4 seats · estimated turnout 76.1 % (2023: 67.0 %)
Salamanca
Preliminary forecast updated 20 October 2026, from 50,000 simulations.
Estimated vote
PP42.6 %33.5–51.8
PSOE24.7 %18.0–32.1
Vox20.8 %14.7–27.8
Frente Amplio3.6 %1.5–7.0
Podemos2.5 %0.8–5.7
Se Acabó La Fiesta2.3 %0.8–5.1
Dot: mean; bar: 95% of simulations. Share of valid votes.
Seats
| Party | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 95 % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PP | 94 | 6 | 2 (2–3) | |||
| PSOE | 98 | 2 | 1 (1–1) | |||
| Vox | 6 | 94 | 1 (0–1) |
Probability (%) of each seat count. 95%: median and 95% range of simulations.
The closest seat
1.º seat for Vox: 94 %; challenger PP (6 %).
Senate
The Senate in Salamanca
29N forecast
4 senators · joint PSOE + Frente Amplio list
| List | % vote | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | Mean (95%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PP | 43.1 34.1–52.2 | 2 | 4 | 94 | 2.9 (2–3) | ||
| PSOE + Frente Amplio | 27.5 20.6–35.1 | 11 | 83 | 4 | 2 | 1.0 (0–2) | |
| Vox | 21.0 14.9–28.1 | 88 | 11 | 0.1 (0–1) | |||
| Otros | 3.5 1.1–8.7 | >99 | 0.0 (0–0) | ||||
| Podemos | 2.5 0.9–5.8 | >99 | 0.0 (0–0) | ||||
| Se Acabó La Fiesta | 2.3 0.9–5.2 | >99 | 0.0 (0–0) |
Most likely splits
- PP 3 · PSOE + Frente Amplio 183 %
- PP 3 · Vox 111 %
- PP 2 · PSOE + Frente Amplio 24 %
- PSOE + Frente Amplio 3 · PP 12 %
% vote: list estimate (mean and 95% interval), share of votes for lists. Columns 0, 1, 2…: probability (%) of each number of senators; Mean (95%): expected senators and 95% range.
Senators elected in 2023
| Senator | Party | Votes |
|---|---|---|
| Bienvenido De Arriba Sánchez | PP | 93,848 |
| Gonzalo Jesús Robles Orozco | PP | 91,723 |
| Esther Basilia Del Brío González | PP | 91,148 |
| Elena Diego Castellanos | PSOE | 59,967 |
2023 result
| Party | % | 2023 seats | With 2026 seats |
|---|---|---|---|
| PP | 46.9 | 3 | 3 |
| PSOE | 30.5 | 1 | 1 |
| Vox | 14.7 | – | – |
| Frente Amplio | 5.5 | – | – |
The last seat, 2026 forecast
| Holds it | Just short | |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vox · 45 % | PP · 49 % |
| 2 | PP · 43 % | PSOE · 35 % |
| 3 | PSOE · 12 % | Vox · 16 % |
| 4 | Frente Amplio · <1 % | Frente Amplio · <1 % |
Votes the challenger would need: median 24,100 (interquartile range 14,281–32,688), 11.78 % of valid votes. Across the 50,000 forecast simulations.
The last seat, 2008–2023
| Election | Won by | Runner-up | Transfer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2008 | PSOE | PP | 5,833 |
| 2011 | PP | PSOE | 17,757 |
| 2015 | Cs | PP | 4,088 |
| 2016 | PP | Cs | 510 |
| 2019A | PP | PSOE | 412 |
| 2019N | PP | PSOE | 5,117 |
| 2023 | PP | PSOE | 897 |
Votes the runner-up would need to take from the winner to flip the seat.