4 seats · estimated turnout 75.5 % (2023: 70.6 %)
Cáceres
Preliminary forecast updated 20 October 2026, from 50,000 simulations.
Estimated vote
PP36.6 %28.0–45.7
PSOE31.2 %23.2–39.8
Vox19.6 %13.7–26.6
Frente Amplio3.8 %1.6–7.5
Se Acabó La Fiesta2.6 %0.9–5.7
Podemos2.5 %0.8–5.6
Dot: mean; bar: 95% of simulations. Share of valid votes.
Seats
| Party | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 95 % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PP | 19 | 80 | 1 | 2 (1–2) | ||
| PSOE | 70 | 30 | 1 (1–2) | |||
| Vox | 13 | 87 | 1 (0–1) |
Probability (%) of each seat count. 95%: median and 95% range of simulations.
The closest seat
2.º seat for PP: 81 %; challenger PSOE (30 %).
Senate
The Senate in Cáceres
29N forecast
4 senators · joint PSOE + Frente Amplio list
| List | % vote | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | Mean (95%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PP | 37.0 28.4–46.0 | 27 | 19 | 54 | 2.3 (1–3) | ||
| PSOE + Frente Amplio | 33.9 25.9–42.6 | 1 | 53 | 19 | 27 | 1.7 (1–3) | |
| Vox | 19.8 13.9–26.8 | 98 | 2 | 0.0 (0–0) | |||
| Otros | 4.2 1.3–10.2 | >99 | 0.0 (0–0) | ||||
| Se Acabó La Fiesta | 2.6 0.9–5.7 | >99 | 0.0 (0–0) | ||||
| Podemos | 2.5 0.8–5.7 | >99 | 0.0 (0–0) |
Most likely splits
- PP 3 · PSOE + Frente Amplio 153 %
- PSOE + Frente Amplio 3 · PP 126 %
- PP 2 · PSOE + Frente Amplio 219 %
- PP 3 · Vox 11 %
% vote: list estimate (mean and 95% interval), share of votes for lists. Columns 0, 1, 2…: probability (%) of each number of senators; Mean (95%): expected senators and 95% range.
Senators elected in 2023
| Senator | Party | Votes |
|---|---|---|
| Mónica Grados Caro | PP | 90,104 |
| Miguel Ángel Nacarino Muriel | PSOE | 89,108 |
| María Isabel Moreno Duque | PSOE | 88,668 |
| María Dolores Marcos Moyano | PP | 88,062 |
2023 result
| Party | % | 2023 seats | With 2026 seats |
|---|---|---|---|
| PSOE | 38.9 | 2 | 2 |
| PP | 38.0 | 2 | 2 |
| Vox | 13.6 | – | – |
| Frente Amplio | 6.9 | – | – |
The last seat, 2026 forecast
| Holds it | Just short | |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | PP · 47 % | PSOE · 59 % |
| 2 | Vox · 30 % | PP · 27 % |
| 3 | PSOE · 23 % | Vox · 13 % |
| 4 | Frente Amplio · <1 % | Frente Amplio · <1 % |
Votes the challenger would need: median 10,556 (interquartile range 4,411–19,308), 4.40 % of valid votes. Across the 50,000 forecast simulations.
The last seat, 2008–2023
| Election | Won by | Runner-up | Transfer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2008 | PP | PSOE | 11,491 |
| 2011 | PSOE | PP | 2,826 |
| 2015 | PSOE | IU/UP/Sumar | 5,100 |
| 2016 | PSOE | IU/UP/Sumar | 4,147 |
| 2019A | Cs | PSOE | 8,585 |
| 2019N | VOX | PP | 3,363 |
| 2023 | PP | VOX | 8,494 |
Votes the runner-up would need to take from the winner to flip the seat.