4 seats · estimated turnout 73.7 % (2023: 59.4 %)
Lugo
Preliminary forecast updated 20 October 2026, from 50,000 simulations.
Estimated vote
PP44.9 %35.3–53.9
PSOE24.9 %17.9–32.6
BNG12.9 %6.7–22.5
Vox8.5 %5.7–12.0
Frente Amplio2.9 %1.2–5.8
Podemos2.2 %0.7–4.9
Se Acabó La Fiesta1.9 %0.7–4.2
Dot: mean; bar: 95% of simulations. Share of valid votes.
Seats
| Party | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 95 % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PP | 36 | 63 | 3 (2–3) | |||
| PSOE | 86 | 13 | 1 (1–2) | |||
| BNG | 77 | 23 | 0 (0–1) |
Probability (%) of each seat count. 95%: median and 95% range of simulations.
The closest seat
3.º seat for PP: 63 %; challenger BNG (23 %).
Senate
The Senate in Lugo
29N forecast
4 senators · joint PSOE + Frente Amplio list
| List | % vote | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | Mean (95%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PP | 45.3 35.7–54.3 | 2 | 3 | 96 | 2.9 (2–3) | ||
| PSOE + Frente Amplio | 27.0 19.8–34.8 | 3 | 94 | 2 | 1 | 1.0 (0–2) | |
| BNG | 13.0 6.8–22.7 | 98 | 2 | 0.0 (0–0) | |||
| Vox | 8.6 5.7–12.1 | >99 | 0.0 (0–0) | ||||
| Podemos | 2.2 0.7–5.0 | >99 | 0.0 (0–0) | ||||
| Otros | 2.0 0.5–4.4 | >99 | 0.0 (0–0) | ||||
| Se Acabó La Fiesta | 1.9 0.7–4.2 | >99 | 0.0 (0–0) |
Most likely splits
- PP 3 · PSOE + Frente Amplio 194 %
- PP 2 · PSOE + Frente Amplio 22 %
- PP 3 · BNG 12 %
- PSOE + Frente Amplio 3 · PP 11 %
% vote: list estimate (mean and 95% interval), share of votes for lists. Columns 0, 1, 2…: probability (%) of each number of senators; Mean (95%): expected senators and 95% range.
Senators elected in 2023
| Senator | Party | Votes |
|---|---|---|
| José Manuel Barreiro Fernández | PP | 95,897 |
| María José Gómez Rodríguez | PP | 94,187 |
| Juan Carlos Serrano López | PP | 92,419 |
| César Alejandro Mogo Zaro | PSdeG-PSOE | 58,773 |
2023 result
| Party | % | 2023 seats | With 2026 seats |
|---|---|---|---|
| PP | 50.2 | 3 | 3 |
| PSOE | 30.3 | 1 | 1 |
| BNG | 8.7 | – | – |
| Frente Amplio | 5.2 | – | – |
| Vox | 4.4 | – | – |
The last seat, 2026 forecast
| Holds it | Just short | |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | PP · 66 % | PSOE · 43 % |
| 2 | BNG · 18 % | BNG · 28 % |
| 3 | PSOE · 16 % | PP · 28 % |
| 4 | Vox · <1 % | Vox · 2 % |
Votes the challenger would need: median 7,653 (interquartile range 3,538–14,173), 3.89 % of valid votes. Across the 50,000 forecast simulations.
The last seat, 2008–2023
| Election | Won by | Runner-up | Transfer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2008 | PSOE | PP | 17,491 |
| 2011 | PP | PSOE | 11,755 |
| 2015 | IU/UP/Sumar | PP | 7,730 |
| 2016 | IU/UP/Sumar | PP | 1,685 |
| 2019A | PSOE | PP | 12,989 |
| 2019N | PSOE | PP | 7,111 |
| 2023 | PP | PSOE | 3,810 |
Votes the runner-up would need to take from the winner to flip the seat.