1 seats · estimated turnout 61.2 % (2023: 53.2 %)
Ceuta
Preliminary forecast updated 20 October 2026, from 50,000 simulations.
Estimated vote
PP35.8 %27.2–45.0
Vox31.1 %22.6–40.3
PSOE25.8 %18.7–33.8
Se Acabó La Fiesta2.4 %0.9–5.5
Frente Amplio1.8 %0.8–3.7
Podemos0.9 %0.3–2.0
Dot: mean; bar: 95% of simulations. Share of valid votes.
Seats
| Party | 0 | 1 | 95 % |
|---|---|---|---|
| PP | 29 | 71 | 1 (0–1) |
| Vox | 75 | 25 | 0 (0–1) |
Probability (%) of each seat count. 95%: median and 95% range of simulations.
The closest seat
1.º seat for PP: 71 %; challenger Vox (25 %).
Senate
The Senate in Ceuta
29N forecast
2 senators · joint PSOE + Frente Amplio list
| List | % vote | 0 | 1 | 2 | Mean (95%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PP | 36.3 27.6–45.5 | 21 | 24 | 56 | 1.3 (0–2) |
| Vox | 31.5 23.0–40.8 | 64 | 20 | 16 | 0.5 (0–2) |
| PSOE + Frente Amplio | 27.0 19.8–35.0 | 90 | 7 | 3 | 0.1 (0–2) |
| Se Acabó La Fiesta | 2.5 0.9–5.6 | >99 | 0.0 (0–0) | ||
| Otros | 1.8 0.4–3.9 | >99 | 0.0 (0–0) |
Most likely splits
- PP 256 %
- PP 1 · Vox 119 %
- Vox 216 %
- PP 1 · PSOE + Frente Amplio 15 %
% vote: list estimate (mean and 95% interval), share of votes for lists. Columns 0, 1, 2…: probability (%) of each number of senators; Mean (95%): expected senators and 95% range.
Senators elected in 2023
| Senator | Party | Votes |
|---|---|---|
| Cristina Díaz Moreno | PP | 12,219 |
| Abdelhakim Abdeselam Al Lal | PP | 11,715 |
2023 result
| Party | % | 2023 seats | With 2026 seats |
|---|---|---|---|
| PP | 38.8 | 1 | 1 |
| PSOE | 34.0 | – | – |
| Vox | 23.3 | – | – |
| Frente Amplio | 2.5 | – | – |
The last seat, 2026 forecast
| Holds it | Just short | |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | PP · 71 % | Vox · 56 % |
| 2 | Vox · 25 % | PP · 24 % |
| 3 | PSOE · 4 % | PSOE · 20 % |
Votes the challenger would need: median 2,094 (interquartile range 971–3,592), 5.58 % of valid votes. Across the 50,000 forecast simulations.
The last seat, 2008–2023
| Election | Won by | Runner-up | Transfer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2008 | PP | PSOE | 2,663 |
| 2011 | PP | PSOE | 7,262 |
| 2015 | PP | PSOE | 3,594 |
| 2016 | PP | PSOE | 4,509 |
| 2019A | PSOE | VOX | 2,355 |
| 2019N | VOX | PSOE | 649 |
| 2023 | PP | PSOE | 794 |
Votes the runner-up would need to take from the winner to flip the seat.