 % | PSC · 31 % |
| 2 | PP · 18 % | PP · 19 % |
| 3 | ERC · 17 % | ERC · 17 % |
| 4 | Vox · 14 % | Vox · 15 % |
Votes the challenger would need: median 11,769 (interquartile range 4,744–25,135), 0.39 % of valid votes. Across the 50,000 forecast simulations.
The last seat, 2008–2023
| Election | Won by | Runner-up | Transfer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2008 | PP | CiU/Junts | 522 |
| 2011 | PSOE | CiU/Junts | 8,521 |
| 2015 | PP | PSOE | 7,353 |
| 2016 | Cs | PSOE | 5,121 |
| 2019A | IU/UP/Sumar | ERC | 18,724 |
| 2019N | PSOE | ERC | 9,705 |
| 2023 | PSOE | IU/UP/Sumar | 22,957 |
Votes the runner-up would need to take from the winner to flip the seat.