6 seats · estimated turnout 75.3 % (2023: 70.6 %)
Córdoba
Preliminary forecast updated 20 October 2026, from 50,000 simulations.
Estimated vote
PP35.0 %27.4–42.9
PSOE24.2 %18.0–31.0
Vox20.3 %14.7–26.6
Adelante Andalucía6.1 %2.8–11.9
Por Andalucía6.1 %2.7–11.7
Podemos3.1 %1.1–6.9
Se Acabó La Fiesta2.1 %0.8–4.6
Dot: mean; bar: 95% of simulations. Share of valid votes.
Seats
| Party | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 95 % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PP | 24 | 73 | 3 | 3 (2–4) | ||||
| PSOE | 20 | 79 | 2 | 2 (1–2) | ||||
| Vox | 70 | 30 | 1 (1–2) |
Probability (%) of each seat count. 95%: median and 95% range of simulations.
The closest seat
3.º seat for PP: 76 %; challenger Vox (30 %).
Senate
The Senate in Córdoba
29N forecast
4 senators · joint PSOE + Frente Amplio list
| List | % vote | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | Mean (95%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PP | 35.5 27.9–43.3 | 14 | 16 | 69 | 2.5 (1–3) | ||
| PSOE + Frente Amplio | 29.6 22.7–37.2 | 4 | 67 | 16 | 14 | 1.4 (0–3) | |
| Vox | 20.6 15.0–26.9 | 95 | 5 | 0.1 (0–1) | |||
| Adelante Andalucía | 6.2 2.8–12.0 | >99 | 0.0 (0–0) | ||||
| Podemos | 3.1 1.1–7.0 | >99 | 0.0 (0–0) | ||||
| Otros | 2.9 0.8–6.8 | >99 | 0.0 (0–0) | ||||
| Se Acabó La Fiesta | 2.1 0.8–4.6 | >99 | 0.0 (0–0) |
Most likely splits
- PP 3 · PSOE + Frente Amplio 166 %
- PP 2 · PSOE + Frente Amplio 215 %
- PSOE + Frente Amplio 3 · PP 114 %
- PP 3 · Vox 14 %
% vote: list estimate (mean and 95% interval), share of votes for lists. Columns 0, 1, 2…: probability (%) of each number of senators; Mean (95%): expected senators and 95% range.
Senators elected in 2023
| Senator | Party | Votes |
|---|---|---|
| Fernando Priego Chacón | PP | 174,571 |
| Cristina Casanueva Jiménez | PP | 170,525 |
| Lorena Guerra Sánchez | PP | 166,484 |
| María de los Ángeles Luna Morales | PSOE | 146,697 |
2023 result
| Party | % | 2023 seats | With 2026 seats |
|---|---|---|---|
| PP | 37.9 | 2 | 2 |
| PSOE | 32.1 | 2 | 2 |
| Vox | 13.9 | 1 | 1 |
| Por Andalucía | 13.7 | 1 | 1 |
The last seat, 2026 forecast
| Holds it | Just short | |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | PP · 43 % | Vox · 39 % |
| 2 | PSOE · 33 % | PP · 31 % |
| 3 | Vox · 20 % | PSOE · 24 % |
| 4 | Por Andalucía · 2 % | Adelante Andalucía · 3 % |
Votes the challenger would need: median 11,350 (interquartile range 4,930–21,769), 2.43 % of valid votes. Across the 50,000 forecast simulations.
The last seat, 2008–2023
| Election | Won by | Runner-up | Transfer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2008 | PSOE | PP | 1,455 |
| 2011 | PSOE | PP | 7,753 |
| 2015 | Cs | PSOE | 4,397 |
| 2016 | Cs | PP | 2,999 |
| 2019A | VOX | PSOE | 1,940 |
| 2019N | PP | PSOE | 1,295 |
| 2023 | IU/UP/Sumar | PP | 3,702 |
Votes the runner-up would need to take from the winner to flip the seat.