4 seats · estimated turnout 70.0 % (2023: 58.9 %)
Lleida
Preliminary forecast updated 20 October 2026, from 50,000 simulations.
Estimated vote
PSC28.2 %20.1–36.2
ERC19.7 %11.9–31.2
PP15.1 %10.1–20.6
Junts13.5 %7.3–22.7
Vox11.6 %7.5–16.2
Frente Amplio5.0 %2.1–9.7
Se Acabó La Fiesta1.5 %0.5–3.4
Dot: mean; bar: 95% of simulations. Share of valid votes.
Seats
| Party | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 95 % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PSC | 37 | 62 | 2 (1–2) | |||
| ERC | 7 | 85 | 7 | 1 (0–2) | ||
| PP | 26 | 74 | 1 (0–1) | |||
| Junts | 57 | 42 | 1 | 0 (0–1) | ||
| Vox | 85 | 15 | 0 (0–1) |
Probability (%) of each seat count. 95%: median and 95% range of simulations.
In Catalonia the PSOE runs as the PSC (same colour).
The closest seat
2.º seat for PSC: 63 %; challenger Junts (43 %).
Senate
The Senate in Lleida
29N forecast
4 senators
| List | % vote | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | Mean (95%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PSC | 28.7 20.7–36.6 | 10 | 8 | 81 | 2.7 (1–3) | ||
| ERC | 20.0 12.1–31.7 | 28 | 57 | 7 | 8 | 1.0 (0–3) | |
| PP | 15.3 10.3–20.8 | 82 | 17 | 0.2 (0–1) | |||
| Junts | 13.8 7.4–23.0 | 89 | 8 | 2 | 0.1 (0–1) | ||
| Vox | 11.8 7.7–16.4 | 99 | 1 | 0.0 (0–0) | |||
| Frente Amplio | 5.0 2.1–9.8 | >99 | 0.0 (0–0) | ||||
| Otros | 3.8 1.3–11.3 | >99 | 0.0 (0–0) | ||||
| Se Acabó La Fiesta | 1.5 0.5–3.4 | >99 | 0.0 (0–0) |
Most likely splits
- PSC 3 · ERC 156 %
- PSC 3 · PP 117 %
- ERC 3 · PSC 18 %
- PSC 3 · Junts 18 %
% vote: list estimate (mean and 95% interval), share of votes for lists. Columns 0, 1, 2…: probability (%) of each number of senators; Mean (95%): expected senators and 95% range.
Senators elected in 2023
| Senator | Party | Votes |
|---|---|---|
| Dionís Oña Martín | PSC | 48,601 |
| Pasión Gador Romero García | PSC | 45,632 |
| Jan Pomés López | PSC | 44,353 |
| Sara Bailac i Ardanuy | ERC-ESQUERRES PER LA INDEPENDÈNCIA | 43,919 |
2023 result
| Party | % | 2023 seats | With 2026 seats |
|---|---|---|---|
| PSC | 29.5 | 2 | 2 |
| ERC | 18.6 | 1 | 1 |
| Junts | 18.0 | 1 | 1 |
| PP | 12.8 | – | – |
| Frente Amplio | 7.9 | – | – |
| Vox | 6.8 | – | – |
| CUP-PR | 3.0 | – | – |
| PDeCAT-E-CiU | 1.0 | – | – |
The last seat, 2026 forecast
| Holds it | Just short | |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | PSC · 34 % | PSC · 27 % |
| 2 | PP · 26 % | Vox · 23 % |
| 3 | Junts · 17 % | Junts · 22 % |
| 4 | ERC · 12 % | PP · 16 % |
Votes the challenger would need: median 3,251 (interquartile range 1,428–6,262), 1.53 % of valid votes. Across the 50,000 forecast simulations.
The last seat, 2008–2023
| Election | Won by | Runner-up | Transfer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2008 | PP | CiU/Junts | 1,088 |
| 2011 | PP | CiU/Junts | 8,173 |
| 2015 | PSOE | CiU/Junts | 349 |
| 2016 | PP | ERC | 1,161 |
| 2019A | PSOE | ERC | 9,288 |
| 2019N | PSOE | CiU/Junts | 4,398 |
| 2023 | PSOE | PP | 2,339 |
Votes the runner-up would need to take from the winner to flip the seat.