3 seats · estimated turnout 78.5 % (2023: 75.5 %)
Cuenca
Preliminary forecast updated 20 October 2026, from 50,000 simulations.
Estimated vote
PP37.7 %29.1–46.6
PSOE30.1 %22.5–38.6
Vox21.2 %15.1–28.5
Frente Amplio3.2 %1.4–6.4
Se Acabó La Fiesta2.8 %1.0–6.2
Podemos2.4 %0.8–5.5
Dot: mean; bar: 95% of simulations. Share of valid votes.
Seats
| Party | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 95 % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PP | 71 | 29 | 1 (1–2) | ||
| PSOE | 96 | 3 | 1 (1–2) | ||
| Vox | 32 | 69 | 1 (0–1) |
Probability (%) of each seat count. 95%: median and 95% range of simulations.
The closest seat
1.º seat for Vox: 69 %; challenger PP (29 %).
Senate
The Senate in Cuenca
29N forecast
4 senators · joint PSOE + Frente Amplio list
| List | % vote | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | Mean (95%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PP | 38.1 29.6–47.1 | 17 | 16 | 66 | 2.5 (1–3) | ||
| PSOE + Frente Amplio | 32.4 24.8–40.9 | 3 | 64 | 16 | 17 | 1.5 (0–3) | |
| Vox | 21.5 15.3–28.8 | 95 | 4 | 0.1 (0–1) | |||
| Se Acabó La Fiesta | 2.8 1.0–6.2 | >99 | 0.0 (0–0) | ||||
| Otros | 2.7 0.7–5.9 | >99 | 0.0 (0–0) | ||||
| Podemos | 2.4 0.8–5.6 | >99 | 0.0 (0–0) |
Most likely splits
- PP 3 · PSOE + Frente Amplio 163 %
- PSOE + Frente Amplio 3 · PP 117 %
- PP 2 · PSOE + Frente Amplio 216 %
- PP 3 · Vox 13 %
% vote: list estimate (mean and 95% interval), share of votes for lists. Columns 0, 1, 2…: probability (%) of each number of senators; Mean (95%): expected senators and 95% range.
Senators elected in 2023
| Senator | Party | Votes |
|---|---|---|
| Benjamín Prieto Valencia | PP | 46,726 |
| María Jesús Bonilla Domínguez | PP | 45,986 |
| Alejo Joaquín Miranda de Larra Arnaiz | PP | 44,687 |
| Carmen Torralba Valiente | PSOE | 42,177 |
2023 result
| Party | % | 2023 seats | With 2026 seats |
|---|---|---|---|
| PP | 39.8 | 2 | 2 |
| PSOE | 37.4 | 1 | 1 |
| Vox | 15.6 | – | – |
| Frente Amplio | 5.6 | – | – |
The last seat, 2026 forecast
| Holds it | Just short | |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vox · 62 % | PP · 58 % |
| 2 | PP · 28 % | Vox · 27 % |
| 3 | PSOE · 10 % | PSOE · 16 % |
| 4 | Se Acabó La Fiesta · <1 % | Se Acabó La Fiesta · <1 % |
Votes the challenger would need: median 5,695 (interquartile range 2,331–11,275), 4.96 % of valid votes. Across the 50,000 forecast simulations.
The last seat, 2008–2023
| Election | Won by | Runner-up | Transfer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2008 | PP | PSOE | 3,088 |
| 2011 | PP | PSOE | 14,324 |
| 2015 | PP | PSOE | 6,859 |
| 2016 | PP | PSOE | 9,290 |
| 2019A | PSOE | VOX | 3,049 |
| 2019N | PSOE | VOX | 152 |
| 2023 | PP | PSOE | 1,364 |
Votes the runner-up would need to take from the winner to flip the seat.