38 seats · estimated turnout 77.7 % (2023: 69.7 %)
Madrid
Preliminary forecast updated 20 October 2026, from 50,000 simulations.
Estimated vote
PP38.1 %30.1–46.4
PSOE23.5 %17.4–30.2
Vox21.7 %15.8–28.4
Frente Amplio8.3 %4.1–14.6
Podemos3.6 %1.4–7.5
Se Acabó La Fiesta1.5 %0.6–3.3
Dot: mean; bar: 95% of simulations. Share of valid votes.
Seats
| Party | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 95 % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PP | 2 | 6 | 14 | 22 | 23 | 18 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 16 (12–19) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| PSOE | 1 | 5 | 16 | 28 | 27 | 15 | 6 | 2 | 9 (7–12) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Vox | 3 | 13 | 27 | 30 | 18 | 7 | 2 | 9 (6–12) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Frente Amplio | 5 | 27 | 38 | 20 | 6 | 2 | 3 (1–6) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Podemos | 38 | 44 | 16 | 2 | 1 (0–3) |
Probability (%) of each seat count. 95%: median and 95% range of simulations.
The closest seat
16.º seat for PP: 56 %; challenger PSOE (49 %).
Senate
The Senate in Madrid
29N forecast
4 senators · joint PSOE + Frente Amplio list
| List | % vote | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | Mean (95%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PP | 38.5 30.6–46.8 | 11 | 14 | 75 | 2.6 (1–3) | ||
| PSOE + Frente Amplio | 31.0 24.0–38.7 | 5 | 71 | 14 | 11 | 1.3 (0–3) | |
| Vox | 22.0 16.1–28.7 | 94 | 5 | 0.1 (0–1) | |||
| Podemos | 3.7 1.4–7.5 | >99 | 0.0 (0–0) | ||||
| Otros | 3.3 1.0–7.8 | >99 | 0.0 (0–0) | ||||
| Se Acabó La Fiesta | 1.5 0.6–3.3 | >99 | 0.0 (0–0) |
Most likely splits
- PP 3 · PSOE + Frente Amplio 170 %
- PP 2 · PSOE + Frente Amplio 213 %
- PSOE + Frente Amplio 3 · PP 110 %
- PP 3 · Vox 14 %
% vote: list estimate (mean and 95% interval), share of votes for lists. Columns 0, 1, 2…: probability (%) of each number of senators; Mean (95%): expected senators and 95% range.
Senators elected in 2023
| Senator | Party | Votes |
|---|---|---|
| Pedro Rollán Ojeda | PP | 1,505,318 |
| Pío García-Escudero Márquez | PP | 1,468,969 |
| Paloma Martín Martín | PP | 1,453,394 |
| José Manuel Franco Pardo | PSOE | 1,063,568 |
2023 result
| Party | % | 2023 seats | With 2026 seats |
|---|---|---|---|
| PP | 40.6 | 16 | 16 |
| PSOE | 27.8 | 10 | 11 |
| Frente Amplio | 15.5 | 6 | 6 |
| Vox | 14.0 | 5 | 5 |
The last seat, 2026 forecast
| Holds it | Just short | |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | PP · 41 % | PP · 35 % |
| 2 | PSOE · 25 % | PSOE · 28 % |
| 3 | Vox · 23 % | Vox · 25 % |
| 4 | Frente Amplio · 9 % | Frente Amplio · 9 % |
Votes the challenger would need: median 20,877 (interquartile range 8,090–41,572), 0.53 % of valid votes. Across the 50,000 forecast simulations.
The last seat, 2008–2023
| Election | Won by | Runner-up | Transfer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2008 | PSOE | PP | 16,724 |
| 2011 | UPyD | PP | 2,844 |
| 2015 | PP | PSOE | 3,908 |
| 2016 | PP | Cs | 1,460 |
| 2019A | PSOE | PP | 26,104 |
| 2019N | PP | PSOE | 8,963 |
| 2023 | PP | PSOE | 794 |
Votes the runner-up would need to take from the winner to flip the seat.