7 seats · estimated turnout 67.5 % (2023: 56.8 %)
Santa Cruz de Tenerife
Preliminary forecast updated 20 October 2026, from 50,000 simulations.
Estimated vote
PP37.9 %27.9–47.8
PSOE30.1 %21.4–39.2
Coalición Canaria15.7 %8.3–27.0
Unidad del Pueblo Canario9.6 %4.3–17.7
Se Acabó La Fiesta2.0 %0.7–4.5
Dot: mean; bar: 95% of simulations. Share of valid votes.
Seats
| Party | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 95 % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PP | 8 | 66 | 25 | 3 (2–4) | |||||
| PSOE | 2 | 56 | 41 | 1 | 2 (2–3) | ||||
| Coalición Canaria | 8 | 80 | 11 | 1 (0–2) | |||||
| Unidad del Pueblo Canario | 66 | 33 | 0 (0–1) |
Probability (%) of each seat count. 95%: median and 95% range of simulations.
The closest seat
3.º seat for PSOE: 42 %; challenger Unidad del Pueblo Canario (34 %).
Senate
The Senate in Santa Cruz de Tenerife
29N forecast
Tenerife · 3 senators
| List | % vote | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | Mean (95%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PP | 34.5 25.3–43.9 | 1 | 45 | 54 | 1.5 (1–2) | |
| PSOE | 33.5 24.2–43.0 | 2 | 54 | 44 | 1.4 (1–2) | |
| Coalición Canaria | 15.6 8.3–26.9 | 97 | 2 | 1 | 0.0 (0–1) | |
| Unidad del Pueblo Canario | 10.6 4.8–19.4 | >99 | 0.0 (0–0) | |||
| Otros | 3.5 1.1–10.6 | >99 | 0.0 (0–0) | |||
| Se Acabó La Fiesta | 2.3 0.8–5.1 | >99 | 0.0 (0–0) |
La Palma · 1 senator
| List | % vote | 0 | 1 | Mean (95%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PP | 34.8 24.7–44.7 | 24 | 76 | 0.8 (0–1) |
| PSOE | 26.4 18.1–35.1 | 92 | 8 | 0.1 (0–1) |
| Coalición Canaria | 26.3 14.9–41.8 | 84 | 16 | 0.2 (0–1) |
| Unidad del Pueblo Canario | 8.4 3.7–15.6 | >99 | 0.0 (0–0) | |
| Se Acabó La Fiesta | 2.2 0.8–4.9 | >99 | 0.0 (0–0) | |
| Otros | 2.0 0.6–6.3 | >99 | 0.0 (0–0) |
La Gomera · 1 senator
| List | % vote | 0 | 1 | Mean (95%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Otros | 43.4 24.1–75.8 | 45 | 55 | 0.5 (0–1) |
| PSOE + Frente Amplio | 27.6 11.3–41.7 | 57 | 43 | 0.4 (0–1) |
| PP | 19.4 7.9–30.2 | 98 | 2 | 0.0 (0–0) |
| Coalición Canaria | 7.5 2.6–15.0 | >99 | 0.0 (0–0) | |
| Se Acabó La Fiesta | 2.2 0.6–5.3 | >99 | 0.0 (0–0) |
El Hierro · 1 senator
| List | % vote | 0 | 1 | Mean (95%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Otros | 40.2 20.8–73.4 | 45 | 55 | 0.6 (0–1) |
| PP | 19.4 8.2–30.1 | 76 | 24 | 0.2 (0–1) |
| PSOE | 18.4 7.7–28.8 | 84 | 16 | 0.2 (0–1) |
| Coalición Canaria | 14.2 5.3–27.0 | 95 | 5 | 0.0 (0–1) |
| Unidad del Pueblo Canario | 5.9 1.8–12.6 | >99 | 0.0 (0–0) | |
| Se Acabó La Fiesta | 1.8 0.5–4.5 | >99 | 0.0 (0–0) |
Tenerife: Most likely splits
- PP 2 · PSOE 153 %
- PSOE 2 · PP 143 %
- PP 2 · Coalición Canaria 11 %
- Coalición Canaria 2 · PP 11 %
La Palma: Most likely splits
- PP 176 %
- Coalición Canaria 116 %
- PSOE 18 %
- Unidad del Pueblo Canario 10 %
La Gomera: Most likely splits
- Otros 155 %
- PSOE + Frente Amplio 143 %
- PP 12 %
- Coalición Canaria 10 %
El Hierro: Most likely splits
- Otros 155 %
- PP 124 %
- PSOE 116 %
- Coalición Canaria 15 %
% vote: list estimate (mean and 95% interval), share of votes for lists. Columns 0, 1, 2…: probability (%) of each number of senators; Mean (95%): expected senators and 95% range.
Senators elected in 2023
| Senator | Party | Votes |
|---|---|---|
| Pedro Manuel Martín Domínguez · Tenerife | PSOE | 147,040 |
| Marta Arocha Correa · Tenerife | PSOE | 138,640 |
| Emilio José Navarro Castanedo · Tenerife | PP | 122,111 |
| Kilian Sánchez San Juan · La Palma | PSOE | 12,912 |
| Fabián Chinea Correa · La Gomera | ASG | 3,996 |
| Aniceto Javier Armas González · El Hierro | A.H.I. | 2,189 |
2023 result
| Party | % | 2023 seats | With 2026 seats |
|---|---|---|---|
| PP | 35.4 | 3 | 3 |
| PSOE | 33.5 | 3 | 3 |
| Coalición Canaria | 16.8 | 1 | 1 |
| Unidad del Pueblo Canario | 10.9 | – | – |
| PACMA | 1.2 | – | – |
The last seat, 2026 forecast
| Holds it | Just short | |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | PP · 40 % | PP · 36 % |
| 2 | PSOE · 33 % | PSOE · 36 % |
| 3 | Coalición Canaria · 14 % | Unidad del Pueblo Canario · 14 % |
| 4 | Unidad del Pueblo Canario · 14 % | Coalición Canaria · 14 % |
Votes the challenger would need: median 13,656 (interquartile range 5,298–29,060), 2.54 % of valid votes. Across the 50,000 forecast simulations.
The last seat, 2008–2023
| Election | Won by | Runner-up | Transfer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2008 | PSOE | PP | 15,561 |
| 2011 | PP | CC | 8,040 |
| 2015 | Cs | IU/UP/Sumar | 1,860 |
| 2016 | Cs | PSOE | 1,344 |
| 2019A | CC | PSOE | 5,234 |
| 2019N | PP | PSOE | 3,054 |
| 2023 | PSOE | IU/UP/Sumar | 1,174 |
Votes the runner-up would need to take from the winner to flip the seat.