10 seats · estimated turnout 74.1 % (2023: 68.7 %)
Murcia
Preliminary forecast updated 20 October 2026, from 50,000 simulations.
Estimated vote
PP37.8 %29.0–46.7
Vox28.8 %21.0–37.6
PSOE20.6 %14.7–27.4
Frente Amplio5.1 %2.2–9.9
Podemos2.6 %0.9–5.8
Se Acabó La Fiesta2.0 %0.7–4.5
Dot: mean; bar: 95% of simulations. Share of valid votes.
Seats
| Party | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 95 % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PP | 5 | 49 | 43 | 3 | 4 (3–6) | |||||||
| Vox | 7 | 61 | 31 | 2 | 3 (2–4) | |||||||
| PSOE | 4 | 75 | 21 | 2 (1–3) | ||||||||
| Frente Amplio | 91 | 9 | 0 (0–1) |
Probability (%) of each seat count. 95%: median and 95% range of simulations.
The closest seat
5.º seat for PP: 46 %; challenger Vox (33 %).
Senate
The Senate in Murcia
29N forecast
4 senators · joint PSOE + Frente Amplio list
| List | % vote | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | Mean (95%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PP | 38.1 29.4–47.1 | 1 | 10 | 12 | 76 | 2.6 (1–3) | |
| Vox | 29.1 21.3–37.8 | 23 | 58 | 10 | 9 | 1.0 (0–3) | |
| PSOE + Frente Amplio | 24.9 18.5–32.3 | 73 | 23 | 3 | 1 | 0.3 (0–2) | |
| Otros | 3.2 1.0–7.8 | >99 | 0.0 (0–0) | ||||
| Podemos | 2.6 0.9–5.9 | >99 | 0.0 (0–0) | ||||
| Se Acabó La Fiesta | 2.0 0.7–4.5 | >99 | 0.0 (0–0) |
Most likely splits
- PP 3 · Vox 156 %
- PP 3 · PSOE + Frente Amplio 120 %
- PP 2 · Vox 29 %
- Vox 3 · PP 18 %
% vote: list estimate (mean and 95% interval), share of votes for lists. Columns 0, 1, 2…: probability (%) of each number of senators; Mean (95%): expected senators and 95% range.
Senators elected in 2023
| Senator | Party | Votes |
|---|---|---|
| Francisco Martín Bernabé Pérez | PP | 303,628 |
| Antonio Luengo Zapata | PP | 295,678 |
| Antonia López Moya | PP | 292,705 |
| Inmaculada Sánchez Roca | PSOE | 199,680 |
2023 result
| Party | % | 2023 seats | With 2026 seats |
|---|---|---|---|
| PP | 41.2 | 4 | 4 |
| PSOE | 25.3 | 3 | 3 |
| Vox | 21.8 | 2 | 2 |
| Frente Amplio | 9.6 | 1 | 1 |
The last seat, 2026 forecast
| Holds it | Just short | |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | PP · 44 % | PP · 37 % |
| 2 | Vox · 33 % | Vox · 35 % |
| 3 | PSOE · 20 % | PSOE · 24 % |
| 4 | Frente Amplio · 3 % | Frente Amplio · 4 % |
Votes the challenger would need: median 18,018 (interquartile range 7,470–33,817), 2.22 % of valid votes. Across the 50,000 forecast simulations.
The last seat, 2008–2023
| Election | Won by | Runner-up | Transfer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2008 | PP | PSOE | 10,434 |
| 2011 | PP | PSOE | 16,524 |
| 2015 | PP | IU/UP/Sumar | 4,984 |
| 2016 | Cs | PP | 694 |
| 2019A | PSOE | PP | 5,189 |
| 2019N | PSOE | Cs | 4,388 |
| 2023 | PSOE | PP | 2,767 |
Votes the runner-up would need to take from the winner to flip the seat.