3 seats · estimated turnout 77.3 % (2023: 71.3 %)
Palencia
Preliminary forecast updated 20 October 2026, from 50,000 simulations.
Estimated vote
PP39.3 %30.0–48.6
PSOE27.9 %20.3–36.3
Vox18.3 %12.7–24.9
Frente Amplio3.3 %1.4–6.6
Se Acabó La Fiesta2.4 %0.9–5.4
Podemos2.4 %0.8–5.5
Dot: mean; bar: 95% of simulations. Share of valid votes.
Seats
| Party | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 95 % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PP | 37 | 63 | 2 (1–2) | ||
| PSOE | 1 | 96 | 3 | 1 (1–1) | |
| Vox | 64 | 36 | 0 (0–1) |
Probability (%) of each seat count. 95%: median and 95% range of simulations.
The closest seat
2.º seat for PP: 63 %; challenger Vox (36 %).
Senate
The Senate in Palencia
29N forecast
4 senators · joint PSOE + Frente Amplio list
| List | % vote | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | Mean (95%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PP | 39.7 30.7–49.0 | 9 | 11 | 80 | 2.7 (1–3) | ||
| PSOE + Frente Amplio | 30.4 22.8–38.7 | 2 | 79 | 11 | 8 | 1.3 (1–3) | |
| Vox | 18.5 12.9–25.1 | 98 | 2 | 0.0 (0–0) | |||
| Otros | 6.4 2.2–16.6 | >99 | 0.0 (0–0) | ||||
| Se Acabó La Fiesta | 2.5 0.9–5.5 | >99 | 0.0 (0–0) | ||||
| Podemos | 2.4 0.8–5.6 | >99 | 0.0 (0–0) |
Most likely splits
- PP 3 · PSOE + Frente Amplio 179 %
- PP 2 · PSOE + Frente Amplio 211 %
- PSOE + Frente Amplio 3 · PP 18 %
- PP 3 · Vox 12 %
% vote: list estimate (mean and 95% interval), share of votes for lists. Columns 0, 1, 2…: probability (%) of each number of senators; Mean (95%): expected senators and 95% range.
Senators elected in 2023
| Senator | Party | Votes |
|---|---|---|
| Jorge Domingo Martínez Antolín | PP | 40,929 |
| Carlos Alfonso Polanco Rebolleda | PP | 39,469 |
| María José Ortega Gómez | PP | 39,366 |
| Rosa María Aldea Gómez | PSOE | 34,903 |
2023 result
| Party | % | 2023 seats | With 2026 seats |
|---|---|---|---|
| PP | 42.0 | 2 | 2 |
| PSOE | 34.7 | 1 | 1 |
| Vox | 12.9 | – | – |
| Frente Amplio | 6.1 | – | – |
| VP | 2.0 | – | – |
The last seat, 2026 forecast
| Holds it | Just short | |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | PP · 58 % | Vox · 52 % |
| 2 | Vox · 33 % | PP · 34 % |
| 3 | PSOE · 9 % | PSOE · 14 % |
| 4 | Frente Amplio · <1 % | Frente Amplio · <1 % |
Votes the challenger would need: median 3,485 (interquartile range 1,630–6,245), 3.51 % of valid votes. Across the 50,000 forecast simulations.
The last seat, 2008–2023
| Election | Won by | Runner-up | Transfer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2008 | PP | PSOE | 3,612 |
| 2011 | PP | PSOE | 12,716 |
| 2015 | PP | Cs | 4,185 |
| 2016 | PP | IU/UP/Sumar | 5,271 |
| 2019A | Cs | PSOE | 159 |
| 2019N | PP | PSOE | 1,174 |
| 2023 | PP | PSOE | 3,549 |
Votes the runner-up would need to take from the winner to flip the seat.