4 seats · estimated turnout 76.1 % (2023: 69.1 %)
Burgos
Preliminary forecast updated 20 October 2026, from 50,000 simulations.
Estimated vote
PP38.0 %29.2–47.1
PSOE27.6 %20.3–35.7
Vox18.9 %13.2–25.6
Frente Amplio5.1 %2.2–10.0
Podemos3.2 %1.1–7.2
Se Acabó La Fiesta2.0 %0.7–4.4
Dot: mean; bar: 95% of simulations. Share of valid votes.
Seats
| Party | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 95 % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PP | 6 | 91 | 3 | 2 (1–3) | ||
| PSOE | 88 | 12 | 1 (1–2) | |||
| Vox | 10 | 90 | 1 (0–1) |
Probability (%) of each seat count. 95%: median and 95% range of simulations.
The closest seat
1.º seat for Vox: 90 %; challenger PSOE (12 %).
Senate
The Senate in Burgos
29N forecast
4 senators · joint PSOE + Frente Amplio list
| List | % vote | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | Mean (95%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PP | 38.5 29.8–47.5 | 14 | 16 | 70 | 2.6 (1–3) | ||
| PSOE + Frente Amplio | 31.9 24.2–40.2 | 1 | 69 | 15 | 14 | 1.4 (1–3) | |
| Vox | 19.2 13.4–25.9 | 98 | 2 | 0.0 (0–0) | |||
| Otros | 5.2 1.7–13.1 | >99 | 0.0 (0–0) | ||||
| Podemos | 3.2 1.1–7.2 | >99 | 0.0 (0–0) | ||||
| Se Acabó La Fiesta | 2.0 0.7–4.5 | >99 | 0.0 (0–0) |
Most likely splits
- PP 3 · PSOE + Frente Amplio 169 %
- PP 2 · PSOE + Frente Amplio 215 %
- PSOE + Frente Amplio 3 · PP 114 %
- PP 3 · Vox 11 %
% vote: list estimate (mean and 95% interval), share of votes for lists. Columns 0, 1, 2…: probability (%) of each number of senators; Mean (95%): expected senators and 95% range.
Senators elected in 2023
| Senator | Party | Votes |
|---|---|---|
| Francisco Javier Lacalle Lacalle | PP | 81,393 |
| Salvador de Foronda Vaquero | PP | 80,357 |
| Raquel González Benito | PP | 78,401 |
| Ander Gil García | PSOE | 69,754 |
2023 result
| Party | % | 2023 seats | With 2026 seats |
|---|---|---|---|
| PP | 40.6 | 2 | 2 |
| PSOE | 34.5 | 2 | 2 |
| Vox | 12.8 | – | – |
| Frente Amplio | 8.6 | – | – |
The last seat, 2026 forecast
| Holds it | Just short | |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | PP · 46 % | PSOE · 59 % |
| 2 | Vox · 43 % | PP · 29 % |
| 3 | PSOE · 11 % | Vox · 12 % |
| 4 | Frente Amplio · <1 % | Frente Amplio · <1 % |
Votes the challenger would need: median 14,387 (interquartile range 6,513–23,293), 6.80 % of valid votes. Across the 50,000 forecast simulations.
The last seat, 2008–2023
| Election | Won by | Runner-up | Transfer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2008 | PSOE | PP | 9,476 |
| 2011 | PP | PSOE | 10,497 |
| 2015 | IU/UP/Sumar | Cs | 1,630 |
| 2016 | IU/UP/Sumar | Cs | 2,673 |
| 2019A | PSOE | IU/UP/Sumar | 3,139 |
| 2019N | PP | VOX | 691 |
| 2023 | PSOE | PP | 8,934 |
Votes the runner-up would need to take from the winner to flip the seat.