5 seats · estimated turnout 76.1 % (2023: 72.1 %)
Jaén
Preliminary forecast updated 20 October 2026, from 50,000 simulations.
Estimated vote
PP35.0 %27.2–43.1
PSOE27.4 %20.5–34.9
Vox20.7 %14.9–27.2
Por Andalucía3.9 %1.7–7.7
Adelante Andalucía3.3 %1.4–6.4
Se Acabó La Fiesta2.4 %0.9–5.3
Podemos2.2 %0.7–4.9
Dot: mean; bar: 95% of simulations. Share of valid votes.
Seats
| Party | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 95 % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PP | 81 | 19 | 2 (2–3) | ||||
| PSOE | 25 | 75 | 2 (1–2) | ||||
| Vox | 93 | 6 | 1 (1–2) |
Probability (%) of each seat count. 95%: median and 95% range of simulations.
The closest seat
2.º seat for PSOE: 75 %; challenger PP (19 %).
Senate
The Senate in Jaén
29N forecast
4 senators · joint PSOE + Frente Amplio list
| List | % vote | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | Mean (95%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PP | 35.3 27.6–43.4 | 17 | 18 | 65 | 2.5 (1–3) | ||
| PSOE + Frente Amplio | 30.4 23.3–37.9 | 4 | 62 | 17 | 17 | 1.5 (0–3) | |
| Vox | 20.9 15.1–27.4 | 95 | 4 | 0.1 (0–1) | |||
| Otros | 5.6 1.9–14.2 | >99 | 0.0 (0–0) | ||||
| Adelante Andalucía | 3.3 1.4–6.5 | >99 | 0.0 (0–0) | ||||
| Se Acabó La Fiesta | 2.4 0.9–5.3 | >99 | 0.0 (0–0) | ||||
| Podemos | 2.2 0.7–4.9 | >99 | 0.0 (0–0) |
Most likely splits
- PP 3 · PSOE + Frente Amplio 161 %
- PP 2 · PSOE + Frente Amplio 217 %
- PSOE + Frente Amplio 3 · PP 117 %
- PP 3 · Vox 13 %
% vote: list estimate (mean and 95% interval), share of votes for lists. Columns 0, 1, 2…: probability (%) of each number of senators; Mean (95%): expected senators and 95% range.
Senators elected in 2023
| Senator | Party | Votes |
|---|---|---|
| Francisco Javier Márquez Sánchez | PP | 141,443 |
| Mariola Aranda García | PP | 138,351 |
| José Latorre Ruiz | PSOE | 133,826 |
| Francisco Javier Bermúdez Carrillo | PP | 133,344 |
2023 result
| Party | % | 2023 seats | With 2026 seats |
|---|---|---|---|
| PP | 37.3 | 2 | 2 |
| PSOE | 36.3 | 2 | 2 |
| Vox | 14.8 | 1 | 1 |
| Por Andalucía | 8.0 | – | – |
| JM+ | 2.3 | – | – |
The last seat, 2026 forecast
| Holds it | Just short | |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | PSOE · 63 % | PP · 52 % |
| 2 | PP · 28 % | PSOE · 26 % |
| 3 | Vox · 8 % | Vox · 22 % |
| 4 | Por Andalucía · <1 % | Por Andalucía · <1 % |
Votes the challenger would need: median 17,464 (interquartile range 7,738–30,675), 4.63 % of valid votes. Across the 50,000 forecast simulations.
The last seat, 2008–2023
| Election | Won by | Runner-up | Transfer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2008 | PSOE | PP | 12,103 |
| 2011 | PSOE | PP | 15,911 |
| 2015 | PSOE | IU/UP/Sumar | 648 |
| 2016 | IU/UP/Sumar | PSOE | 5,277 |
| 2019A | PSOE | VOX | 3,033 |
| 2019N | PSOE | PP | 7,462 |
| 2023 | VOX | PP | 6,396 |
Votes the runner-up would need to take from the winner to flip the seat.