7 seats · estimated turnout 74.9 % (2023: 63.7 %)
Pontevedra
Preliminary forecast updated 20 October 2026, from 50,000 simulations.
Estimated vote
PP36.3 %27.5–44.8
PSOE25.3 %18.2–33.0
BNG14.8 %7.9–25.7
Vox9.3 %6.2–13.2
Frente Amplio6.7 %2.9–12.8
Podemos3.9 %1.3–8.6
Se Acabó La Fiesta1.4 %0.5–3.1
Dot: mean; bar: 95% of simulations. Share of valid votes.
Seats
| Party | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 95 % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PP | 5 | 63 | 31 | 3 (2–4) | |||||
| PSOE | 5 | 77 | 18 | 2 (1–3) | |||||
| BNG | 8 | 80 | 11 | 1 | 1 (0–2) | ||||
| Vox | 60 | 40 | 0 (0–1) | ||||||
| Frente Amplio | 89 | 11 | 0 (0–1) |
Probability (%) of each seat count. 95%: median and 95% range of simulations.
The closest seat
1.º seat for Vox: 40 %; challenger PP (32 %).
Senate
The Senate in Pontevedra
29N forecast
4 senators · joint PSOE + Frente Amplio list
| List | % vote | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | Mean (95%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PP | 36.6 27.9–45.2 | 18 | 17 | 66 | 2.5 (1–3) | ||
| PSOE + Frente Amplio | 31.1 23.2–39.6 | 2 | 65 | 16 | 17 | 1.5 (1–3) | |
| BNG | 14.9 7.9–25.9 | 97 | 1 | 0.0 (0–1) | |||
| Vox | 9.4 6.2–13.3 | >99 | 0.0 (0–0) | ||||
| Podemos | 3.9 1.3–8.6 | >99 | 0.0 (0–0) | ||||
| Otros | 2.5 0.7–5.6 | >99 | 0.0 (0–0) | ||||
| Se Acabó La Fiesta | 1.4 0.5–3.1 | >99 | 0.0 (0–0) |
Most likely splits
- PP 3 · PSOE + Frente Amplio 165 %
- PSOE + Frente Amplio 3 · PP 117 %
- PP 2 · PSOE + Frente Amplio 216 %
- PP 3 · BNG 11 %
% vote: list estimate (mean and 95% interval), share of votes for lists. Columns 0, 1, 2…: probability (%) of each number of senators; Mean (95%): expected senators and 95% range.
Senators elected in 2023
| Senator | Party | Votes |
|---|---|---|
| María José Pardo Pumar «Pepa» | PP | 220,415 |
| José Crespo Iglesias | PP | 215,311 |
| Nidia María Arévalo Gómez | PP | 212,456 |
| María del Carmen Silva Rego «Carmela» | PSdeG-PSOE | 186,980 |
2023 result
| Party | % | 2023 seats | With 2026 seats |
|---|---|---|---|
| PP | 39.7 | 3 | 3 |
| PSOE | 31.4 | 3 | 3 |
| Frente Amplio | 13.2 | 1 | 1 |
| BNG | 9.4 | – | – |
| Vox | 4.8 | – | – |
The last seat, 2026 forecast
| Holds it | Just short | |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | PP · 37 % | PP · 33 % |
| 2 | Vox · 24 % | PSOE · 26 % |
| 3 | PSOE · 22 % | Vox · 22 % |
| 4 | BNG · 13 % | BNG · 12 % |
Votes the challenger would need: median 9,371 (interquartile range 3,727–22,033), 1.60 % of valid votes. Across the 50,000 forecast simulations.
The last seat, 2008–2023
| Election | Won by | Runner-up | Transfer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2008 | BNG | PP | 2,899 |
| 2011 | BNG | PP | 8,676 |
| 2015 | PSOE | IU/UP/Sumar | 7,538 |
| 2016 | PSOE | PP | 9,571 |
| 2019A | PSOE | IU/UP/Sumar | 13,986 |
| 2019N | PP | PSOE | 15,531 |
| 2023 | PSOE | PP | 5,140 |
Votes the runner-up would need to take from the winner to flip the seat.