3 seats · estimated turnout 77.1 % (2023: 72.5 %)
Guadalajara
Preliminary forecast updated 20 October 2026, from 50,000 simulations.
Estimated vote
PP34.3 %26.1–42.9
PSOE26.7 %19.6–34.6
Vox25.7 %18.6–33.8
Frente Amplio4.7 %2.0–9.3
Podemos2.7 %0.9–6.1
Se Acabó La Fiesta2.6 %0.9–5.7
Dot: mean; bar: 95% of simulations. Share of valid votes.
Seats
| Party | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 95 % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PP | 94 | 6 | 1 (1–2) | ||
| PSOE | 2 | 97 | 1 (1–1) | ||
| Vox | 4 | 96 | 1 (0–1) |
Probability (%) of each seat count. 95%: median and 95% range of simulations.
The closest seat
1.º seat for Vox: 96 %; challenger PP (6 %).
Senate
The Senate in Guadalajara
29N forecast
4 senators · joint PSOE + Frente Amplio list
| List | % vote | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | Mean (95%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PP | 34.7 26.5–43.4 | 5 | 22 | 19 | 55 | 2.2 (0–3) | |
| PSOE + Frente Amplio | 30.5 23.3–38.8 | 19 | 47 | 16 | 18 | 1.3 (0–3) | |
| Vox | 26.0 18.9–34.1 | 70 | 21 | 6 | 4 | 0.4 (0–3) | |
| Otros | 3.4 1.0–8.2 | >99 | 0.0 (0–0) | ||||
| Podemos | 2.7 0.9–6.2 | >99 | 0.0 (0–0) | ||||
| Se Acabó La Fiesta | 2.6 0.9–5.8 | >99 | 0.0 (0–0) |
Most likely splits
- PP 3 · PSOE + Frente Amplio 141 %
- PSOE + Frente Amplio 3 · PP 115 %
- PP 3 · Vox 113 %
- PP 2 · PSOE + Frente Amplio 213 %
% vote: list estimate (mean and 95% interval), share of votes for lists. Columns 0, 1, 2…: probability (%) of each number of senators; Mean (95%): expected senators and 95% range.
Senators elected in 2023
| Senator | Party | Votes |
|---|---|---|
| Lucas Castillo Rodríguez | PP | 52,910 |
| María Patricio Zafra | PP | 51,531 |
| María Montserrat Rivas de la Torre | PP | 50,376 |
| Araceli Martínez Esteban | PSOE | 47,313 |
2023 result
| Party | % | 2023 seats | With 2026 seats |
|---|---|---|---|
| PP | 36.3 | 1 | 1 |
| PSOE | 33.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Vox | 19.3 | 1 | 1 |
| Frente Amplio | 9.2 | – | – |
The last seat, 2026 forecast
| Holds it | Just short | |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vox · 51 % | PP · 76 % |
| 2 | PSOE · 40 % | PSOE · 13 % |
| 3 | PP · 9 % | Vox · 12 % |
| 4 | Frente Amplio · <1 % | Frente Amplio · <1 % |
Votes the challenger would need: median 19,997 (interquartile range 11,691–27,605), 12.90 % of valid votes. Across the 50,000 forecast simulations.
The last seat, 2008–2023
| Election | Won by | Runner-up | Transfer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2008 | PP | PSOE | 6,466 |
| 2011 | PP | PSOE | 17,387 |
| 2015 | Cs | IU/UP/Sumar | 389 |
| 2016 | PP | IU/UP/Sumar | 1,427 |
| 2019A | Cs | VOX | 1,659 |
| 2019N | PP | PSOE | 6,573 |
| 2023 | VOX | PP | 1,019 |
Votes the runner-up would need to take from the winner to flip the seat.