3 seats · estimated turnout 77.0 % (2023: 72.0 %)
Teruel
Preliminary forecast updated 20 October 2026, from 50,000 simulations.
Estimated vote
PP31.2 %18.8–42.2
PSOE22.7 %13.5–31.9
Vox17.1 %9.8–24.9
CHA-Frente Amplio2.9 %1.1–6.1
Se Acabó La Fiesta2.7 %0.9–6.1
Podemos2.4 %0.7–5.7
Dot: mean; bar: 95% of simulations. Share of valid votes.
Seats
| Party | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 95 % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PP | 65 | 36 | 1 (1–2) | ||
| PSOE | 2 | 96 | 2 | 1 (1–1) | |
| Vox | 35 | 65 | 1 (0–1) |
Probability (%) of each seat count. 95%: median and 95% range of simulations.
The closest seat
1.º seat for Vox: 65 %; challenger PP (36 %).
Senate
The Senate in Teruel
29N forecast
4 senators · joint PSOE + Frente Amplio list
| List | % vote | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | Mean (95%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PP | 31.4 19.1–42.3 | 2 | 11 | 15 | 73 | 2.6 (1–3) | |
| PSOE + Frente Amplio | 24.8 15.0–34.3 | 26 | 54 | 12 | 9 | 1.0 (0–3) | |
| Otros | 21.5 9.5–49.2 | 68 | 33 | 0.3 (0–1) | |||
| Vox | 17.2 9.9–25.0 | 95 | 4 | 0.1 (0–1) | |||
| Se Acabó La Fiesta | 2.7 0.9–6.1 | >99 | 0.0 (0–0) | ||||
| Podemos | 2.4 0.7–5.7 | >99 | 0.0 (0–0) |
Most likely splits
- PP 3 · PSOE + Frente Amplio 148 %
- PP 3 · Otros 122 %
- PP 2 · PSOE + Frente Amplio 29 %
- PSOE + Frente Amplio 3 · PP 17 %
% vote: list estimate (mean and 95% interval), share of votes for lists. Columns 0, 1, 2…: probability (%) of each number of senators; Mean (95%): expected senators and 95% range.
Senators elected in 2023
| Senator | Party | Votes |
|---|---|---|
| Emma Buj Sánchez | PP | 27,056 |
| Carmen Pobo Sánchez | PP | 25,719 |
| Carlos Boné Amela | PP | 25,359 |
| María José Villalba Chavarría | PSOE | 21,524 |
2023 result
| Party | % | 2023 seats | With 2026 seats |
|---|---|---|---|
| PP | 35.0 | 2 | 2 |
| PSOE | 29.3 | 1 | 1 |
| EXISTE | 15.0 | – | – |
| Vox | 13.1 | – | – |
| CHA-Frente Amplio | 5.4 | – | – |
The last seat, 2026 forecast
| Holds it | Just short | |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vox · 55 % | PP · 58 % |
| 2 | PP · 33 % | Vox · 31 % |
| 3 | PSOE · 12 % | PSOE · 11 % |
| 4 | Se Acabó La Fiesta · <1 % | Podemos · <1 % |
Votes the challenger would need: median 2,759 (interquartile range 1,168–5,528), 3.58 % of valid votes. Across the 50,000 forecast simulations.
The last seat, 2008–2023
| Election | Won by | Runner-up | Transfer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2008 | PSOE | PP | 2,116 |
| 2011 | PP | PSOE | 7,284 |
| 2015 | PP | IU/UP/Sumar | 1,498 |
| 2016 | PP | IU/UP/Sumar | 1,933 |
| 2019A | Cs | PSOE | 1,695 |
| 2019N | PP | Teruel Existe | 5,093 |
| 2023 | PP | Teruel Existe | 1,297 |
Votes the runner-up would need to take from the winner to flip the seat.