6 seats · estimated turnout 71.1 % (2023: 62.4 %)
Tarragona
Preliminary forecast updated 20 October 2026, from 50,000 simulations.
Estimated vote
PSC29.9 %22.0–37.7
ERC16.7 %9.9–27.2
PP16.3 %11.3–21.9
Vox16.1 %10.8–22.0
Junts8.3 %4.3–14.5
Frente Amplio6.4 %2.8–12.3
Se Acabó La Fiesta1.6 %0.6–3.6
Dot: mean; bar: 95% of simulations. Share of valid votes.
Seats
| Party | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 95 % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PSC | 1 | 50 | 49 | 2 (2–3) | ||||
| ERC | 3 | 81 | 15 | 1 (0–2) | ||||
| PP | 1 | 91 | 8 | 1 (1–2) | ||||
| Vox | 2 | 90 | 8 | 1 (1–2) | ||||
| Junts | 83 | 17 | 0 (0–1) | |||||
| Frente Amplio | 93 | 7 | 0 (0–1) |
Probability (%) of each seat count. 95%: median and 95% range of simulations.
In Catalonia the PSOE runs as the PSC (same colour).
The closest seat
3.º seat for PSC: 49 %; challenger Junts (17 %).
Senate
The Senate in Tarragona
29N forecast
4 senators
| List | % vote | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | Mean (95%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PSC | 30.3 22.4–38.0 | 4 | 4 | 92 | 2.9 (1–3) | ||
| ERC | 16.9 10.0–27.5 | 62 | 33 | 2 | 3 | 0.5 (0–3) | |
| PP | 16.5 11.5–22.1 | 68 | 31 | 0.3 (0–1) | |||
| Vox | 16.3 11.0–22.2 | 71 | 28 | 0.3 (0–1) | |||
| Junts | 8.4 4.4–14.6 | 99 | 0.0 (0–0) | ||||
| Frente Amplio | 6.5 2.8–12.4 | >99 | 0.0 (0–0) | ||||
| Otros | 3.5 1.2–10.5 | >99 | 0.0 (0–0) | ||||
| Se Acabó La Fiesta | 1.6 0.6–3.6 | >99 | 0.0 (0–0) |
Most likely splits
- PSC 3 · ERC 133 %
- PSC 3 · PP 130 %
- PSC 3 · Vox 127 %
- ERC 3 · PSC 13 %
% vote: list estimate (mean and 95% interval), share of votes for lists. Columns 0, 1, 2…: probability (%) of each number of senators; Mean (95%): expected senators and 95% range.
Senators elected in 2023
| Senator | Party | Votes |
|---|---|---|
| Manel de la Vega Carrera | PSC | 108,820 |
| Núria Rovira Costas | PSC | 106,336 |
| Mario Soler Santos | PSC | 99,154 |
| Jordi Gaseni Blanch | ERC-ESQUERRES PER LA INDEPENDÈNCIA | 71,440 |
2023 result
| Party | % | 2023 seats | With 2026 seats |
|---|---|---|---|
| PSC | 32.9 | 2 | 2 |
| ERC | 15.1 | 1 | 1 |
| PP | 13.9 | 1 | 1 |
| Frente Amplio | 11.3 | 1 | 1 |
| Junts | 11.1 | 1 | 1 |
| Vox | 10.3 | – | – |
| CUP-PR | 2.4 | – | – |
| PACMA | 1.0 | – | – |
The last seat, 2026 forecast
| Holds it | Just short | |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | PSC · 48 % | PSC · 29 % |
| 2 | ERC · 16 % | ERC · 18 % |
| 3 | Junts · 11 % | PP · 18 % |
| 4 | Vox · 11 % | Vox · 16 % |
Votes the challenger would need: median 8,582 (interquartile range 3,623–16,950), 2.03 % of valid votes. Across the 50,000 forecast simulations.
The last seat, 2008–2023
| Election | Won by | Runner-up | Transfer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2008 | PSOE | CiU/Junts | 3,349 |
| 2011 | PP | CiU/Junts | 6,848 |
| 2015 | PP | IU/UP/Sumar | 4,734 |
| 2016 | Cs | IU/UP/Sumar | 946 |
| 2019A | IU/UP/Sumar | PSOE | 4,103 |
| 2019N | PSOE | ERC | 4,672 |
| 2023 | CiU/Junts | PSOE | 312 |
Votes the runner-up would need to take from the winner to flip the seat.