1 seats · estimated turnout 58.3 % (2023: 45.2 %)
Melilla
Preliminary forecast updated 20 October 2026, from 50,000 simulations.
Estimated vote
PP41.8 %31.1–52.1
Vox23.6 %16.0–32.1
PSOE20.4 %14.1–27.7
Se Acabó La Fiesta2.4 %0.9–5.4
Frente Amplio2.0 %0.8–4.0
Podemos0.9 %0.3–2.0
Dot: mean; bar: 95% of simulations. Share of valid votes.
Seats
| Party | 0 | 1 | 95 % |
|---|---|---|---|
| PP | 1 | 99 | 1 (1–1) |
Probability (%) of each seat count. 95%: median and 95% range of simulations.
The closest seat
1.º seat for PP: 99 %; challenger Vox (1 %).
Senate
The Senate in Melilla
29N forecast
2 senators · joint PSOE + Frente Amplio list
| List | % vote | 0 | 1 | 2 | Mean (95%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PP | 42.3 31.9–52.5 | 3 | 96 | 2.0 (1–2) | |
| Vox | 23.9 16.4–32.3 | 97 | 2 | 0.0 (0–1) | |
| PSOE + Frente Amplio | 21.8 15.4–29.1 | >99 | 0.0 (0–0) | ||
| Otros | 8.7 3.2–22.9 | >99 | 0.0 (0–0) | ||
| Se Acabó La Fiesta | 2.4 0.9–5.5 | >99 | 0.0 (0–0) |
Most likely splits
- PP 296 %
- PP 1 · Vox 12 %
- PP 1 · PSOE + Frente Amplio 11 %
- Vox 21 %
% vote: list estimate (mean and 95% interval), share of votes for lists. Columns 0, 1, 2…: probability (%) of each number of senators; Mean (95%): expected senators and 95% range.
Senators elected in 2023
| Senator | Party | Votes |
|---|---|---|
| Fernando Adolfo Gutiérrez Díaz de Otazu | PP | 13,501 |
| Isabel María Moreno Mohamed | PP | 12,961 |
2023 result
| Party | % | 2023 seats | With 2026 seats |
|---|---|---|---|
| PP | 49.2 | 1 | 1 |
| PSOE | 25.4 | – | – |
| Vox | 15.9 | – | – |
| CpM | 4.8 | – | – |
| Frente Amplio | 3.0 | – | – |
The last seat, 2026 forecast
| Holds it | Just short | |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | PP · 99 % | Vox · 72 % |
| 2 | Vox · 1 % | PSOE · 27 % |
| 3 | PSOE · <1 % | PP · 1 % |
Votes the challenger would need: median 5,750 (interquartile range 4,207–7,312), 17.43 % of valid votes. Across the 50,000 forecast simulations.
The last seat, 2008–2023
| Election | Won by | Runner-up | Transfer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2008 | PP | PSOE | 149 |
| 2011 | PP | PSOE | 5,532 |
| 2015 | PP | PSOE | 2,714 |
| 2016 | PP | PSOE | 3,359 |
| 2019A | PP | PSOE | 549 |
| 2019N | PP | CpM | 91 |
| 2023 | PP | PSOE | 3,252 |
Votes the runner-up would need to take from the winner to flip the seat.