11 seats · estimated turnout 71.0 % (2023: 64.4 %)
Málaga
Preliminary forecast updated 20 October 2026, from 50,000 simulations.
Estimated vote
PP34.7 %27.1–42.6
Vox23.3 %17.1–30.2
PSOE22.2 %16.4–28.6
Adelante Andalucía6.7 %3.0–12.8
Por Andalucía5.3 %2.3–10.2
Podemos2.0 %0.7–4.5
Se Acabó La Fiesta2.0 %0.7–4.3
Dot: mean; bar: 95% of simulations. Share of valid votes.
Seats
| Party | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 95 % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PP | 2 | 39 | 52 | 7 | 5 (4–6) | ||||||||
| Vox | 18 | 69 | 12 | 3 (2–4) | |||||||||
| PSOE | 27 | 66 | 7 | 3 (2–4) | |||||||||
| Adelante Andalucía | 59 | 39 | 2 | 0 (0–1) | |||||||||
| Por Andalucía | 82 | 17 | 0 (0–1) |
Probability (%) of each seat count. 95%: median and 95% range of simulations.
The closest seat
5.º seat for PP: 59 %; challenger Adelante Andalucía (41 %).
Senate
The Senate in Málaga
29N forecast
4 senators · joint PSOE + Frente Amplio list
| List | % vote | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | Mean (95%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PP | 35.2 27.7–43.0 | 9 | 13 | 78 | 2.7 (1–3) | ||
| PSOE + Frente Amplio | 26.8 20.5–34.1 | 25 | 59 | 9 | 7 | 1.0 (0–3) | |
| Vox | 23.6 17.4–30.5 | 71 | 24 | 3 | 2 | 0.4 (0–2) | |
| Adelante Andalucía | 6.8 3.1–13.0 | >99 | 0.0 (0–0) | ||||
| Otros | 3.6 1.1–8.8 | >99 | 0.0 (0–0) | ||||
| Podemos | 2.0 0.7–4.6 | >99 | 0.0 (0–0) | ||||
| Se Acabó La Fiesta | 2.0 0.7–4.4 | >99 | 0.0 (0–0) |
Most likely splits
- PP 3 · PSOE + Frente Amplio 156 %
- PP 3 · Vox 121 %
- PP 2 · PSOE + Frente Amplio 28 %
- PSOE + Frente Amplio 3 · PP 16 %
% vote: list estimate (mean and 95% interval), share of votes for lists. Columns 0, 1, 2…: probability (%) of each number of senators; Mean (95%): expected senators and 95% range.
Senators elected in 2023
| Senator | Party | Votes |
|---|---|---|
| José Alberto Armijo Navas | PP | 304,853 |
| Ángel Luis González Muñoz | PP | 292,062 |
| Lucía Yeves Leal | PP | 288,692 |
| Rafael Granados Ruiz | PSOE | 239,075 |
2023 result
| Party | % | 2023 seats | With 2026 seats |
|---|---|---|---|
| PP | 38.3 | 5 | 5 |
| PSOE | 30.3 | 3 | 3 |
| Vox | 16.5 | 2 | 2 |
| Por Andalucía | 12.3 | 1 | 1 |
| PACMA | 1.1 | – | – |
The last seat, 2026 forecast
| Holds it | Just short | |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | PP · 37 % | PP · 34 % |
| 2 | PSOE · 25 % | Vox · 25 % |
| 3 | Vox · 25 % | PSOE · 25 % |
| 4 | Adelante Andalucía · 9 % | Adelante Andalucía · 9 % |
Votes the challenger would need: median 11,535 (interquartile range 4,320–25,174), 1.34 % of valid votes. Across the 50,000 forecast simulations.
The last seat, 2008–2023
| Election | Won by | Runner-up | Transfer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2008 | PP | PSOE | 15,878 |
| 2011 | PP | PSOE | 6,554 |
| 2015 | PP | IU/UP/Sumar | 2,732 |
| 2016 | Cs | PP | 13,487 |
| 2019A | IU/UP/Sumar | VOX | 2,170 |
| 2019N | PP | VOX | 449 |
| 2023 | PP | PSOE | 1,349 |
Votes the runner-up would need to take from the winner to flip the seat.