4 seats · estimated turnout 73.3 % (2023: 52.9 %)
Ourense
Preliminary forecast updated 20 October 2026, from 50,000 simulations.
Estimated vote
PP43.9 %34.5–52.8
PSOE24.3 %17.5–31.8
BNG13.0 %6.8–22.8
Vox9.2 %6.1–12.9
Frente Amplio3.4 %1.5–6.6
Podemos2.5 %0.8–5.6
Se Acabó La Fiesta1.8 %0.7–4.1
Dot: mean; bar: 95% of simulations. Share of valid votes.
Seats
| Party | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 95 % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PP | 39 | 60 | 3 (2–3) | |||
| PSOE | 87 | 13 | 1 (1–2) | |||
| BNG | 74 | 26 | 0 (0–1) |
Probability (%) of each seat count. 95%: median and 95% range of simulations.
The closest seat
3.º seat for PP: 60 %; challenger BNG (27 %).
Senate
The Senate in Ourense
29N forecast
4 senators · joint PSOE + Frente Amplio list
| List | % vote | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | Mean (95%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PP | 44.3 34.9–53.1 | 2 | 3 | 96 | 2.9 (2–3) | ||
| PSOE + Frente Amplio | 26.9 19.8–34.6 | 3 | 94 | 3 | 1 | 1.0 (0–2) | |
| BNG | 13.1 6.8–22.9 | 97 | 2 | 0.0 (0–1) | |||
| Vox | 9.3 6.2–13.0 | >99 | 0.0 (0–0) | ||||
| Podemos | 2.5 0.8–5.6 | >99 | 0.0 (0–0) | ||||
| Otros | 2.2 0.6–4.9 | >99 | 0.0 (0–0) | ||||
| Se Acabó La Fiesta | 1.8 0.7–4.1 | >99 | 0.0 (0–0) |
Most likely splits
- PP 3 · PSOE + Frente Amplio 194 %
- PP 2 · PSOE + Frente Amplio 23 %
- PP 3 · BNG 12 %
- PSOE + Frente Amplio 3 · PP 11 %
% vote: list estimate (mean and 95% interval), share of votes for lists. Columns 0, 1, 2…: probability (%) of each number of senators; Mean (95%): expected senators and 95% range.
Senators elected in 2023
| Senator | Party | Votes |
|---|---|---|
| María del Carmen Leyte Coello | PP | 88,910 |
| Luis Menor Pérez | PP | 87,593 |
| Rosa María Sánchez Gándara | PP | 85,657 |
| Rafael Rodríguez Villarino | PSdeG-PSOE | 52,444 |
2023 result
| Party | % | 2023 seats | With 2026 seats |
|---|---|---|---|
| PP | 50.0 | 3 | 3 |
| PSOE | 30.1 | 1 | 1 |
| BNG | 8.2 | – | – |
| Frente Amplio | 5.5 | – | – |
| Vox | 4.9 | – | – |
The last seat, 2026 forecast
| Holds it | Just short | |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | PP · 63 % | PSOE · 38 % |
| 2 | BNG · 21 % | PP · 29 % |
| 3 | PSOE · 15 % | BNG · 28 % |
| 4 | Vox · <1 % | Vox · 4 % |
Votes the challenger would need: median 6,795 (interquartile range 3,105–12,898), 3.63 % of valid votes. Across the 50,000 forecast simulations.
The last seat, 2008–2023
| Election | Won by | Runner-up | Transfer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2008 | PSOE | PP | 10,816 |
| 2011 | PP | PSOE | 11,915 |
| 2015 | IU/UP/Sumar | PP | 4,100 |
| 2016 | PP | IU/UP/Sumar | 1,283 |
| 2019A | PSOE | PP | 11,175 |
| 2019N | PSOE | PP | 7,129 |
| 2023 | PP | PSOE | 3,652 |
Votes the runner-up would need to take from the winner to flip the seat.