4 seats · estimated turnout 74.9 % (2023: 65.7 %)
León
Preliminary forecast updated 20 October 2026, from 50,000 simulations.
Estimated vote
PP38.4 %29.9–47.3
PSOE30.8 %23.1–39.2
Vox19.2 %13.5–25.9
Frente Amplio4.1 %1.8–8.1
Podemos2.8 %1.0–6.2
Se Acabó La Fiesta2.2 %0.8–4.8
Dot: mean; bar: 95% of simulations. Share of valid votes.
Seats
| Party | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 95 % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PP | 11 | 87 | 2 | 2 (1–2) | ||
| PSOE | 76 | 24 | 1 (1–2) | |||
| Vox | 16 | 84 | 1 (0–1) |
Probability (%) of each seat count. 95%: median and 95% range of simulations.
The closest seat
1.º seat for Vox: 84 %; challenger PSOE (24 %).
Senate
The Senate in León
29N forecast
4 senators · joint PSOE + Frente Amplio list
| List | % vote | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | Mean (95%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PP | 38.8 30.2–47.6 | 20 | 18 | 62 | 2.4 (1–3) | ||
| PSOE + Frente Amplio | 33.9 26.1–42.2 | 61 | 18 | 20 | 1.6 (1–3) | ||
| Vox | 19.3 13.6–26.1 | 99 | 1 | 0.0 (0–0) | |||
| Otros | 3.0 0.9–6.8 | >99 | 0.0 (0–0) | ||||
| Podemos | 2.8 1.0–6.3 | >99 | 0.0 (0–0) | ||||
| Se Acabó La Fiesta | 2.2 0.8–4.9 | >99 | 0.0 (0–0) |
Most likely splits
- PP 3 · PSOE + Frente Amplio 161 %
- PSOE + Frente Amplio 3 · PP 120 %
- PP 2 · PSOE + Frente Amplio 218 %
- PP 3 · Vox 11 %
% vote: list estimate (mean and 95% interval), share of votes for lists. Columns 0, 1, 2…: probability (%) of each number of senators; Mean (95%): expected senators and 95% range.
Senators elected in 2023
| Senator | Party | Votes |
|---|---|---|
| Antonio Silván Rodríguez | PP | 101,403 |
| María Asunción Mayo Fernández | PP | 99,272 |
| Jorge García Vega | PP | 97,396 |
| Salvador Vidal Varela | PSOE | 90,619 |
2023 result
| Party | % | 2023 seats | With 2026 seats |
|---|---|---|---|
| PP | 36.9 | 2 | 2 |
| PSOE | 33.6 | 2 | 2 |
| Vox | 12.9 | – | – |
| UPL | 8.2 | – | – |
| Frente Amplio | 6.8 | – | – |
The last seat, 2026 forecast
| Holds it | Just short | |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | PP · 43 % | PSOE · 60 % |
| 2 | Vox · 39 % | PP · 25 % |
| 3 | PSOE · 19 % | Vox · 15 % |
| 4 | Frente Amplio · <1 % | Frente Amplio · <1 % |
Votes the challenger would need: median 13,609 (interquartile range 5,626–24,644), 4.88 % of valid votes. Across the 50,000 forecast simulations.
The last seat, 2008–2023
| Election | Won by | Runner-up | Transfer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2008 | PSOE | PP | 11,227 |
| 2011 | PSOE | PP | 15,916 |
| 2015 | Cs | PSOE | 559 |
| 2016 | IU/UP/Sumar | PP | 8,933 |
| 2019A | PSOE | IU/UP/Sumar | 8,444 |
| 2019N | VOX | PP | 2,366 |
| 2023 | PSOE | VOX | 7,226 |
Votes the runner-up would need to take from the winner to flip the seat.