8 seats · estimated turnout 66.2 % (2023: 59.5 %)

Palmas (Las)

Preliminary forecast updated 20 October 2026, from 50,000 simulations.

Estimated vote

PSOE27.5 %20.2–35.6

PP27.0 %19.9–34.7

Vox22.3 %15.6–30.0

Unidad del Pueblo Canario12.9 %6.2–23.2

Coalición Canaria5.7 %2.7–10.6

Se Acabó La Fiesta1.9 %0.7–4.2

Dot: mean; bar: 95% of simulations. Share of valid votes.

Seats

Party	0	1	2	3	4	95 %
PSOE			47	50	2	3 (2–3)
PP			53	45	1	2 (2–3)
Vox		11	79	10		2 (1–3)
Unidad del Pueblo Canario	16	73	10			1 (0–2)
Coalición Canaria	95	5				0 (0–1)

Probability (%) of each seat count. 95%: median and 95% range of simulations.

The closest seat

3.º seat for PSOE: 52 %; challenger PP (46 %).

Senate

The Senate in Palmas (Las)

29N forecast

Gran Canaria · 3 senators

List	% vote	0	1	2	Mean (95%)
PP	31.2 23.4–39.5	2	28	71	1.7 (1–2)
PSOE	27.0 19.9–35.0	8	66	26	1.2 (0–2)
Vox	18.9 13.0–25.7	93	6		0.1 (0–1)
Unidad del Pueblo Canario	12.7 6.0–22.8	97	2		0.0 (0–1)
Coalición Canaria	6.6 3.2–12.2	>99			0.0 (0–0)
Se Acabó La Fiesta	1.9 0.7–4.3	>99			0.0 (0–0)
Otros	1.7 0.6–5.3	>99			0.0 (0–0)

Lanzarote · 1 senator

List	% vote	0	1	Mean (95%)
PSOE	30.5 22.4–39.0	23	77	0.8 (0–1)
PP	25.6 18.6–33.2	80	20	0.2 (0–1)
Vox	15.4 10.4–21.4	>99		0.0 (0–0)
Unidad del Pueblo Canario	14.3 6.9–25.4	98	2	0.0 (0–0)
Coalición Canaria	11.7 5.9–20.9	>99		0.0 (0–0)
Se Acabó La Fiesta	1.9 0.7–4.2	>99		0.0 (0–0)

Fuerteventura · 1 senator

List	% vote	0	1	Mean (95%)
PP	24.7 17.7–32.1	53	47	0.5 (0–1)
PSOE	24.0 17.0–31.5	62	38	0.4 (0–1)
Coalición Canaria	18.7 9.9–31.5	88	12	0.1 (0–1)
Vox	17.8 11.9–24.6	97	3	0.0 (0–1)
Unidad del Pueblo Canario	11.3 5.2–20.6	99	1	0.0 (0–0)
Se Acabó La Fiesta	1.9 0.7–4.3	>99		0.0 (0–0)
Otros	1.6 0.5–4.9	>99		0.0 (0–0)

Gran Canaria: Most likely splits

PP 2 · PSOE 165 %
PSOE 2 · PP 125 %
PP 2 · Vox 15 %
PP 2 · Unidad del Pueblo Canario 11 %

Lanzarote: Most likely splits

PSOE 177 %
PP 120 %
Unidad del Pueblo Canario 12 %
Coalición Canaria 11 %

Fuerteventura: Most likely splits

PP 147 %
PSOE 138 %
Coalición Canaria 112 %
Vox 13 %

% vote: list estimate (mean and 95% interval), share of votes for lists. Columns 0, 1, 2…: probability (%) of each number of senators; Mean (95%): expected senators and 95% range.

Senators elected in 2023

Senator	Party	Votes
Ramón Morales Quesada · Gran Canaria	PSOE	149,463
Marta Jorgina Saavedra Doménech · Gran Canaria	PSOE	143,368
Sergio Ramos Acosta · Gran Canaria	PP	124,098
Francisco Manuel Fajardo Palarea · Lanzarote	PSOE	21,618
Paloma Hernández Cerezo · Fuerteventura	PSOE	10,878

2023 result

Party	%	2023 seats	With 2026 seats
PSOE	33.2	3	3
PP	25.9	3	3
Vox	14.6	1	1
Unidad del Pueblo Canario	10.3	1	1
NCbc	8.0	–	–
Coalición Canaria	6.3	–	–

The last seat, 2026 forecast

	Holds it	Just short
1	PSOE · 32 %	PP · 32 %
2	PP · 30 %	PSOE · 31 %
3	Vox · 22 %	Vox · 22 %
4	Unidad del Pueblo Canario · 14 %	Unidad del Pueblo Canario · 13 %

Votes the challenger would need: median 11,040 (interquartile range 4,547–21,907), 1.92 % of valid votes. Across the 50,000 forecast simulations.

The last seat, 2008–2023

Election	Won by	Runner-up	Transfer
2008	PP	PSOE	15,900
2011	PP	PSOE	13,158
2015	PP	IU/UP/Sumar	4,395
2016	IU/UP/Sumar	PP	18,732
2019A	PP	Cs	2,150
2019N	PSOE	IU/UP/Sumar	11,643
2023	PP	PSOE	2,917

Votes the runner-up would need to take from the winner to flip the seat.