2 seats · estimated turnout 74.7 % (2023: 67.5 %)
Soria
Preliminary forecast updated 20 October 2026, from 50,000 simulations.
Estimated vote
PP33.1 %19.1–45.0
PSOE22.6 %12.7–32.0
Vox14.0 %7.7–20.8
Se Acabó La Fiesta2.5 %0.8–5.8
Frente Amplio2.1 %0.8–4.4
Podemos1.7 %0.5–4.0
Dot: mean; bar: 95% of simulations. Share of valid votes.
Seats
| Party | 0 | 1 | 2 | 95 % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PP | 93 | 7 | 1 (1–2) | |
| PSOE | 9 | 91 | 1 (0–1) |
Probability (%) of each seat count. 95%: median and 95% range of simulations.
The closest seat
1.º seat for PSOE: 91 %; challenger PP (7 %).
Senate
The Senate in Soria
29N forecast
4 senators · joint PSOE + Frente Amplio list
| List | % vote | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | Mean (95%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PP | 33.3 19.4–45.1 | 5 | 10 | 84 | 2.8 (1–3) | ||
| Otros | 24.5 11.2–53.9 | 58 | 42 | 0.4 (0–1) | |||
| PSOE + Frente Amplio | 23.9 13.6–33.4 | 34 | 55 | 7 | 4 | 0.8 (0–3) | |
| Vox | 14.1 7.8–20.9 | >99 | 0.0 (0–0) | ||||
| Se Acabó La Fiesta | 2.5 0.8–5.8 | >99 | 0.0 (0–0) | ||||
| Podemos | 1.7 0.5–4.0 | >99 | 0.0 (0–0) |
Most likely splits
- PP 3 · PSOE + Frente Amplio 150 %
- PP 3 · Otros 134 %
- PP 2 · PSOE + Frente Amplio 25 %
- PP 2 · PSOE + Frente Amplio 1 · Otros 15 %
% vote: list estimate (mean and 95% interval), share of votes for lists. Columns 0, 1, 2…: probability (%) of each number of senators; Mean (95%): expected senators and 95% range.
Senators elected in 2023
| Senator | Party | Votes |
|---|---|---|
| José Manuel Hernando García | PP | 18,456 |
| Javier Jiménez Santamaría | PP | 17,796 |
| María Cristina Rubio Blasco | PP | 17,280 |
| Javier Antón Cacho | PSOE | 14,611 |
2023 result
| Party | % | 2023 seats | With 2026 seats |
|---|---|---|---|
| PP | 37.2 | 1 | 1 |
| PSOE | 29.5 | 1 | 1 |
| SY | 19.1 | – | – |
| Vox | 9.8 | – | – |
| Frente Amplio | 3.4 | – | – |
The last seat, 2026 forecast
| Holds it | Just short | |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | PSOE · 87 % | PP · 70 % |
| 2 | PP · 11 % | Vox · 20 % |
| 3 | Vox · 2 % | PSOE · 10 % |
| 4 | Se Acabó La Fiesta · <1 % | Se Acabó La Fiesta · <1 % |
Votes the challenger would need: median 4,567 (interquartile range 2,322–7,459), 8.92 % of valid votes. Across the 50,000 forecast simulations.
The last seat, 2008–2023
| Election | Won by | Runner-up | Transfer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2008 | PSOE | PP | 6,611 |
| 2011 | PSOE | PP | 1,357 |
| 2015 | PSOE | PP | 1,544 |
| 2016 | PSOE | PP | 1,087 |
| 2019A | PP | Cs | 2,694 |
| 2019N | PP | PSOE | 4,817 |
| 2023 | PSOE | SY | 2,635 |
Votes the runner-up would need to take from the winner to flip the seat.