8 seats · estimated turnout 72.7 % (2023: 65.2 %)
Bizkaia
Preliminary forecast updated 20 October 2026, from 50,000 simulations.
Estimated vote
EAJ-PNV25.9 %13.8–44.1
PSOE21.7 %11.5–30.7
EH Bildu21.6 %11.2–37.7
PP12.9 %6.6–19.0
Frente Amplio5.6 %2.0–11.2
Vox5.5 %2.7–8.6
Podemos3.9 %1.1–8.6
Se Acabó La Fiesta0.8 %0.2–1.9
Dot: mean; bar: 95% of simulations. Share of valid votes.
Seats
| Party | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 95 % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EAJ-PNV | 6 | 44 | 39 | 8 | 2 | 2 (1–5) | ||||
| PSOE | 1 | 14 | 59 | 25 | 1 | 2 (1–3) | ||||
| EH Bildu | 18 | 59 | 18 | 3 | 2 (1–4) | |||||
| PP | 7 | 81 | 12 | 1 (0–2) | ||||||
| Frente Amplio | 89 | 11 | 0 (0–1) |
Probability (%) of each seat count. 95%: median and 95% range of simulations.
The closest seat
3.º seat for EAJ-PNV: 50 %; challenger PSOE (26 %).
Senate
The Senate in Bizkaia
29N forecast
4 senators · joint PSOE + Frente Amplio list
| List | % vote | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | Mean (95%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PSOE + Frente Amplio | 26.5 14.4–36.8 | 19 | 26 | 12 | 42 | 1.8 (0–3) | |
| EAJ-PNV | 26.1 13.9–44.4 | 23 | 36 | 12 | 29 | 1.5 (0–3) | |
| EH Bildu | 21.8 11.3–37.9 | 55 | 27 | 7 | 11 | 0.7 (0–3) | |
| PP | 13.0 6.7–19.2 | 98 | 2 | 0.0 (0–0) | |||
| Vox | 5.5 2.7–8.6 | >99 | 0.0 (0–0) | ||||
| Podemos | 3.9 1.2–8.7 | >99 | 0.0 (0–0) | ||||
| Otros | 2.4 0.6–5.6 | >99 | 0.0 (0–0) |
Most likely splits
- PSOE + Frente Amplio 3 · EAJ-PNV 127 %
- EAJ-PNV 3 · PSOE + Frente Amplio 119 %
- PSOE + Frente Amplio 3 · EH Bildu 114 %
- EAJ-PNV 3 · EH Bildu 110 %
% vote: list estimate (mean and 95% interval), share of votes for lists. Columns 0, 1, 2…: probability (%) of each number of senators; Mean (95%): expected senators and 95% range.
Senators elected in 2023
| Senator | Party | Votes |
|---|---|---|
| Nerea Ahedo Ceza | EAJ-PNV | 176,614 |
| María Dolores Etxano Varela | EAJ-PNV | 167,622 |
| Igotz Lopez Torre | EAJ-PNV | 164,577 |
| Txema Oleaga Zalvidea | PSE-EE (PSOE) | 154,134 |
2023 result
| Party | % | 2023 seats | With 2026 seats |
|---|---|---|---|
| EAJ-PNV | 26.9 | 2 | 2 |
| PSOE | 25.8 | 2 | 2 |
| EH Bildu | 20.6 | 2 | 2 |
| PP | 11.6 | 1 | 1 |
| Frente Amplio | 10.9 | 1 | 1 |
| Vox | 2.6 | – | – |
The last seat, 2026 forecast
| Holds it | Just short | |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | EAJ-PNV · 30 % | EAJ-PNV · 28 % |
| 2 | EH Bildu · 25 % | PSOE · 24 % |
| 3 | PSOE · 25 % | EH Bildu · 24 % |
| 4 | PP · 11 % | PP · 13 % |
Votes the challenger would need: median 10,326 (interquartile range 4,215–21,950), 1.56 % of valid votes. Across the 50,000 forecast simulations.
The last seat, 2008–2023
| Election | Won by | Runner-up | Transfer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2008 | PSOE | PP | 384 |
| 2011 | Bildu | PP | 4,698 |
| 2015 | PNV | IU/UP/Sumar | 5,938 |
| 2016 | IU/UP/Sumar | PNV | 2,026 |
| 2019A | IU/UP/Sumar | PNV | 2,522 |
| 2019N | PP | PNV | 101 |
| 2023 | Bildu | PNV | 9,845 |
Votes the runner-up would need to take from the winner to flip the seat.