4 seats · estimated turnout 76.8 % (2023: 70.2 %)
Rioja (La)
Preliminary forecast updated 20 October 2026, from 50,000 simulations.
Estimated vote
PP42.2 %32.8–51.7
PSOE28.8 %21.1–37.5
Vox16.2 %11.2–22.3
Frente Amplio4.1 %1.8–8.0
Podemos3.4 %1.1–7.5
Se Acabó La Fiesta1.8 %0.6–4.1
Dot: mean; bar: 95% of simulations. Share of valid votes.
Seats
| Party | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 95 % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PP | 2 | 79 | 19 | 2 (2–3) | ||
| PSOE | 75 | 25 | 1 (1–2) | |||
| Vox | 42 | 58 | 1 (0–1) |
Probability (%) of each seat count. 95%: median and 95% range of simulations.
The closest seat
1.º seat for Vox: 58 %; challenger PSOE (25 %).
Senate
The Senate in Rioja (La)
29N forecast
4 senators · joint PSOE + Frente Amplio list
| List | % vote | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | Mean (95%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PP | 42.8 33.5–52.2 | 8 | 10 | 82 | 2.7 (1–3) | ||
| PSOE + Frente Amplio | 32.1 24.2–40.8 | 81 | 10 | 8 | 1.3 (1–3) | ||
| Vox | 16.4 11.4–22.5 | >99 | 0.0 (0–0) | ||||
| Otros | 3.5 1.0–8.3 | >99 | 0.0 (0–0) | ||||
| Podemos | 3.4 1.2–7.6 | >99 | 0.0 (0–0) | ||||
| Se Acabó La Fiesta | 1.8 0.7–4.1 | >99 | 0.0 (0–0) |
Most likely splits
- PP 3 · PSOE + Frente Amplio 181 %
- PP 2 · PSOE + Frente Amplio 210 %
- PSOE + Frente Amplio 3 · PP 18 %
- PP 3 · Vox 10 %
% vote: list estimate (mean and 95% interval), share of votes for lists. Columns 0, 1, 2…: probability (%) of each number of senators; Mean (95%): expected senators and 95% range.
Senators elected in 2023
| Senator | Party | Votes |
|---|---|---|
| Luis Martínez Portillo Subero | PP | 79,729 |
| Carlos Yécora Roca | PP | 78,360 |
| María del Mar San Martín Ibarra | PP | 77,762 |
| Concepción Andreu Rodríguez | PSOE | 62,066 |
2023 result
| Party | % | 2023 seats | With 2026 seats |
|---|---|---|---|
| PP | 45.6 | 2 | 2 |
| PSOE | 35.7 | 2 | 2 |
| Vox | 9.8 | – | – |
| Frente Amplio | 6.6 | – | – |
The last seat, 2026 forecast
| Holds it | Just short | |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vox · 47 % | PSOE · 38 % |
| 2 | PP · 31 % | PP · 36 % |
| 3 | PSOE · 22 % | Vox · 26 % |
| 4 | Frente Amplio · <1 % | Frente Amplio · <1 % |
Votes the challenger would need: median 6,302 (interquartile range 2,541–13,278), 3.45 % of valid votes. Across the 50,000 forecast simulations.
The last seat, 2008–2023
| Election | Won by | Runner-up | Transfer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2008 | PSOE | PP | 11,978 |
| 2011 | PP | PSOE | 5,611 |
| 2015 | IU/UP/Sumar | Cs | 631 |
| 2016 | IU/UP/Sumar | PP | 3,152 |
| 2019A | PSOE | PP | 4,681 |
| 2019N | PP | PSOE | 10,876 |
| 2023 | PSOE | PP | 5,508 |
Votes the runner-up would need to take from the winner to flip the seat.