8 seats · estimated turnout 66.3 % (2023: 61.3 %)

Balears (Illes)

Preliminary forecast updated 20 October 2026, from 50,000 simulations.

Estimated vote

PP32.8 %24.7–41.6

PSOE25.9 %18.8–33.7

Vox22.2 %15.6–29.8

Ara MÉS-Front Ampli8.2 %3.6–15.5

Podemos5.5 %1.9–11.9

Se Acabó La Fiesta1.8 %0.7–4.1

Dot: mean; bar: 95% of simulations. Share of valid votes.

Seats

Party	0	1	2	3	4	95 %
PP			8	67	25	3 (2–4)
PSOE		2	59	38	1	2 (2–3)
Vox		10	79	11		2 (1–3)
Ara MÉS-Front Ampli	68	32				0 (0–1)
Podemos	92	8				0 (0–1)

Probability (%) of each seat count. 95%: median and 95% range of simulations.

The closest seat

3.º seat for PSOE: 39 %; challenger Ara MÉS-Front Ampli (33 %).

Senate

The Senate in Balears (Illes)

29N forecast

Mallorca · 3 senators

List	% vote	0	1	2	Mean (95%)
PP	34.0 25.7–42.9	2	45	54	1.5 (1–2)
PSOE + Frente Amplio	33.2 25.4–42.1	2	53	45	1.4 (1–2)
Vox	21.0 14.8–28.3	96	4		0.1 (0–1)
Podemos	5.6 2.0–12.1	>99			0.0 (0–0)
Otros	4.3 1.4–10.6	>99			0.0 (0–0)
Se Acabó La Fiesta	1.9 0.7–4.2	>99			0.0 (0–0)

Menorca · 1 senator

List	% vote	0	1	Mean (95%)
PSOE + Frente Amplio	40.3 31.5–49.9	29	71	0.7 (0–1)
PP	35.9 27.1–45.0	71	29	0.3 (0–1)
Vox	12.6 8.6–17.5	>99		0.0 (0–0)
Podemos	6.7 2.4–14.4	>99		0.0 (0–0)
Otros	2.5 0.6–5.3	>99		0.0 (0–0)
Se Acabó La Fiesta	1.9 0.7–4.4	>99		0.0 (0–0)

Eivissa · 1 senator

List	% vote	0	1	Mean (95%)
PP	39.0 30.1–48.2	21	79	0.8 (0–1)
PSOE + Frente Amplio	32.9 25.1–41.7	79	21	0.2 (0–1)
Vox	17.9 12.4–24.3	>99		0.0 (0–0)
Podemos	5.5 2.0–11.9	>99		0.0 (0–0)
Otros	2.9 0.8–6.6	>99		0.0 (0–0)
Se Acabó La Fiesta	1.9 0.7–4.3	>99		0.0 (0–0)

Formentera · 1 senator

List	% vote	0	1	Mean (95%)
PSOE + Frente Amplio	41.3 32.0–51.3	39	61	0.6 (0–1)
PP	38.8 29.7–48.2	61	39	0.4 (0–1)
Vox	11.0 7.4–15.4	>99		0.0 (0–0)
Podemos	6.5 2.3–14.0	>99		0.0 (0–0)
Se Acabó La Fiesta	2.0 0.7–4.4	>99		0.0 (0–0)

Mallorca: Most likely splits

PP 2 · PSOE + Frente Amplio 152 %
PSOE + Frente Amplio 2 · PP 143 %
PP 2 · Vox 12 %
PSOE + Frente Amplio 2 · Vox 11 %

Menorca: Most likely splits

PSOE + Frente Amplio 171 %
PP 129 %
Podemos 10 %

Eivissa: Most likely splits

PP 179 %
PSOE + Frente Amplio 121 %
Vox 10 %
Podemos 10 %

Formentera: Most likely splits

PSOE + Frente Amplio 161 %
PP 139 %
Podemos 10 %

% vote: list estimate (mean and 95% interval), share of votes for lists. Columns 0, 1, 2…: probability (%) of each number of senators; Mean (95%): expected senators and 95% range.

Senators elected in 2023

Senator	Party	Votes
María Salom Coll · Mallorca	PP	143,225
Martí Ángel Torres Valls · Mallorca	PP	135,984
Pere Joan Pons Sampietro · Mallorca	PSIB-PSOE	120,255
Juanjo Ferrer Martínez · Eivissa-Formentera	PSOE-SUMAR-EUIB-ARA EIVISSA	26,389
Cristóbal Marqués Palliser · Menorca	PP	16,222

2023 result

Party	%	2023 seats	With 2026 seats
PP	35.6	3	3
PSOE	30.2	3	3
Ara MÉS-Front Ampli	16.6	1	1
Vox	15.2	1	1

The last seat, 2026 forecast

	Holds it	Just short
1	PP · 35 %	PP · 33 %
2	PSOE · 28 %	PSOE · 30 %
3	Vox · 22 %	Vox · 22 %
4	Ara MÉS-Front Ampli · 12 %	Ara MÉS-Front Ampli · 12 %

Votes the challenger would need: median 10,517 (interquartile range 4,147–22,112), 1.92 % of valid votes. Across the 50,000 forecast simulations.

The last seat, 2008–2023

Election	Won by	Runner-up	Transfer
2008	PP	PSOE	22,603
2011	PSOE	PP	11,899
2015	PSOE	IU/UP/Sumar	8,530
2016	PSOE	PP	7,894
2019A	PSOE	Cs	476
2019N	VOX	PSOE	286
2023	PSOE	PP	9,891

Votes the runner-up would need to take from the winner to flip the seat.