3 seats · estimated turnout 79.1 % (2023: 75.3 %)
Segovia
Preliminary forecast updated 20 October 2026, from 50,000 simulations.
Estimated vote
PP41.4 %32.5–50.5
PSOE25.7 %18.8–33.4
Vox19.7 %13.9–26.6
Frente Amplio4.1 %1.8–8.2
Podemos3.0 %1.0–6.9
Se Acabó La Fiesta2.7 %1.0–5.9
Dot: mean; bar: 95% of simulations. Share of valid votes.
Seats
| Party | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 95 % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PP | 38 | 62 | 2 (1–2) | ||
| PSOE | 6 | 94 | 1 (0–1) | ||
| Vox | 57 | 43 | 0 (0–1) |
Probability (%) of each seat count. 95%: median and 95% range of simulations.
The closest seat
2.º seat for PP: 62 %; challenger Vox (43 %).
Senate
The Senate in Segovia
29N forecast
4 senators · joint PSOE + Frente Amplio list
| List | % vote | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | Mean (95%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PP | 42.0 33.2–51.1 | 4 | 7 | 89 | 2.8 (1–3) | ||
| PSOE + Frente Amplio | 29.1 22.0–37.1 | 5 | 85 | 7 | 4 | 1.1 (0–3) | |
| Vox | 20.0 14.1–26.9 | 95 | 5 | 0.1 (0–1) | |||
| Podemos | 3.1 1.0–7.0 | >99 | 0.0 (0–0) | ||||
| Otros | 3.0 0.9–7.1 | >99 | 0.0 (0–0) | ||||
| Se Acabó La Fiesta | 2.7 1.0–6.0 | >99 | 0.0 (0–0) |
Most likely splits
- PP 3 · PSOE + Frente Amplio 184 %
- PP 2 · PSOE + Frente Amplio 27 %
- PP 3 · Vox 15 %
- PSOE + Frente Amplio 3 · PP 14 %
% vote: list estimate (mean and 95% interval), share of votes for lists. Columns 0, 1, 2…: probability (%) of each number of senators; Mean (95%): expected senators and 95% range.
Senators elected in 2023
| Senator | Party | Votes |
|---|---|---|
| Paloma Inés Sanz Jerónimo | PP | 40,424 |
| Juan José Sanz Vitorio | PP | 39,439 |
| María Angeles García Herrero | PP | 38,781 |
| María del Lirio Martín García | PSOE | 27,996 |
2023 result
| Party | % | 2023 seats | With 2026 seats |
|---|---|---|---|
| PP | 45.0 | 2 | 2 |
| PSOE | 30.6 | 1 | 1 |
| Vox | 14.1 | – | – |
| Frente Amplio | 8.1 | – | – |
The last seat, 2026 forecast
| Holds it | Just short | |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | PP · 49 % | Vox · 51 % |
| 2 | Vox · 33 % | PP · 39 % |
| 3 | PSOE · 18 % | PSOE · 9 % |
| 4 | Frente Amplio · <1 % | Frente Amplio · <1 % |
Votes the challenger would need: median 3,123 (interquartile range 1,464–5,640), 3.39 % of valid votes. Across the 50,000 forecast simulations.
The last seat, 2008–2023
| Election | Won by | Runner-up | Transfer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2008 | PP | PSOE | 7,189 |
| 2011 | PSOE | PP | 5,542 |
| 2015 | PP | Cs | 1,618 |
| 2016 | PSOE | Cs | 2,710 |
| 2019A | Cs | PSOE | 3,611 |
| 2019N | VOX | PP | 361 |
| 2023 | PP | PSOE | 6,391 |
Votes the runner-up would need to take from the winner to flip the seat.