5 seats · estimated turnout 75.9 % (2023: 73.3 %)
Ciudad Real
Preliminary forecast updated 20 October 2026, from 50,000 simulations.
Estimated vote
PP38.6 %29.9–47.5
PSOE28.0 %20.7–36.1
Vox22.8 %16.3–30.4
Frente Amplio3.5 %1.5–6.9
Se Acabó La Fiesta2.5 %0.9–5.6
Podemos2.2 %0.7–4.9
Dot: mean; bar: 95% of simulations. Share of valid votes.
Seats
| Party | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 95 % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PP | 69 | 31 | 2 (2–3) | ||||
| PSOE | 41 | 59 | 2 (1–2) | ||||
| Vox | 89 | 11 | 1 (1–2) |
Probability (%) of each seat count. 95%: median and 95% range of simulations.
The closest seat
2.º seat for PSOE: 59 %; challenger PP (31 %).
Senate
The Senate in Ciudad Real
29N forecast
4 senators · joint PSOE + Frente Amplio list
| List | % vote | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | Mean (95%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PP | 39.0 30.4–48.0 | 11 | 13 | 76 | 2.6 (1–3) | ||
| PSOE + Frente Amplio | 30.6 23.3–38.8 | 10 | 68 | 12 | 10 | 1.2 (0–3) | |
| Vox | 23.1 16.6–30.7 | 88 | 10 | 1 | 0.1 (0–1) | ||
| Se Acabó La Fiesta | 2.6 0.9–5.7 | >99 | 0.0 (0–0) | ||||
| Otros | 2.5 0.7–5.5 | >99 | 0.0 (0–0) | ||||
| Podemos | 2.2 0.7–5.0 | >99 | 0.0 (0–0) |
Most likely splits
- PP 3 · PSOE + Frente Amplio 167 %
- PP 2 · PSOE + Frente Amplio 212 %
- PSOE + Frente Amplio 3 · PP 110 %
- PP 3 · Vox 18 %
% vote: list estimate (mean and 95% interval), share of votes for lists. Columns 0, 1, 2…: probability (%) of each number of senators; Mean (95%): expected senators and 95% range.
Senators elected in 2023
| Senator | Party | Votes |
|---|---|---|
| Rosa María Romero Sánchez | PP | 117,847 |
| Leopoldo Jerónimo Sierra Gallardo | PP | 116,163 |
| Raúl Dalmacio Valero Mejía | PP | 114,024 |
| Julián Nieva Delgado | PSOE | 100,666 |
2023 result
| Party | % | 2023 seats | With 2026 seats |
|---|---|---|---|
| PP | 40.5 | 2 | 2 |
| PSOE | 35.4 | 2 | 2 |
| Vox | 16.3 | 1 | 1 |
| Frente Amplio | 6.2 | – | – |
The last seat, 2026 forecast
| Holds it | Just short | |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | PSOE · 51 % | PP · 44 % |
| 2 | PP · 37 % | PSOE · 33 % |
| 3 | Vox · 12 % | Vox · 23 % |
| 4 | Frente Amplio · <1 % | Frente Amplio · <1 % |
Votes the challenger would need: median 11,397 (interquartile range 5,112–20,747), 3.94 % of valid votes. Across the 50,000 forecast simulations.
The last seat, 2008–2023
| Election | Won by | Runner-up | Transfer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2008 | PP | PSOE | 1,570 |
| 2011 | PSOE | PP | 8,658 |
| 2015 | PP | IU/UP/Sumar | 704 |
| 2016 | PP | IU/UP/Sumar | 2,274 |
| 2019A | VOX | PP | 3,689 |
| 2019N | PP | PSOE | 8,083 |
| 2023 | VOX | PP | 5,858 |
Votes the runner-up would need to take from the winner to flip the seat.