12 seats · estimated turnout 73.9 % (2023: 68.7 %)
Sevilla
Preliminary forecast updated 20 October 2026, from 50,000 simulations.
Estimated vote
PP31.2 %23.9–38.9
PSOE26.0 %19.4–33.2
Vox19.8 %14.3–26.1
Adelante Andalucía9.3 %4.3–17.3
Por Andalucía5.8 %2.6–11.1
Podemos2.1 %0.7–4.8
Se Acabó La Fiesta1.9 %0.7–4.1
Dot: mean; bar: 95% of simulations. Share of valid votes.
Seats
| Party | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 95 % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PP | 6 | 51 | 40 | 4 | 4 (3–6) | |||||||||
| PSOE | 2 | 41 | 51 | 6 | 4 (3–5) | |||||||||
| Vox | 40 | 56 | 4 | 3 (2–4) | ||||||||||
| Adelante Andalucía | 17 | 70 | 12 | 1 | 1 (0–2) | |||||||||
| Por Andalucía | 68 | 31 | 1 | 0 (0–1) |
Probability (%) of each seat count. 95%: median and 95% range of simulations.
The closest seat
4.º seat for PSOE: 57 %; challenger PP (44 %).
Senate
The Senate in Sevilla
29N forecast
4 senators
| List | % vote | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | Mean (95%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PP | 31.7 24.4–39.3 | 1 | 15 | 16 | 68 | 2.5 (1–3) | |
| PSOE | 26.4 19.7–33.6 | 10 | 62 | 15 | 14 | 1.3 (0–3) | |
| Vox | 20.1 14.5–26.5 | 88 | 10 | 1 | 0.1 (0–1) | ||
| Adelante Andalucía | 9.4 4.3–17.6 | >99 | 0.0 (0–0) | ||||
| Por Andalucía | 5.9 2.6–11.2 | >99 | 0.0 (0–0) | ||||
| Otros | 2.5 0.8–7.5 | >99 | 0.0 (0–0) | ||||
| Podemos | 2.2 0.7–4.8 | >99 | 0.0 (0–0) | ||||
| Se Acabó La Fiesta | 1.9 0.7–4.1 | >99 | 0.0 (0–0) |
Most likely splits
- PP 3 · PSOE 160 %
- PP 2 · PSOE 214 %
- PSOE 3 · PP 113 %
- PP 3 · Vox 18 %
% vote: list estimate (mean and 95% interval), share of votes for lists. Columns 0, 1, 2…: probability (%) of each number of senators; Mean (95%): expected senators and 95% range.
Senators elected in 2023
| Senator | Party | Votes |
|---|---|---|
| Antonio Gutiérrez Limones | PSOE | 382,095 |
| Eva Patricia Bueno Campanario | PSOE | 374,032 |
| Juan Manuel Ávila Gutiérrez | PP | 356,631 |
| Antonio Muñoz Martínez | PSOE | 356,536 |
2023 result
| Party | % | 2023 seats | With 2026 seats |
|---|---|---|---|
| PSOE | 36.6 | 5 | 5 |
| PP | 33.4 | 4 | 4 |
| Por Andalucía | 14.0 | 2 | 2 |
| Vox | 13.3 | 1 | 1 |
The last seat, 2026 forecast
| Holds it | Just short | |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | PP · 32 % | PP · 32 % |
| 2 | PSOE · 28 % | PSOE · 28 % |
| 3 | Vox · 22 % | Vox · 22 % |
| 4 | Adelante Andalucía · 10 % | Adelante Andalucía · 10 % |
Votes the challenger would need: median 13,427 (interquartile range 5,105–28,468), 1.17 % of valid votes. Across the 50,000 forecast simulations.
The last seat, 2008–2023
| Election | Won by | Runner-up | Transfer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2008 | PSOE | PP | 31,973 |
| 2011 | PSOE | PP | 16,111 |
| 2015 | Cs | IU/UP/Sumar | 2,182 |
| 2016 | IU/UP/Sumar | PSOE | 3,864 |
| 2019A | PP | PSOE | 18,033 |
| 2019N | PSOE | VOX | 24,637 |
| 2023 | IU/UP/Sumar | PP | 5,200 |
Votes the runner-up would need to take from the winner to flip the seat.