7 seats · estimated turnout 73.9 % (2023: 66.6 %)
Granada
Preliminary forecast updated 20 October 2026, from 50,000 simulations.
Estimated vote
PP34.1 %26.8–41.9
PSOE25.0 %18.8–31.9
Vox22.5 %16.5–29.2
Por Andalucía5.2 %2.3–10.1
Adelante Andalucía5.0 %2.2–9.7
Podemos2.5 %0.9–5.7
Se Acabó La Fiesta2.3 %0.9–5.1
Dot: mean; bar: 95% of simulations. Share of valid votes.
Seats
| Party | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 95 % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PP | 8 | 83 | 9 | 3 (2–4) | |||||
| PSOE | 4 | 87 | 10 | 2 (1–3) | |||||
| Vox | 15 | 83 | 2 | 2 (1–2) |
Probability (%) of each seat count. 95%: median and 95% range of simulations.
The closest seat
2.º seat for Vox: 85 %; challenger PSOE (10 %).
Senate
The Senate in Granada
29N forecast
4 senators · joint PSOE + Frente Amplio list
| List | % vote | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | Mean (95%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PP | 34.5 27.2–42.3 | 1 | 16 | 17 | 65 | 2.5 (1–3) | |
| PSOE + Frente Amplio | 29.4 22.7–36.8 | 10 | 59 | 16 | 15 | 1.4 (0–3) | |
| Vox | 22.7 16.7–29.5 | 86 | 11 | 2 | 0.2 (0–2) | ||
| Adelante Andalucía | 5.1 2.2–9.8 | >99 | 0.0 (0–0) | ||||
| Otros | 3.3 1.0–8.0 | >99 | 0.0 (0–0) | ||||
| Podemos | 2.6 0.9–5.7 | >99 | 0.0 (0–0) | ||||
| Se Acabó La Fiesta | 2.4 0.9–5.2 | >99 | 0.0 (0–0) |
Most likely splits
- PP 3 · PSOE + Frente Amplio 157 %
- PP 2 · PSOE + Frente Amplio 215 %
- PSOE + Frente Amplio 3 · PP 114 %
- PP 3 · Vox 18 %
% vote: list estimate (mean and 95% interval), share of votes for lists. Columns 0, 1, 2…: probability (%) of each number of senators; Mean (95%): expected senators and 95% range.
Senators elected in 2023
| Senator | Party | Votes |
|---|---|---|
| Vicente Azpitarte Pérez | PP | 188,627 |
| Francisco Joaquín Camacho Borrego | PP | 184,219 |
| María Eva Martín Pérez | PP | 182,755 |
| José Entrena Ávila | PSOE | 168,819 |
2023 result
| Party | % | 2023 seats | With 2026 seats |
|---|---|---|---|
| PP | 37.0 | 3 | 3 |
| PSOE | 33.0 | 2 | 2 |
| Vox | 16.1 | 1 | 1 |
| Por Andalucía | 11.7 | 1 | 1 |
The last seat, 2026 forecast
| Holds it | Just short | |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | PP · 41 % | PP · 38 % |
| 2 | Vox · 35 % | PSOE · 33 % |
| 3 | PSOE · 22 % | Vox · 24 % |
| 4 | Por Andalucía · 1 % | Por Andalucía · 3 % |
Votes the challenger would need: median 20,265 (interquartile range 8,201–35,617), 3.79 % of valid votes. Across the 50,000 forecast simulations.
The last seat, 2008–2023
| Election | Won by | Runner-up | Transfer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2008 | PSOE | PP | 23,551 |
| 2011 | PP | PSOE | 25,960 |
| 2015 | PP | PSOE | 334 |
| 2016 | PP | PSOE | 10,639 |
| 2019A | PSOE | PP | 13,039 |
| 2019N | PP | VOX | 2,633 |
| 2023 | IU/UP/Sumar | PSOE | 2,460 |
Votes the runner-up would need to take from the winner to flip the seat.