8 seats · estimated turnout 68.5 % (2023: 63.3 %)
Cádiz
Preliminary forecast updated 20 October 2026, from 50,000 simulations.
Estimated vote
PP32.3 %24.9–40.0
PSOE23.3 %17.2–30.1
Vox22.1 %16.0–28.8
Adelante Andalucía10.3 %4.8–19.1
Por Andalucía4.8 %2.1–9.4
Se Acabó La Fiesta1.9 %0.7–4.3
Podemos1.5 %0.5–3.4
Dot: mean; bar: 95% of simulations. Share of valid votes.
Seats
| Party | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 95 % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PP | 6 | 72 | 21 | 3 (2–4) | ||||||
| PSOE | 4 | 79 | 17 | 2 (1–3) | ||||||
| Vox | 8 | 82 | 10 | 2 (1–3) | ||||||
| Adelante Andalucía | 38 | 59 | 3 | 1 (0–2) |
Probability (%) of each seat count. 95%: median and 95% range of simulations.
The closest seat
1.º seat for Adelante Andalucía: 63 %; challenger PP (21 %).
Senate
The Senate in Cádiz
29N forecast
4 senators · joint PSOE + Frente Amplio list
| List | % vote | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | Mean (95%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PP | 32.8 25.4–40.5 | 2 | 16 | 17 | 65 | 2.5 (1–3) | |
| PSOE + Frente Amplio | 27.6 20.8–34.9 | 15 | 57 | 15 | 14 | 1.3 (0–3) | |
| Vox | 22.4 16.3–29.2 | 81 | 15 | 3 | 1 | 0.2 (0–2) | |
| Adelante Andalucía | 10.5 4.9–19.4 | 99 | 0.0 (0–0) | ||||
| Otros | 3.3 1.0–7.9 | >99 | 0.0 (0–0) | ||||
| Se Acabó La Fiesta | 2.0 0.7–4.3 | >99 | 0.0 (0–0) | ||||
| Podemos | 1.5 0.5–3.5 | >99 | 0.0 (0–0) |
Most likely splits
- PP 3 · PSOE + Frente Amplio 154 %
- PP 2 · PSOE + Frente Amplio 213 %
- PSOE + Frente Amplio 3 · PP 113 %
- PP 3 · Vox 111 %
% vote: list estimate (mean and 95% interval), share of votes for lists. Columns 0, 1, 2…: probability (%) of each number of senators; Mean (95%): expected senators and 95% range.
Senators elected in 2023
| Senator | Party | Votes |
|---|---|---|
| José Ignacio Landaluce Calleja | PP | 223,648 |
| María José García-Pelayo Jurado | PP | 216,236 |
| María del Carmen Pérez Becerra | PP | 208,400 |
| Alfonso Carlos Moscoso González | PSOE | 206,747 |
2023 result
| Party | % | 2023 seats | With 2026 seats |
|---|---|---|---|
| PP | 34.8 | 4 | 3 |
| PSOE | 33.2 | 3 | 3 |
| Vox | 15.2 | 1 | 1 |
| Por Andalucía | 12.9 | 1 | 1 |
| ADELANTE ANDALUCIA | 1.4 | – | – |
The last seat, 2026 forecast
| Holds it | Just short | |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | PP · 36 % | PP · 34 % |
| 2 | Vox · 23 % | PSOE · 27 % |
| 3 | PSOE · 22 % | Vox · 22 % |
| 4 | Adelante Andalucía · 17 % | Adelante Andalucía · 14 % |
Votes the challenger would need: median 15,355 (interquartile range 5,869–31,280), 2.24 % of valid votes. Across the 50,000 forecast simulations.
The last seat, 2008–2023
| Election | Won by | Runner-up | Transfer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2008 | PP | PSOE | 15,970 |
| 2011 | PP | IU/UP/Sumar | 3,432 |
| 2015 | PP | Cs | 14,751 |
| 2016 | PSOE | PP | 15,052 |
| 2019A | IU/UP/Sumar | PSOE | 3,828 |
| 2019N | Cs | PSOE | 6,738 |
| 2023 | PP | PSOE | 5,252 |
Votes the runner-up would need to take from the winner to flip the seat.