5 seats · estimated turnout 77.0 % (2023: 69.9 %)
Cantabria
Preliminary forecast updated 20 October 2026, from 50,000 simulations.
Estimated vote
PP39.1 %30.2–48.2
PSOE27.0 %19.8–35.1
Vox20.5 %14.4–27.7
Frente Amplio4.5 %2.0–8.9
Podemos3.8 %1.3–8.4
Se Acabó La Fiesta2.0 %0.7–4.5
Dot: mean; bar: 95% of simulations. Share of valid votes.
Seats
| Party | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 95 % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PP | 58 | 41 | 2 (2–3) | ||||
| PSOE | 46 | 54 | 2 (1–2) | ||||
| Vox | 1 | 94 | 5 | 1 (1–2) |
Probability (%) of each seat count. 95%: median and 95% range of simulations.
The closest seat
2.º seat for PSOE: 54 %; challenger PP (42 %).
Senate
The Senate in Cantabria
29N forecast
4 senators · joint PSOE + Frente Amplio list
| List | % vote | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | Mean (95%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PP | 39.6 30.8–48.7 | 10 | 12 | 78 | 2.7 (1–3) | ||
| PSOE + Frente Amplio | 30.8 23.3–39.1 | 4 | 74 | 12 | 10 | 1.3 (0–3) | |
| Vox | 20.8 14.7–28.0 | 95 | 5 | 0.1 (0–1) | |||
| Podemos | 3.8 1.3–8.5 | >99 | 0.0 (0–0) | ||||
| Otros | 3.0 0.8–6.9 | >99 | 0.0 (0–0) | ||||
| Se Acabó La Fiesta | 2.1 0.7–4.5 | >99 | 0.0 (0–0) |
Most likely splits
- PP 3 · PSOE + Frente Amplio 174 %
- PP 2 · PSOE + Frente Amplio 212 %
- PSOE + Frente Amplio 3 · PP 19 %
- PP 3 · Vox 14 %
% vote: list estimate (mean and 95% interval), share of votes for lists. Columns 0, 1, 2…: probability (%) of each number of senators; Mean (95%): expected senators and 95% range.
Senators elected in 2023
| Senator | Party | Votes |
|---|---|---|
| Elena Castillo López | PP | 151,183 |
| Severiano Ángel Cuesta Alonso | PP | 147,367 |
| Juan Carlos García Diego | PP | 145,735 |
| Secundino Caso Roiz | PSOE | 116,730 |
2023 result
| Party | % | 2023 seats | With 2026 seats |
|---|---|---|---|
| PP | 42.1 | 2 | 2 |
| PSOE | 33.3 | 2 | 2 |
| Vox | 14.1 | 1 | 1 |
| Frente Amplio | 8.5 | – | – |
The last seat, 2026 forecast
| Holds it | Just short | |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | PSOE · 47 % | PP · 45 % |
| 2 | PP · 43 % | PSOE · 39 % |
| 3 | Vox · 9 % | Vox · 15 % |
| 4 | Frente Amplio · <1 % | Frente Amplio · <1 % |
Votes the challenger would need: median 14,461 (interquartile range 6,504–25,936), 3.98 % of valid votes. Across the 50,000 forecast simulations.
The last seat, 2008–2023
| Election | Won by | Runner-up | Transfer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2008 | PP | PSOE | 11,788 |
| 2011 | PP | PSOE | 1,999 |
| 2015 | Cs | PP | 7,725 |
| 2016 | Cs | PP | 1,407 |
| 2019A | PSOE | VOX | 3,419 |
| 2019N | PP | PSOE | 4,278 |
| 2023 | VOX | PP | 101 |
Votes the runner-up would need to take from the winner to flip the seat.