6 seats · estimated turnout 76.6 % (2023: 72.4 %)
Toledo
Preliminary forecast updated 20 October 2026, from 50,000 simulations.
Estimated vote
PP35.2 %27.1–44.0
PSOE26.5 %19.5–34.3
Vox25.9 %18.8–34.0
Frente Amplio4.2 %1.8–8.2
Se Acabó La Fiesta2.9 %1.0–6.3
Podemos2.8 %0.9–6.2
Dot: mean; bar: 95% of simulations. Share of valid votes.
Seats
| Party | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 95 % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PP | 55 | 44 | 2 (2–3) | |||||
| PSOE | 22 | 76 | 2 | 2 (1–2) | ||||
| Vox | 28 | 71 | 2 | 2 (1–2) |
Probability (%) of each seat count. 95%: median and 95% range of simulations.
The closest seat
2.º seat for Vox: 72 %; challenger PP (45 %).
Senate
The Senate in Toledo
29N forecast
4 senators · joint PSOE + Frente Amplio list
| List | % vote | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | Mean (95%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PP | 35.6 27.4–44.3 | 3 | 17 | 18 | 62 | 2.4 (0–3) | |
| PSOE + Frente Amplio | 29.8 22.6–37.9 | 24 | 49 | 14 | 13 | 1.2 (0–3) | |
| Vox | 26.2 19.0–34.3 | 67 | 24 | 5 | 4 | 0.5 (0–3) | |
| Se Acabó La Fiesta | 2.9 1.0–6.3 | >99 | 0.0 (0–0) | ||||
| Podemos | 2.8 0.9–6.3 | >99 | 0.0 (0–0) | ||||
| Otros | 2.8 0.8–6.4 | >99 | 0.0 (0–0) |
Most likely splits
- PP 3 · PSOE + Frente Amplio 144 %
- PP 3 · Vox 117 %
- PP 2 · PSOE + Frente Amplio 211 %
- PSOE + Frente Amplio 3 · PP 111 %
% vote: list estimate (mean and 95% interval), share of votes for lists. Columns 0, 1, 2…: probability (%) of each number of senators; Mean (95%): expected senators and 95% range.
Senators elected in 2023
| Senator | Party | Votes |
|---|---|---|
| Vicente Tirado Ochoa | PP | 152,356 |
| Israel Roberto Pérez Jiménez | PP | 148,728 |
| Carmen Riolobos Regadera | PP | 147,509 |
| José Manuel Tofiño Pérez | PSOE | 130,046 |
2023 result
| Party | % | 2023 seats | With 2026 seats |
|---|---|---|---|
| PP | 37.8 | 3 | 3 |
| PSOE | 32.6 | 2 | 2 |
| Vox | 19.6 | 1 | 1 |
| Frente Amplio | 8.2 | – | – |
The last seat, 2026 forecast
| Holds it | Just short | |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vox · 34 % | PP · 46 % |
| 2 | PSOE · 34 % | Vox · 28 % |
| 3 | PP · 32 % | PSOE · 26 % |
| 4 | Frente Amplio · <1 % | Frente Amplio · <1 % |
Votes the challenger would need: median 12,716 (interquartile range 5,547–24,178), 3.03 % of valid votes. Across the 50,000 forecast simulations.
The last seat, 2008–2023
| Election | Won by | Runner-up | Transfer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2008 | PSOE | PP | 10,157 |
| 2011 | PP | PSOE | 30,165 |
| 2015 | IU/UP/Sumar | PP | 2,080 |
| 2016 | PSOE | Cs | 775 |
| 2019A | PP | IU/UP/Sumar | 1,089 |
| 2019N | VOX | PSOE | 5,117 |
| 2023 | PP | PSOE | 10,231 |
Votes the runner-up would need to take from the winner to flip the seat.